數據顯示，比特幣（BTC）市場處於冷靜階段，而非逆轉

比特幣最近飆升至 108,000 美元上方，但隨後面臨價格調整。這引發了人們對市場未來的擔憂。

Recent price action has seen Bitcoin (BTC) surging past $108,000 before facing a price correction, sparking contrasting views on the market’s future trajectory. While the majority still anticipate the bull market continuing, some now worry that the correction, which began in March, may continue to linger.

最近的價格走勢使比特幣 (BTC) 在面臨價格調整之前飆升至 108,000 美元以上，引發了人們對市場未來軌蹟的截然不同的看法。雖然大多數人仍然預計牛市將持續，但有些人現在擔心三月開始的調整可能會繼續持續下去。

However, onchain data from CryptoQuant suggests that the market is not yet in full reversal but rather in a cooling-off phase. Several key indicators can be used to gauge this.

然而，CryptoQuant 的鏈上數據表明，市場尚未完全逆轉，而是處於冷靜階段。可以使用幾個關鍵指標來衡量這一點。

One important indicator is the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR). This metric filters out short-term noise by removing observations less than one hour and applies a seven-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Currently, the SOPR (7-SMA) is above 1 but declining. Historically, when Bitcoin’s SOPR drops below 1, the coin tends to bounce upward afterward as selling below the cost basis triggers a shift in market sentiment.

一項重要指標是調整後支出產出利潤率（aSOPR）。該指標透過刪除不到一小時的觀察值來過濾短期噪音，並應用 7 天簡單移動平均線 (SMA)。目前，SOPR (7-SMA) 高於 1，但正在下降。從歷史上看，當比特幣的 SOPR 跌破 1 時，比特幣往往會隨後向上反彈，因為低於成本基礎的拋售會引發市場情緒的轉變。

Miners are holding Bitcoin, suggesting a cooling-off in bull market

礦工持有比特幣，顯示牛市降溫

Another key indicator is the Miner Position Index (MPI), which monitors Bitcoin sales and the level of miner activity. Halving events usually see miners selling BTC closer to or before the market peaks. As of now, the MPI is decreasing, and there haven’t been many Bitcoin transfers to exchanges, indicating that the miners are holding the Bitcoin and do not plan on selling it anytime soon. However, smaller sales for operational costs might still occur.

另一個關鍵指標是礦工頭寸指數（MPI），它監控比特幣銷售和礦工活動水準。減半事件通常會導致礦工在接近市場高峰或之前拋售比特幣。截至目前，MPI正在下降，並且沒有太多比特幣轉移到交易所，這表明礦工正在持有比特幣，並且不打算很快出售它。然而，出於營運成本考慮，銷售額可能仍會減少。

The total network fees also highlight the activity of on-chain transactions. The fees are already decreasing, suggesting a reduction in on-chain activity. This drop could be due to the lower trading activity in the market now. It serves as an indication that the market overheated earlier on, but now this heat is cooling off.

網路費用總額也凸顯了鏈上交易的活躍程度。費用已經在下降，表明鏈上活動減少。這一下降可能是由於目前市場交易活動減少所致。這表明市場早些時候過熱，但現在這種熱度正在降溫。

Furthermore, funding rates, which reflect market sentiment, have declined. Historically, periods of extreme drops in funding rates have ended poorly, except when the rates turn negative, in which case Bitcoin has performed its best. Another price recovery could be on the cards if this scenario plays out.

此外，反映市場情緒的融資利率也有所下降。從歷史上看，融資利率極度下降的時期結局不佳，除非利率變為負值，在這種情況下，比特幣表現最佳。如果這種情況發生，價格可能會再次回升。

As the correction unfolds, onchain data signals that the bull market is still continuing, with the current phase being more akin to a cooling-off period rather than a closing period of the cycle. However, the market remains volatile in the short term, and investors are advised to zoom out and not chase quick gains.

隨著調整的展開，鏈上數據顯示牛市仍在繼續，當前階段更像是冷靜期，而不是週期的結束期。但短期內市場仍處於震盪格局，建議投資人謹慎觀望，不宜急功近利。