比特幣（BTC）ETF採用的下一個重大激增將來自主要的電線房屋

在彭博社智能研究分析師納塔莉·布魯內爾（Nathalie Brunell）主持的《 Coinstories》的最新一集中，播客的最新一集播客中，概述了為什麼下一個比特幣交換基金（ETF）採用的重要激增可能來自諸如UBS，UBS，Morgan Stanley和Merrilllilllych之類的主要金屬線。

In the latest episode of the Coinstories podcast with Nathalie Brunell, James Seyffart, a research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, explained why the next significant surge of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) adoption is likely to come from major wirehouses, such as UBS, Morgan Stanley, and Merrill Lynch.

在與納塔莉·布魯內爾（Nathalie Brunell）的播客的最新一集中，彭博社情報公司的研究分析師詹姆斯·塞夫特（James Seyffart）解釋了為什麼比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）採用的下一個重要激增可能來自主要的螺絲，例如ubs，Morgan Stanley和Merrill Lynch。

These large institutions, which typically manage the portfolios of high-net-worth individuals, have not yet broadly recommended Bitcoin ETFs—but Seyffart believes that when they do, it could spark a momentous wave in the market.

這些通常管理高淨值個人投資組合的大型機構尚未廣泛推薦比特幣ETF，但Seyffart認為，當他們這樣做時，它可能會在市場上引發一大筆錢。

Bitcoin ETFs See Record-Breaking Inflows

比特幣ETF查看創紀錄的流入

Discussing the unprecedented success of spot ETFs since they began trading in 2024, Seyffart drew a comparison to gold ETFs launched decades prior. In his words: “My favorite chart of this is if you just look at the gold ETF asset growth over time… Bitcoin ETFs blow away everything you can possibly look at. Even if you adjust inflation-adjust, it doesn’t matter.”

自2024年開始交易以來，Seyffart討論了Spot ETF的前所未有的成功，與Gold ETF進行了比較，幾十年來。用他的話說：“我最喜歡的圖表是，如果您只看金ETF資產的增長，那麼比特幣ETF吹走了您可能看到的一切。即使您調整通貨膨脹次數，也沒關係。”

He explained how the most widely traded spot Bitcoin ETF—BlackRock’s IBIT—rapidly approached the asset size of older gold ETFs, underscoring how quickly it gathered investor funds. At its January peak of around $122–123 billion in assets, Bitcoin ETFs were nearing the roughly $130 billion held by early-mover gold ETFs launched in 2004. “IBIT is the fastest ETF to $50 billion as an entire category,” Seyffart noted, emphasizing that the fund met this threshold in a matter of a couple of hundred days. “The previous record was over a thousand days.”

他解釋了交易最廣泛的現貨比特幣ETF（Blackrock's Ibit）如何依靠較舊的黃金ETF的資產規模，強調了它收集投資者資金的速度。在1月份的資產約為1,22-1230億美元的高峰上，比特幣ETF接近2004年推出的早期摩爾黃金ETF持有的大約1300億美元。“ IBIT是整個類別的最快ETF，這是整個類別的500億美元，” Seyffart指出，這筆資金指出，這筆資金在一位夫婦中遇到了這一thershold，這是一位夫婦的Thereshold。 “先前的紀錄是一千天。”

Although the strength of BTC’s price performance helped amplify the total assets under management, Seyffart stressed that the capital inflows themselves were striking. He cited the peak at about “just over $40 billion” of inflows in under a year, with overall spot ETF assets still hovering over $100 billion.

儘管BTC的價格績效的實力有助於擴大管理的總資產，但Seyffart強調資本流入本身令人震驚。他在一年不到一年的時間內將這一峰值提高了大約“超過400億美元”的流入，總體ETF資產仍徘徊在1000億美元以上。

While a variety of spot Bitcoin ETFs exist, with numerous asset managers launching their own funds, IBIT has “truly run away” in terms of both assets and liquidity, according to Seyffart. He detailed how funds from Fidelity (FBTC), Grayscale (GBTC), Ark Invest, Bitwise, and VanEck are still profitable, but none come close to matching IBIT’s daily trading volume and market depth.

