基礎：數位資產生態系統的未來

自從川普獲勝以來，COIN和BTC都有明顯上漲，但筆者更傾向ETH，並看好Base L2生態的發展。

After Trump's victory on November 5, COIN and BTC led the way, rising 70% and 16% respectively. I personally still lean towards ETH, and based on my October writing about MEME coins, I believe several advantageous factors are converging for the Base L2 ecosystem:

11 月 5 日川普獲勝後，COIN 和 BTC 領漲，分別上漲 70% 和 16%。我個人仍然傾向於 ETH，根據我 10 月關於 MEME 幣的文章，我相信 Base L2 生態系統正在匯集幾個有利因素：

"Winning" the competition with other L2s and even the ETH mainnet, becoming the preferred ecosystem to accommodate MEME, consumer dApps, and attract attention.

「贏得」與其他L2甚至ETH主網的競爭，成為容納MEME、消費者dApp並吸引關注的首選生態系統。

Competing alongside SOL's "fully functional" integrated casino model as a top EVM-compatible ecosystem.

作為頂級 EVM 相容生態系統，與 SOL 的「功能齊全」整合式賭場模型競爭。

My core view is simple: ETH remains the key center of the digital asset ecosystem, and all derivative projects to date rely on two core principles to drive network effects:

我的核心觀點很簡單：ETH仍然是數位資產生態系統的關鍵中心，迄今為止所有衍生項目都依賴兩個核心原則來驅動網路效應：

a. The "underlying" coin must perform strongly relative to its competitors;

一個。 「基礎」代幣必須相對於其競爭對手錶現強勁；

b. The "underlying" coin must possess "scarcity."

b. 「基礎」貨幣必須具有「稀缺性」。

Therefore, in this attention-grabbing competition, most of the time, you are essentially choosing a coin (even if this is just a simplified way) to reflect its advantages. In the coming weeks (this trend has already begun), the CT community will discuss why a certain coin may prevail (e.g., SOL's competitors or MEME coins) or why an application supporting a certain coin may succeed (such as utility tokens, DeFi governance, etc.).

因此，在這種引人注目的競爭中，大多數時候，你本質上是在選擇一種幣（即使這只是一種簡化的方式）來體現它的優勢。在未來幾週內（這一趨勢已經開始），CT社群將討論為什麼某種貨幣可能會盛行（例如SOL的競爭對手或MEME幣）或為什麼支援某種幣的應用程式可能會成功（例如實用代幣、DeFi治理） ， ETC。

What I want to propose is that starting today, a more risk-adjusted choice is to bet on an ecosystem without a coin. In my view, the organization of Base creates the strongest potential for its continued adoption, while the double-edged sword is that it may rely on ETH's resurgence.

我想建議的是，從今天開始，一個更具風險調整的選擇是押注於一個沒有代幣的生態系統。在我看來，Base 的組織為其持續採用創造了最強的潛力，而雙刃劍是它可能依賴 ETH 的復甦。

However, given that I believe ETH's potential is currently underestimated—if/when the relative values of BTC, ETH, and SOL increase in the coming weeks, there will inevitably need to be a "reservoir" to accommodate this newly generated and circulating wealth.

然而，鑑於我認為ETH 的潛力目前被低估了——如果/當BTC、ETH 和SOL 的相對價值在未來幾週內上漲時，將不可避免地需要一個「水庫」來容納這些新產生和流通的財富。

I Believe Base is Likely to Win This Position

我相信基地很可能贏得這個職位

The "faucet" interconnectivity on Base has greatly improved this year but has not received enough attention.

Base上的「水龍頭」互聯互通今年有了很大的提升，但還沒有得到足夠的重視。

Base has significant strategic value to COIN and has a real balance sheet to provide support.

Base對COIN具有重要的策略價值，並有真實的資產負債表提供支援。

Base has undergone multiple tests this year and has performed quite well.

Base今年經歷了多次測試，表現相當不錯。

I have adjusted my layout accordingly and will discuss my logic and the risks and mitigations involved in redirecting on-chain traffic to Base, which I believe is the most vibrant "playground," in the upcoming tweets.

