去年11月总统大选后，比特币（BTC）价格飙升了54％

去年11月总统大选之后，比特币（BTC 0.06％）的价格在短短六周内飙升了54％。

Following the presidential election last November, Bitcoin's (BTC 0.06%) price soared 54% in just six weeks. After trading in a relatively narrow range through the first couple of months of 2025, the top crypto has trended downward. As of this writing, it's 20% off its peak price from January.

去年11月总统大选之后，比特币（BTC 0.06％）的价格在短短六周内飙升了54％。在2025年的前几个月，交易范围相对狭窄后，顶级加密货币趋势下降。截至撰写本文时，从一月份起，其高峰价格降低了20％。

Bitcoin's price is currently under $90,000. Does this make the digital asset a smart buying opportunity for your portfolio? Let's take a closer look at the bear and bull arguments for Bitcoin.

比特币的价格目前低于90,000美元。这是否使数字资产成为您的投资组合的明智购买机会？让我们仔细看看熊和比特币的公牛论点。

Bitcoin has significant upside

比特币具有很大的上升空间

Anyone who follows Bitcoin knows that its price goes through boom-and-bust cycles. Throughout its history, it hasn't failed to bounce back from lows to reach new highs. Over the short term, there will be volatility, but the price has increased in the long run.

任何跟随比特币的人都知道，其价格会经历繁荣和障碍的周期。在整个历史上，它并没有从低点反弹以达到新的高点。在短期内，会有波动性，但从长远来看，价格上涨。

We're almost 12 months past the most recent halving (April 2024). In the 12 to 18 months following previous halvings, Bitcoin has experienced strong bull markets. If history is any indication, the rest of this year could prove to be positive for the price.

我们最近的半局（2024年4月）将近12个月。在先前的中度半段的12到18个月中，比特币经历了强烈的牛市。如果有任何历史迹象，那么今年剩余的时间可能对价格呈阳性。

Favorable regulatory actions, like the approval of spot ETFs and the White House's accommodative stance, have helped to reduce the stigma that has surrounded Bitcoin. Viewed as a less risky asset, this can bring in huge amounts of fresh buying power, whether from institutional investors, corporations, or even nation-states.

有利的监管行动，例如获得现场ETF和白宫的谦逊立场的批准，有助于减少围绕比特币的污名。被视为风险较小的资产，无论是从机构投资者，公司还是民族国家，这都可以带来大量的新鲜购买力。

Given its fixed supply, only a max of 21 million Bitcoin units will ever be in circulation. Owning a hard asset like this is an extremely compelling proposition for investors. It operates in direct contrast to how the fiat money system works. The M2 money supply of the world's top four central banks has more than doubled in 15 years, thanks to expanding government debt. There is no end in sight to this trend.

鉴于其固定供应，只有2100万个比特币单元的流通。对于投资者来说，拥有这样的硬资产是一个非常引人注目的主张。它与菲亚特货币系统的工作原理形成鲜明对比。由于政府债务的扩大，全球前四家中央银行的M2货币供应在15年内增加了一倍以上。这种趋势没有任何目的。

Even after its monumental rise in the past 15 years, Bitcoin only represents less than half a percent of all the wealth in the world. Given its trajectory and recent developments working to its benefit, it's easy to believe that percentage will keep rising over time. This means Bitcoin still has tremendous upside from current levels.

即使在过去15年中，比特币在其巨大的增长之后，比特币仅占世界所有财富的一半。鉴于其轨迹和最新发展促进其利益，因此很容易相信，随着时间的流逝，百分比会不断上升。这意味着比特币的当前水平仍然具有巨大的上升空间。

Bitcoin still faces well-known risks

比特币仍然面临着众所周知的风险

One of Bitcoin's best characteristics is that it's decentralized. In other words, no single entity has full control over it. People appreciate this because it means Bitcoin's software, and its rules, can't easily be changed to the benefit of a select few.

比特币的最佳特征之一是它是分散的。换句话说，没有一个实体可以完全控制它。人们喜欢这一点，因为这意味着比特币的软件及其规则，无法轻易更改为少数人的好处。

However, this setup could change for the worse. Large asset managers that sponsor Bitcoin spot ETFs collectively hold about $100 billion of the crypto. What's more, with the U.S. now planning to create a reserve, it's probably only a matter of time until other countries start doing the same. This introduces massive buyers to the market, which could result in Bitcoin ownership becoming more centralized over time.

但是，这种设置可能会更糟。赞助比特币现货ETF的大型资产经理共同拥有约1000亿美元的加密货币。更重要的是，随着美国现在计划创建储备金，可能只是时间问题，直到其他国家开始做同样的事情。这将大量的买家推向市场，这可能会导致比特币所有权随着时间的流逝而变得越来越集中。

Bitcoin's security is held up by public key cryptography. Unless handled carelessly by the owner, it's virtually impossible to crack this protocol. But there are fears about an up-and-coming technology that could undermine Bitcoin's security.

比特币的安全性由公共密钥密码学提高。除非所有者不小心处理，否则几乎不可能破解此协议。但是，人们担心有可能破坏比特币安全性的技术。

Quantum computing, no matter how many years away it is from going mainstream, can tackle complex problems much faster than the computers we have today. Just by raw force, it's possible that this could crack Bitcoin's cryptography, thereby exposing everyone's private keys and rendering the entire network worthless.

量子计算，无论距离主流多少年，都可以比今天的计算机快得多解决复杂问题。仅仅通过原始力量，这可能会破解比特币的加密技术，从而揭露每个人的私钥并使整个网络毫无价值。

And lastly, despite the regulatory backdrop becoming more favorable, it's possible the next presidential administration will roll back the new pro-crypto policies. Changing rules and laws are always something to keep in mind.

最后，尽管监管背景变得更加有利，但下一任总统管理局可能会推迟新的亲克莱托普政策。改变规则和法律总是要牢记的。

Investors should always try to understand both sides of the argument, especially with a polarizing financial asset such as Bitcoin. I understand the risks present, but I still view Bitcoin as a solid long-term investment opportunity below $90,000 per unit. The bull case is more compelling.

投资者应始终试图理解论点的双方，尤其是使用比特币等两极分化的金融资产。我了解存在的风险，但我仍然认为比特币是每单位低于90,000美元的长期投资机会。公牛案更具吸引力。