比特币（BTC）ETF采用的下一个重大激增将来自主要的电线房屋

在彭博社智能研究分析师纳塔莉·布鲁内尔（Nathalie Brunell）主持的《 Coinstories》的最新一集中，播客的最新一集播客中，概述了为什么下一个比特币交换基金（ETF）采用的重要激增可能来自诸如UBS，UBS，Morgan Stanley和Merrilllilllych之类的主要金属线。

In the latest episode of the Coinstories podcast with Nathalie Brunell, James Seyffart, a research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, explained why the next significant surge of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) adoption is likely to come from major wirehouses, such as UBS, Morgan Stanley, and Merrill Lynch.

在与纳塔莉·布鲁内尔（Nathalie Brunell）的播客的最新一集中，彭博社情报公司的研究分析师詹姆斯·塞夫特（James Seyffart）解释了为什么比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）采用的下一个重要激增可能来自主要的螺丝，例如ubs，Morgan Stanley和Merrill Lynch。

These large institutions, which typically manage the portfolios of high-net-worth individuals, have not yet broadly recommended Bitcoin ETFs—but Seyffart believes that when they do, it could spark a momentous wave in the market.

这些通常管理高净值个人投资组合的大型机构尚未广泛推荐比特币ETF，但Seyffart认为，当他们这样做时，它可能会在市场上引发一大笔钱。

Bitcoin ETFs See Record-Breaking Inflows

比特币ETF查看创纪录的流入

Discussing the unprecedented success of spot ETFs since they began trading in 2024, Seyffart drew a comparison to gold ETFs launched decades prior. In his words: “My favorite chart of this is if you just look at the gold ETF asset growth over time… Bitcoin ETFs blow away everything you can possibly look at. Even if you adjust inflation-adjust, it doesn’t matter.”

自2024年开始交易以来，Seyffart讨论了Spot ETF的前所未有的成功，与Gold ETF进行了比较，几十年来。用他的话说：“我最喜欢的图表是，如果您只看金ETF资产的增长，那么比特币ETF吹走了您可能看到的一切。即使您调整通货膨胀次数，也没关系。”

He explained how the most widely traded spot Bitcoin ETF—BlackRock’s IBIT—rapidly approached the asset size of older gold ETFs, underscoring how quickly it gathered investor funds. At its January peak of around $122–123 billion in assets, Bitcoin ETFs were nearing the roughly $130 billion held by early-mover gold ETFs launched in 2004. “IBIT is the fastest ETF to $50 billion as an entire category,” Seyffart noted, emphasizing that the fund met this threshold in a matter of a couple of hundred days. “The previous record was over a thousand days.”

他解释了交易最广泛的现货比特币ETF（Blackrock's Ibit）如何依靠较旧的黄金ETF的资产规模，强调了它收集投资者资金的速度。在1月份的资产约为1,22-1230亿美元的高峰上，比特币ETF接近2004年推出的早期摩尔黄金ETF持有的大约1300亿美元。“ IBIT是整个类别的最快ETF，这是整个类别的500亿美元，” Seyffart指出，这笔资金指出，这笔资金在一位夫妇中遇到了这一thershold，这是一位夫妇的Thereshold。 “先前的纪录是一千天。”

Although the strength of BTC’s price performance helped amplify the total assets under management, Seyffart stressed that the capital inflows themselves were striking. He cited the peak at about “just over $40 billion” of inflows in under a year, with overall spot ETF assets still hovering over $100 billion.

尽管BTC的价格绩效的实力有助于扩大管理的总资产，但Seyffart强调资本流入本身令人震惊。他在一年不到一年的时间内将这一峰值提高了大约“超过400亿美元”的流入，总体ETF资产仍徘徊在1000亿美元以上。

While a variety of spot Bitcoin ETFs exist, with numerous asset managers launching their own funds, IBIT has “truly run away” in terms of both assets and liquidity, according to Seyffart. He detailed how funds from Fidelity (FBTC), Grayscale (GBTC), Ark Invest, Bitwise, and VanEck are still profitable, but none come close to matching IBIT’s daily trading volume and market depth.

