去年11月總統大選後，比特幣（BTC）價格飆升了54％

去年11月總統大選之後，比特幣（BTC 0.06％）的價格在短短六週內飆升了54％。

Following the presidential election last November, Bitcoin's (BTC 0.06%) price soared 54% in just six weeks. After trading in a relatively narrow range through the first couple of months of 2025, the top crypto has trended downward. As of this writing, it's 20% off its peak price from January.

去年11月總統大選之後，比特幣（BTC 0.06％）的價格在短短六週內飆升了54％。在2025年的前幾個月，交易範圍相對狹窄後，頂級加密貨幣趨勢下降。截至撰寫本文時，從一月份起，其高峰價格降低了20％。

Bitcoin's price is currently under $90,000. Does this make the digital asset a smart buying opportunity for your portfolio? Let's take a closer look at the bear and bull arguments for Bitcoin.

比特幣的價格目前低於90,000美元。這是否使數字資產成為您的投資組合的明智購買機會？讓我們仔細看看熊和比特幣的公牛論點。

Bitcoin has significant upside

比特幣具有很大的上升空間

Anyone who follows Bitcoin knows that its price goes through boom-and-bust cycles. Throughout its history, it hasn't failed to bounce back from lows to reach new highs. Over the short term, there will be volatility, but the price has increased in the long run.

任何跟隨比特幣的人都知道，其價格會經歷繁榮和障礙的周期。在整個歷史上，它並沒有從低點反彈以達到新的高點。在短期內，會有波動性，但從長遠來看，價格上漲。

We're almost 12 months past the most recent halving (April 2024). In the 12 to 18 months following previous halvings, Bitcoin has experienced strong bull markets. If history is any indication, the rest of this year could prove to be positive for the price.

我們最近的半局（2024年4月）將近12個月。在先前的中度半段的12到18個月中，比特幣經歷了強烈的牛市。如果有任何歷史蹟象，那麼今年剩餘的時間可能對價格呈陽性。

Favorable regulatory actions, like the approval of spot ETFs and the White House's accommodative stance, have helped to reduce the stigma that has surrounded Bitcoin. Viewed as a less risky asset, this can bring in huge amounts of fresh buying power, whether from institutional investors, corporations, or even nation-states.

有利的監管行動，例如獲得現場ETF和白宮的謙遜立場的批准，有助於減少圍繞比特幣的污名。被視為風險較小的資產，無論是從機構投資者，公司還是民族國家，這都可以帶來大量的新鮮購買力。

Given its fixed supply, only a max of 21 million Bitcoin units will ever be in circulation. Owning a hard asset like this is an extremely compelling proposition for investors. It operates in direct contrast to how the fiat money system works. The M2 money supply of the world's top four central banks has more than doubled in 15 years, thanks to expanding government debt. There is no end in sight to this trend.

鑑於其固定供應，只有2100萬個比特幣單元的流通。對於投資者來說，擁有這樣的硬資產是一個非常引人注目的主張。它與菲亞特貨幣系統的工作原理形成鮮明對比。由於政府債務的擴大，全球前四家中央銀行的M2貨幣供應在15年內增加了一倍以上。這種趨勢沒有任何目的。

Even after its monumental rise in the past 15 years, Bitcoin only represents less than half a percent of all the wealth in the world. Given its trajectory and recent developments working to its benefit, it's easy to believe that percentage will keep rising over time. This means Bitcoin still has tremendous upside from current levels.

即使在過去15年中，比特幣在其巨大的增長之後，比特幣僅佔世界所有財富的一半。鑑於其軌跡和最新發展促進其利益，因此很容易相信，隨著時間的流逝，百分比會不斷上升。這意味著比特幣的當前水平仍然具有巨大的上升空間。

Bitcoin still faces well-known risks

比特幣仍然面臨著眾所周知的風險

One of Bitcoin's best characteristics is that it's decentralized. In other words, no single entity has full control over it. People appreciate this because it means Bitcoin's software, and its rules, can't easily be changed to the benefit of a select few.

比特幣的最佳特徵之一是它是分散的。換句話說，沒有一個實體可以完全控制它。人們喜歡這一點，因為這意味著比特幣的軟件及其規則，無法輕易更改為少數人的好處。

However, this setup could change for the worse. Large asset managers that sponsor Bitcoin spot ETFs collectively hold about $100 billion of the crypto. What's more, with the U.S. now planning to create a reserve, it's probably only a matter of time until other countries start doing the same. This introduces massive buyers to the market, which could result in Bitcoin ownership becoming more centralized over time.

但是，這種設置可能會更糟。贊助比特幣現貨ETF的大型資產經理共同擁有約1000億美元的加密貨幣。更重要的是，隨著美國現在計劃創建儲備金，可能只是時間問題，直到其他國家開始做同樣的事情。這將大量的買家推向市場，這可能會導致比特幣所有權隨著時間的流逝而變得越來越集中。

Bitcoin's security is held up by public key cryptography. Unless handled carelessly by the owner, it's virtually impossible to crack this protocol. But there are fears about an up-and-coming technology that could undermine Bitcoin's security.

比特幣的安全性由公共密鑰密碼學提高。除非所有者不小心處理，否則幾乎不可能破解此協議。但是，人們擔心有可能破壞比特幣安全性的技術。

Quantum computing, no matter how many years away it is from going mainstream, can tackle complex problems much faster than the computers we have today. Just by raw force, it's possible that this could crack Bitcoin's cryptography, thereby exposing everyone's private keys and rendering the entire network worthless.

量子計算，無論距離主流多少年，都可以比今天的計算機快得多解決複雜問題。僅僅通過原始力量，這可能會破解比特幣的加密技術，從而揭露每個人的私鑰並使整個網絡毫無價值。

And lastly, despite the regulatory backdrop becoming more favorable, it's possible the next presidential administration will roll back the new pro-crypto policies. Changing rules and laws are always something to keep in mind.

最後，儘管監管背景變得更加有利，但下一任總統管理局可能會推遲新的親克萊托普政策。改變規則和法律總是要牢記的。

Investors should always try to understand both sides of the argument, especially with a polarizing financial asset such as Bitcoin. I understand the risks present, but I still view Bitcoin as a solid long-term investment opportunity below $90,000 per unit. The bull case is more compelling.

投資者應始終試圖理解論點的雙方，尤其是使用比特幣等兩極分化的金融資產。我了解存在的風險，但我仍然認為比特幣是每單位低於90,000美元的長期投資機會。公牛案更具吸引力。