BITMEX聯合創始人Arthur Hayes預測加密牛市通過不斷升級的關稅戰爭催化

投入：Bitmex和CIO家族辦公室Maelstrom的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes發表了一個引人注目的宏觀論文：在美國貿易主導地位的重新確定的驅動下，升級關稅戰爭

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX and CIO of family office Maelstrom, has presented a striking macro thesis: escalating tariff warfare, driven by a reassertion of US trade dominance under Donald Trump, will serve as a catalyst for massive liquidity injections and consequently ignite a prolonged crypto bull market.

加密貨幣交易所Bitmex前首席執行官Arthur Hayes和家族辦公室Maelstrom的CIO介紹了一個引人注目的宏觀論文：在唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）領導下的美國貿易主導地位的推動下，將作為大量流動性注射的催化劑，並點燃了一個延長的密碼集市。

In an interview with crypto channel Coin Bureau, Hayes offered his most detailed view yet on how tariffs, fiscal dominance, and central bank capitulation will shape the monetary regime in which digital assets thrive.

在接受加密渠道Coin局的採訪時，海斯提供了他對關稅，財政統治和中央銀行投降將如何影響數字資產蓬勃發展的貨幣制度的最詳細觀點。

Crypto Bull Run Coming On Tariff Shock

加密公牛奔跑遇到關稅衝擊

“The global monetary order doesn’t work for China and the United States in its current situation,” said Hayes, arguing that the Trump administration’s aggressive reimplementation of trade tariffs—particularly against China—marks the acceleration of a process already in motion since the 2008 financial crisis.

海斯說：“全球貨幣秩序在目前的情況下對中國和美國無效。”特朗普政府對貿易關稅的積極重新實現（尤其是針對中國）標誌著自2008年金融危機以來已經在運動中正在進行的過程的加速。

“Trump didn’t cause it… this was going to happen anyway—it just might’ve taken a little longer.”

“特朗普沒有造成這種情況……無論如何這將發生 - 這可能花了更長的時間。”

The issue, he emphasized, isn’t the tariffs themselves, but their downstream consequences. “These tariffs are great,” said Hayes bluntly. “They’re accelerating a change that was going to happen anyways… and we know philosophically and ideologically that all major politicians in the US, China, EU, and Japan do not want to do austerity.” The implication, in his view, is clear: large-scale fiscal spending and monetary accommodation are the only politically viable responses to the economic pain tariffs will cause.

他強調，這個問題不是關稅本身，而是其下游後果。 “這些關稅很棒，”海斯直言不諱地說。 “他們正在加快無論如何都將發生的變化……從哲學和意識形態上我們知道，美國，中國，歐盟和日本的所有主要政客都不想做緊縮。”在他看來，這一點很明確：大規模的財政支出和貨幣住宿是對經濟疼痛關稅的唯一可行的政治回應。

That pain will not be distributed evenly. China, which has long relied on export-driven growth to raise 400 million citizens out of poverty, faces an existential dilemma if Trump’s tariff regime is accepted by Xi Jinping.

這種疼痛不會均勻分散。長期以來，中國一直依靠出口驅動的增長來籌集4億公民擺脫貧困，如果特朗普的關稅政權被習近平施加接受，則面臨存在的困境。

“Therefore, ultimately, I think there is no deal between the US and China,” said Hayes, predicting that China will respond by allowing the yuan to depreciate sharply—potentially as far as 9 or 10 against the US dollar.

海斯說：“因此，最終，我認為美國和中國之間沒有任何交易。”他預測，中國將通過允許人民幣急劇折舊的回應，直到違反了美元，這一目標是9或10。

This macro backdrop—deglobalization, protectionism, and the breakdown of prior trade arrangements—is, in Hayes’ analysis, highly inflationary. And central banks, already under pressure to maintain cheap funding for governments, will be forced to respond.

在海耶斯的分析中，這種宏觀背景（銷售主義，保護主義和先前貿易安排的細分）高度通貨膨脹。中央銀行已經承受著為政府維持廉價資金的壓力，將被迫做出回應。

“We know that money will be printed. We know that the Fed is on board with providing the accommodation needed to make this transition as palatable as possible,” said Hayes, referencing Jerome Powell’s recent dovish rhetoric. “That’s what basically cemented my view of being very bullish in the medium term on crypto.”

海斯說：“我們知道將印刷資金。我們知道，美聯儲正在提供使這種過渡盡可能可口所需的住宿。” “這基本上鞏固了我在加密貨幣中中期非常看漲的看法。”

At the March 2025 FOMC press conference, Powell signaled an end to quantitative tightening (QT) and floated the possibility of renewed balance sheet expansion—even with inflation still above the 2% target.

在2025年3月的FOMC新聞發布會上，鮑威爾（Powell）表示終結了定量擰緊（QT），並浮動了重新平衡表擴展的可能性，即使通貨膨脹仍然高於2％的目標。

“He said the inflationary impact of tariffs was transitory,” noted Hayes, arguing that this signals a continuation of the Fed’s easing bias even if inflation shows up in CPI.

海斯指出：“他說關稅的通貨膨脹影響是短暫的。

This, in Hayes' terminology, amounts to "fiscal dominance"—a term describing when central banks subordinate monetary policy to government funding needs.

在海斯的術語中，這相當於“財政優勢”，一個術語描述了中央銀行何時將貨幣政策納入政府資助需求。

The structure of global bond markets is also a key concern. Hayes highlighted the fragility of the US Treasury market, which has become increasingly reliant on leveraged hedge funds conducting basis trades due to the retreat of traditional sovereign buyers.

全球債券市場的結構也是一個關鍵問題。海斯強調了美國財政市場的脆弱性，由於傳統主權買家的撤退，該市場越來越依賴於進行基礎交易的槓桿對沖基金。

“Without these relative value hedge funds, there wouldn’t be a 4% Treasury yield—it’d be much higher,” said Hayes, who predicted that the Fed will be forced into stealth QE, stepping in as the backstop for this fragile ecosystem.

海斯說：“如果沒有這些相對價值的對沖基金，就不會有4％的國庫收益率，這將要高得多。”

As monetary policy reverts to accommodation globally, Hayes believes Bitcoin and crypto will begin decoupling from risk assets like the NASDAQ.

隨著貨幣政策在全球範圍內恢復到住宿，海耶斯認為，比特幣和加密貨幣將開始與納斯達克這樣的風險資產分離。

“Bitcoin is going to start to look through all this tariff noise and focus on the certainty. The certainty is: money printing,” he said.

他說：“比特幣將開始瀏覽所有關稅噪音，並專注於確定性。確定性是：金錢打印。”

Raveling the fabric of the post-Cold War financial consensus, tariffs in Hayes’s view are not aberrations but markers of deeper macroeconomic inevitabilities.

在海耶斯觀點的關稅不是畸變，而是更深層的宏觀經濟不可避免的標誌，違反了冷戰後財務共識的結構。

“The politicians are going to print the money. That’s the only tool they have left,” said Hayes. “And when they do, crypto will be the beneficiary.”

海斯說：“政客將打印這筆錢。這是他們剩下的唯一工具。” “當他們這樣做時，加密貨幣將成為受益人。”