基础：数字资产生态系统的未来

自特朗普获胜以来，COIN和BTC都有明显上涨，但笔者更倾向于ETH，并看好Base L2生态的发展。

After Trump's victory on November 5, COIN and BTC led the way, rising 70% and 16% respectively. I personally still lean towards ETH, and based on my October writing about MEME coins, I believe several advantageous factors are converging for the Base L2 ecosystem:

11 月 5 日特朗普获胜后，COIN 和 BTC 领涨，分别上涨 70% 和 16%。我个人仍然倾向于 ETH，并且根据我 10 月份关于 MEME 币的文章，我相信 Base L2 生态系统正在汇聚几个有利因素：

"Winning" the competition with other L2s and even the ETH mainnet, becoming the preferred ecosystem to accommodate MEME, consumer dApps, and attract attention.

“赢得”与其他L2甚至ETH主网的竞争，成为容纳MEME、消费者dApp并吸引关注的首选生态系统。

Competing alongside SOL's "fully functional" integrated casino model as a top EVM-compatible ecosystem.

作为顶级 EVM 兼容生态系统，与 SOL 的“功能齐全”集成赌场模型竞争。

My core view is simple: ETH remains the key center of the digital asset ecosystem, and all derivative projects to date rely on two core principles to drive network effects:

我的核心观点很简单：ETH仍然是数字资产生态系统的关键中心，迄今为止所有衍生项目都依赖两个核心原则来驱动网络效应：

a. The "underlying" coin must perform strongly relative to its competitors;

一个。 “基础”代币必须相对于其竞争对手表现强劲；

b. The "underlying" coin must possess "scarcity."

b. “基础”货币必须具有“稀缺性”。

Therefore, in this attention-grabbing competition, most of the time, you are essentially choosing a coin (even if this is just a simplified way) to reflect its advantages. In the coming weeks (this trend has already begun), the CT community will discuss why a certain coin may prevail (e.g., SOL's competitors or MEME coins) or why an application supporting a certain coin may succeed (such as utility tokens, DeFi governance, etc.).

因此，在这种引人注目的竞争中，大多数时候，你本质上是在选择一种币（即使这只是一种简化的方式）来体现它的优势。在未来几周内（这一趋势已经开始），CT社区将讨论为什么某种币可能会盛行（例如SOL的竞争对手或MEME币）或者为什么支持某种币的应用程序可能会成功（例如实用代币、DeFi治理） ， ETC。）。

What I want to propose is that starting today, a more risk-adjusted choice is to bet on an ecosystem without a coin. In my view, the organization of Base creates the strongest potential for its continued adoption, while the double-edged sword is that it may rely on ETH's resurgence.

我想建议的是，从今天开始，一个更具风险调整的选择是押注于一个没有代币的生态系统。在我看来，Base 的组织为其持续采用创造了最强的潜力，而双刃剑是它可能依赖 ETH 的复苏。

However, given that I believe ETH's potential is currently underestimated—if/when the relative values of BTC, ETH, and SOL increase in the coming weeks, there will inevitably need to be a "reservoir" to accommodate this newly generated and circulating wealth.

然而，鉴于我认为 ETH 的潜力目前被低估了——如果/当 BTC、ETH 和 SOL 的相对价值在未来几周内上涨时，将不可避免地需要一个“水库”来容纳这些新产生和流通的财富。

I Believe Base is Likely to Win This Position

我相信基地很可能赢得这个职位

The "faucet" interconnectivity on Base has greatly improved this year but has not received enough attention.

Base上的“水龙头”互联互通今年有了很大的提升，但还没有得到足够的重视。

Base has significant strategic value to COIN and has a real balance sheet to provide support.

Base对COIN具有重要的战略价值，并有真实的资产负债表提供支持。

Base has undergone multiple tests this year and has performed quite well.

Base今年经历了多次测试，表现相当不错。

I have adjusted my layout accordingly and will discuss my logic and the risks and mitigations involved in redirecting on-chain traffic to Base, which I believe is the most vibrant "playground," in the upcoming tweets.