我已經相應地調整了我的佈局，並將在接下來的推文中討論我的邏輯以及將鏈上流量重定向到Base 所涉及的風險和緩解措施，我認為這是最有活力的“遊樂場」。

Memecoins and Their Typically Successful Environments

Memecoin 及其典型的成功環境

The key is that low-market-cap memecoins often provide unrelated returns, and on-chain activity typically heats up before and after significant uncertainties.

關鍵是低市值的模因幣通常會提供不相關的回報，並且鏈上活動通常會在重大不確定性之前和之後升溫。

The Resilience of MEME Coins and Their Role in Portfolio Construction

MEME 幣的彈性及其在投資組合建構中的作用

Reflecting on the Strength of Major Assets and Their Driving Role in On-Chain Activity

反思主要資產實力及其對鏈上活動的驅動作用

Based on the above views, I believe that on-chain activity will show very strong performance in the coming weeks.

基於上述觀點，我相信未來幾週鏈上活動將表現出非常強勁的表現。

The performance of major assets supports this trend—buying pressure is primarily driven by spot trading, and the open interest (OI) of ETH and BTC has mostly reset to pre-election levels, with the rise in financing rates mainly stemming from a lack of new short positions (and the levels that broke through in recent days—the amount of short liquidations has reached $1 billion, the highest this year), rather than excessive leverage usage.

主要資產的表現支撐了這一趨勢——買盤壓力主要由現貨交易推動，ETH和BTC的持倉量(OI)大多恢復至大選前水平，融資利率上升主要源於缺乏融資。以及最近幾天突破的水平——空頭清算金額已達到10 億美元，為今年最高），而不是過度使用槓桿。

Therefore, based on the view that there is support within the existing price range, I believe on-chain activity will become a gathering place for OTC funds, new funds, and recycled funds. The funds created in the past week contrast with those from 3-4 weeks before the election. The latter witnessed a significant rise in financing and open interest, but aside from BTC, other assets struggled to attract what I call "mercenary funds."

因此，基於現有價格區間內有支撐的觀點，我相信鏈上活動將成為場外資金、新增資金、循環資金的聚集地。過去一周創建的資金與選舉前 3-4 週的資金形成鮮明對比。後者的融資和未平倉合約大幅增加，但除了比特幣之外，其他資產很難吸引我所說的「僱傭資金」。

The capital flow in the past week has not only appeared broadly across assets outside of BTC (all selected assets have generally risen globally), but even includes DOGE—this is a very important indicator reflecting the characteristics of these "buyers": willing to use leverage, willing to speculate, and trading 24/7. These buyers are not restricted by U.S. trading hours, similar to BTC's rise in October.

過去一周的資金流向不僅廣泛出現在BTC以外的資產上（所有選定的資產在全球範圍內普遍上漲），甚至還包括DOGE——這是一個非常重要的指標，反映了這些「買家」的特徵：願意使用槓桿、願意投機、24/7 交易。這些買家不受美國交易時間的限制，類似於 10 月 BTC 的上漲。

In this price environment, we are still less than a week in—market misalignment is significant: capital needs time to assess whether this funding is irrational or substantive. During this period, projects that can significantly fluctuate on the margin should produce the most notable re-rating effects.

在這樣的價格環境下，我們還不到一週的時間──市場錯置很嚴重：資本需要時間來評估這筆融資是非理性的還是實質的。在此期間，邊際波動較大的項目應該會產生最顯著的重估效應。

Base is Already "Winning"—Even Without Issuing Tokens

即使沒有發行代幣，Base 已經“獲勝”

Base may be one of the most misunderstood ecosystems currently; due to its unique construction, Base lacks typical crypto-native investors/KOLs to manage and disseminate information. However, from various indicators, Base is "winning." The attention Base attracts relative to its growth in users/wallets/TVL may be the most disproportionate among all current projects.

Base可能是目前最容易被誤解的生態系之一；由於其獨特的結構，Base 缺乏典型的加密原生投資者/KOL 來管理和傳播訊息。不過，從各項指標來看，Base都是「勝出」。 Base 吸引的注意力相對於其用戶/錢包/TVL 的成長可能是所有當前專案中最不成比例的。

Please see the following chart, which captures the attention of elfa ai towards Base. In terms of collective mentions, there were about

請看下面的圖表，它捕捉到了elfa ai對Base的關注。就集體提及而言，大約有