據Seyffart稱，儘管存在各種現貨比特幣ETF，但眾多資產經理啟動了自己的資金，IBIT在資產和流動性方面“真正逃跑”。他詳細介紹了Fidelity（FBTC），Grayscale（GBTC），ARK Invest，Bitwise和Vaneck的資金仍然可以盈利，但沒有一個接近Ibit的日常交易量和市場深度。

Citing 13F filings—forms certain institutional investors must file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission—Seyffart said that as of late 2024, approximately 25% of ETF holdings can be directly attributed to institutions that meet the filing criteria. He further explained that hedge funds appear to be the single largest identifiable group among those filers: “The biggest holders, ironically enough, are hedge funds… $10 plus billion worth of these things.”

Seyffart援引13F文件（某些機構投資者必須向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件）表示，截至2024年底，大約25％的ETF控股可以直接歸因於符合申請標準的機構。他進一步解釋說，對沖基金似乎是這些申報人中最大的可識別群體：“具有諷刺意味的是，最大的持有人是對沖基金……其中價值100億美元。”

A significant portion of hedge fund interest, according to Seyffart, comes from a “basis trade,” a near-arbitrage strategy in which managers buy the spot Bitcoin ETF while simultaneously shorting the futures market. Because bitcoin futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) can carry a premium, traders seek to pocket the spread when the futures contract settles.

根據Seyffart的說法，對沖基金利益的很大一部分來自“基礎貿易”，這是一種近乎障礙的戰略，在該戰略中，管理人員同時縮短了期貨市場，在該戰略中，管理人員購買了現貨比特幣ETF。由於在芝加哥商業交易所（CME）上交易的比特幣期貨可以攜帶溢價，因此當期貨合同定居時，交易者試圖賺錢。

He described this approach as “delta neutral,” meaning it does not directly push Bitcoin’s price higher or lower: “It’s basically risk-free… You’re selling forward the futures contracts because there’s a persistent premium and offsetting that with the ETFs. So it shouldn’t really impact price in some massive way.”

他將這種方法描述為“三角洲中立”，這意味著它並不能直接推高比特幣的價格更高或更低：“基本上是無風險的……您正在向期貨合約出售，因為有持續的保費並與ETF相抵消。因此，它不會真正以某種方式影響價格。”

The Next Big Catalyst

下一個大催化劑

According to Seyffart, wirehouses and other top-tier wealth managers control trillions in assets, and many of them have yet to systematically offer or recommend Bitcoin ETFs. Current protocol at some of these firms allows clients to request Bitcoin ETF purchases, but does not permit advisors to recommend them proactively. “If you say, ‘You’re my advisor and I want you to put 2% in Bitcoin,’ in most cases they can do that. But they’re not allowed to come to you and say, ‘I recommend it,’” Seyffart noted, referencing how many major brokerages classify Bitcoin-focused investing.

根據Seyffart的說法，電線房和其他頂級財富管理人員控制著數万億資產，其中許多人尚未系統地提供或推薦比特幣ETF。這些公司的當前協議允許客戶要求購買比特幣ETF，但不允許顧問主動推薦它們。 “如果您說，'您是我的顧問，我希望您將2％的比特幣放在比特幣上，那麼在大多數情況下，他們可以做到這一點。但是，他們不允許他們來找您說：“我推薦”。

He emphasized that this restriction is likely to ease over time. As soon as the largest wirehouses and brokerages more widely approve of or officially recommend BTC ETF positions—such as a “2% or 5% satellite portion” of a typical portfolio—Bitcoin ETF adoption could surge to new levels.

他強調，這種限制可能會隨著時間的流逝而緩解。一旦最大的電線房和經紀人更廣泛地批准或正式建議BTC ETF職位，例如典型投資組合的“ 2％或5％的衛星部分”，Bitcoin ETF的採用可能會提高到新的水平。

Seyffart stated: “The next big wave of adoption is […] corporations possibly buying [Bitcoin], obviously nations and states potentially adding this to their balance sheets, is another big thing. But for the ETF side of things, it’s really those wirehouses and advisers; they control trillions of dollars of assets, like they’re the people who manage the money of really wealthy people.”

Seyffart表示：“下一個大浪潮是[…]公司可能購買[比特幣]，顯然是國家和州可能將其添加到其資產負債表中，這是另一回事。但是對於事物的ETF方面，實際上是那些電線房和顧問。他們控制著數万億美元的資產，就像是管理真正有錢人的錢的人一樣。”

He added the wirehouses “control the money of centimillionaires, billionaires, you name it

他添加了電線座“控制著千里的錢，億萬富翁，你命名