我已经相应地调整了我的布局，并将在接下来的推文中讨论我的逻辑以及将链上流量重定向到 Base 所涉及的风险和缓解措施，我认为这是最有活力的“游乐场”。

Memecoins and Their Typically Successful Environments

Memecoin 及其典型的成功环境

The key is that low-market-cap memecoins often provide unrelated returns, and on-chain activity typically heats up before and after significant uncertainties.

关键是低市值的模因币通常会提供不相关的回报，并且链上活动通常会在重大不确定性之前和之后升温。

The Resilience of MEME Coins and Their Role in Portfolio Construction

MEME 币的弹性及其在投资组合构建中的作用

Reflecting on the Strength of Major Assets and Their Driving Role in On-Chain Activity

反思主要资产实力及其对链上活动的驱动作用

Based on the above views, I believe that on-chain activity will show very strong performance in the coming weeks.

基于上述观点，我相信未来几周链上活动将表现出非常强劲的表现。

The performance of major assets supports this trend—buying pressure is primarily driven by spot trading, and the open interest (OI) of ETH and BTC has mostly reset to pre-election levels, with the rise in financing rates mainly stemming from a lack of new short positions (and the levels that broke through in recent days—the amount of short liquidations has reached $1 billion, the highest this year), rather than excessive leverage usage.

主要资产的表现支撑了这一趋势——买盘压力主要由现货交易推动，ETH和BTC的持仓量(OI)大多恢复至大选前水平，融资利率上升主要源于缺乏融资。新的空头头寸（以及最近几天突破的水平——空头清算金额已达到 10 亿美元，为今年最高），而不是过度使用杠杆。

Therefore, based on the view that there is support within the existing price range, I believe on-chain activity will become a gathering place for OTC funds, new funds, and recycled funds. The funds created in the past week contrast with those from 3-4 weeks before the election. The latter witnessed a significant rise in financing and open interest, but aside from BTC, other assets struggled to attract what I call "mercenary funds."

因此，基于现有价格区间内有支撑的观点，我相信链上活动将成为场外资金、新增资金、循环资金的聚集地。过去一周创建的资金与选举前 3-4 周的资金形成鲜明对比。后者的融资和未平仓合约大幅增加，但除了比特币之外，其他资产很难吸引我所说的“雇佣资金”。

The capital flow in the past week has not only appeared broadly across assets outside of BTC (all selected assets have generally risen globally), but even includes DOGE—this is a very important indicator reflecting the characteristics of these "buyers": willing to use leverage, willing to speculate, and trading 24/7. These buyers are not restricted by U.S. trading hours, similar to BTC's rise in October.

过去一周的资金流向不仅广泛出现在BTC以外的资产上（所有选定的资产在全球范围内普遍上涨），甚至还包括DOGE——这是一个非常重要的指标，反映了这些“买家”的特征：愿意使用杠杆、愿意投机、24/7 交易。这些买家不受美国交易时间的限制，类似于 10 月份 BTC 的上涨。

In this price environment, we are still less than a week in—market misalignment is significant: capital needs time to assess whether this funding is irrational or substantive. During this period, projects that can significantly fluctuate on the margin should produce the most notable re-rating effects.

在这样的价格环境下，我们还不到一周的时间——市场错位很严重：资本需要时间来评估这笔融资是非理性的还是实质性的。在此期间，边际波动较大的项目应该会产生最显着的重估效应。

Base is Already "Winning"—Even Without Issuing Tokens

即使没有发行代币，Base 也已经“获胜”

Base may be one of the most misunderstood ecosystems currently; due to its unique construction, Base lacks typical crypto-native investors/KOLs to manage and disseminate information. However, from various indicators, Base is "winning." The attention Base attracts relative to its growth in users/wallets/TVL may be the most disproportionate among all current projects.

Base可能是目前最容易被误解的生态系统之一；由于其独特的结构，Base 缺乏典型的加密原生投资者/KOL 来管理和传播信息。不过，从各项指标来看，Base都是“胜出”。 Base 吸引的注意力相对于其用户/钱包/TVL 的增长可能是所有当前项目中最不成比例的。

Please see the following chart, which captures the attention of elfa ai towards Base. In terms of collective mentions, there were about

请看下面的图表，它捕捉到了elfa ai对Base的关注。就集体提及而言，大约有