据Seyffart称，尽管存在各种现货比特币ETF，但众多资产经理启动了自己的资金，IBIT在资产和流动性方面“真正逃跑”。他详细介绍了Fidelity（FBTC），Grayscale（GBTC），ARK Invest，Bitwise和Vaneck的资金仍然可以盈利，但没有一个接近Ibit的日常交易量和市场深度。

Citing 13F filings—forms certain institutional investors must file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission—Seyffart said that as of late 2024, approximately 25% of ETF holdings can be directly attributed to institutions that meet the filing criteria. He further explained that hedge funds appear to be the single largest identifiable group among those filers: “The biggest holders, ironically enough, are hedge funds… $10 plus billion worth of these things.”

Seyffart援引13F文件（某些机构投资者必须向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件）表示，截至2024年底，大约25％的ETF控股可以直接归因于符合申请标准的机构。他进一步解释说，对冲基金似乎是这些申报人中最大的可识别群体：“具有讽刺意味的是，最大的持有人是对冲基金……其中价值100亿美元。”

A significant portion of hedge fund interest, according to Seyffart, comes from a “basis trade,” a near-arbitrage strategy in which managers buy the spot Bitcoin ETF while simultaneously shorting the futures market. Because bitcoin futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) can carry a premium, traders seek to pocket the spread when the futures contract settles.

根据Seyffart的说法，对冲基金利益的很大一部分来自“基础贸易”，这是一种近乎障碍的战略，在该战略中，管理人员同时缩短了期货市场，在该战略中，管理人员购买了现货比特币ETF。由于在芝加哥商业交易所（CME）上交易的比特币期货可以携带溢价，因此当期货合同定居时，交易者试图赚钱。

He described this approach as “delta neutral,” meaning it does not directly push Bitcoin’s price higher or lower: “It’s basically risk-free… You’re selling forward the futures contracts because there’s a persistent premium and offsetting that with the ETFs. So it shouldn’t really impact price in some massive way.”

他将这种方法描述为“三角洲中立”，这意味着它并不能直接推高比特币的价格更高或更低：“基本上是无风险的……您正在向期货合约出售，因为有持续的保费并与ETF相抵消。因此，它不会真正以某种方式影响价格。”

The Next Big Catalyst

下一个大催化剂

According to Seyffart, wirehouses and other top-tier wealth managers control trillions in assets, and many of them have yet to systematically offer or recommend Bitcoin ETFs. Current protocol at some of these firms allows clients to request Bitcoin ETF purchases, but does not permit advisors to recommend them proactively. “If you say, ‘You’re my advisor and I want you to put 2% in Bitcoin,’ in most cases they can do that. But they’re not allowed to come to you and say, ‘I recommend it,’” Seyffart noted, referencing how many major brokerages classify Bitcoin-focused investing.

根据Seyffart的说法，电线房和其他顶级财富管理人员控制着数万亿资产，其中许多人尚未系统地提供或推荐比特币ETF。这些公司的当前协议允许客户要求购买比特币ETF，但不允许顾问主动推荐它们。 “如果您说，'您是我的顾问，我希望您将2％的比特币放在比特币上，那么在大多数情况下，他们可以做到这一点。但是，他们不允许他们来找您说：“我推荐”。

He emphasized that this restriction is likely to ease over time. As soon as the largest wirehouses and brokerages more widely approve of or officially recommend BTC ETF positions—such as a “2% or 5% satellite portion” of a typical portfolio—Bitcoin ETF adoption could surge to new levels.

他强调，这种限制可能会随着时间的流逝而缓解。一旦最大的电线房和经纪人更广泛地批准或正式建议BTC ETF职位，例如典型投资组合的“ 2％或5％的卫星部分”，Bitcoin ETF的采用可能会提高到新的水平。

Seyffart stated: “The next big wave of adoption is […] corporations possibly buying [Bitcoin], obviously nations and states potentially adding this to their balance sheets, is another big thing. But for the ETF side of things, it’s really those wirehouses and advisers; they control trillions of dollars of assets, like they’re the people who manage the money of really wealthy people.”

Seyffart表示：“下一个大浪潮是[…]公司可能购买[比特币]，显然是国家和州可能将其添加到其资产负债表中，这是另一回事。但是对于事物的ETF方面，实际上是那些电线房和顾问。他们控制着数万亿美元的资产，就像是管理真正有钱人的钱的人一样。”

He added the wirehouses “control the money of centimillionaires, billionaires, you name it

他添加了电线座“控制着千里的钱，亿万富翁，你命名