BITMEX联合创始人Arthur Hayes预测加密牛市通过不断升级的关税战争催化

投入：Bitmex和CIO家族办公室Maelstrom的联合创始人Arthur Hayes发表了一个引人注目的宏观论文：在美国贸易主导地位的重新确定的驱动下，升级关税战争

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX and CIO of family office Maelstrom, has presented a striking macro thesis: escalating tariff warfare, driven by a reassertion of US trade dominance under Donald Trump, will serve as a catalyst for massive liquidity injections and consequently ignite a prolonged crypto bull market.

加密货币交易所Bitmex前首席执行官Arthur Hayes和家族办公室Maelstrom的CIO介绍了一个引人注目的宏观论文：在唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）领导下的美国贸易主导地位的推动下，将作为大量流动性注射的催化剂，并点燃了一个延长的密码集市。

In an interview with crypto channel Coin Bureau, Hayes offered his most detailed view yet on how tariffs, fiscal dominance, and central bank capitulation will shape the monetary regime in which digital assets thrive.

在接受加密渠道Coin局的采访时，海斯提供了他对关税，财政统治和中央银行投降将如何影响数字资产蓬勃发展的货币制度的最详细观点。

Crypto Bull Run Coming On Tariff Shock

加密公牛奔跑遇到关税冲击

“The global monetary order doesn’t work for China and the United States in its current situation,” said Hayes, arguing that the Trump administration’s aggressive reimplementation of trade tariffs—particularly against China—marks the acceleration of a process already in motion since the 2008 financial crisis.

海斯说：“全球货币秩序在目前的情况下对中国和美国无效。”特朗普政府对贸易关税的积极重新实现（尤其是针对中国）标志着自2008年金融危机以来已经在运动中正在进行的过程的加速。

“Trump didn’t cause it… this was going to happen anyway—it just might’ve taken a little longer.”

“特朗普没有造成这种情况……无论如何这将发生 - 这可能花了更长的时间。”

The issue, he emphasized, isn’t the tariffs themselves, but their downstream consequences. “These tariffs are great,” said Hayes bluntly. “They’re accelerating a change that was going to happen anyways… and we know philosophically and ideologically that all major politicians in the US, China, EU, and Japan do not want to do austerity.” The implication, in his view, is clear: large-scale fiscal spending and monetary accommodation are the only politically viable responses to the economic pain tariffs will cause.

他强调，这个问题不是关税本身，而是其下游后果。 “这些关税很棒，”海斯直言不讳地说。 “他们正在加快无论如何都将发生的变化……从哲学和意识形态上我们知道，美国，中国，欧盟和日本的所有主要政客都不想做紧缩。”在他看来，这一点很明确：大规模的财政支出和货币住宿是对经济疼痛关税的唯一可行的政治回应。

That pain will not be distributed evenly. China, which has long relied on export-driven growth to raise 400 million citizens out of poverty, faces an existential dilemma if Trump’s tariff regime is accepted by Xi Jinping.

这种疼痛不会均匀分散。长期以来，中国一直依靠出口驱动的增长来筹集4亿公民摆脱贫困，如果特朗普的关税政权被习近平施加接受，则面临存在的困境。

“Therefore, ultimately, I think there is no deal between the US and China,” said Hayes, predicting that China will respond by allowing the yuan to depreciate sharply—potentially as far as 9 or 10 against the US dollar.

海斯说：“因此，最终，我认为美国和中国之间没有任何交易。”他预测，中国将通过允许人民币急剧折旧的回应，直到违反了美元，这一目标是9或10。

This macro backdrop—deglobalization, protectionism, and the breakdown of prior trade arrangements—is, in Hayes’ analysis, highly inflationary. And central banks, already under pressure to maintain cheap funding for governments, will be forced to respond.

在海耶斯的分析中，这种宏观背景（销售主义，保护主义和先前贸易安排的细分）高度通货膨胀。中央银行已经承受着为政府维持廉价资金的压力，将被迫做出回应。

“We know that money will be printed. We know that the Fed is on board with providing the accommodation needed to make this transition as palatable as possible,” said Hayes, referencing Jerome Powell’s recent dovish rhetoric. “That’s what basically cemented my view of being very bullish in the medium term on crypto.”

海斯说：“我们知道将印刷资金。我们知道，美联储正在提供使这种过渡尽可能可口所需的住宿。” “这基本上巩固了我在加密货币中中期非常看涨的看法。”

At the March 2025 FOMC press conference, Powell signaled an end to quantitative tightening (QT) and floated the possibility of renewed balance sheet expansion—even with inflation still above the 2% target.

在2025年3月的FOMC新闻发布会上，鲍威尔（Powell）表示终结了定量拧紧（QT），并浮动了重新平衡表扩展的可能性，即使通货膨胀仍然高于2％的目标。

“He said the inflationary impact of tariffs was transitory,” noted Hayes, arguing that this signals a continuation of the Fed’s easing bias even if inflation shows up in CPI.

海斯指出：“他说关税的通货膨胀影响是短暂的。

This, in Hayes' terminology, amounts to "fiscal dominance"—a term describing when central banks subordinate monetary policy to government funding needs.

在海斯的术语中，这相当于“财政优势”，一个术语描述了中央银行何时将货币政策纳入政府资助需求。

The structure of global bond markets is also a key concern. Hayes highlighted the fragility of the US Treasury market, which has become increasingly reliant on leveraged hedge funds conducting basis trades due to the retreat of traditional sovereign buyers.

全球债券市场的结构也是一个关键问题。海斯强调了美国财政市场的脆弱性，由于传统主权买家的撤退，该市场越来越依赖于进行基础交易的杠杆对冲基金。

“Without these relative value hedge funds, there wouldn’t be a 4% Treasury yield—it’d be much higher,” said Hayes, who predicted that the Fed will be forced into stealth QE, stepping in as the backstop for this fragile ecosystem.

海斯说：“如果没有这些相对价值的对冲基金，就不会有4％的国库收益率，这将要高得多。”

As monetary policy reverts to accommodation globally, Hayes believes Bitcoin and crypto will begin decoupling from risk assets like the NASDAQ.

随着货币政策在全球范围内恢复到住宿，海耶斯认为，比特币和加密货币将开始与纳斯达克这样的风险资产分离。

“Bitcoin is going to start to look through all this tariff noise and focus on the certainty. The certainty is: money printing,” he said.

他说：“比特币将开始浏览所有关税噪音，并专注于确定性。确定性是：金钱打印。”

Raveling the fabric of the post-Cold War financial consensus, tariffs in Hayes’s view are not aberrations but markers of deeper macroeconomic inevitabilities.

在海耶斯观点的关税不是畸变，而是更深层的宏观经济不可避免的标志，违反了冷战后财务共识的结构。

“The politicians are going to print the money. That’s the only tool they have left,” said Hayes. “And when they do, crypto will be the beneficiary.”

海斯说：“政客将打印这笔钱。这是他们剩下的唯一工具。” “当他们这样做时，加密货币将成为受益人。”