丰富的事件

我们已经看到了大量的事件，例如美国急剧削减预算，股票和加密货币市场波动，正在进行的贸易关税交流以及更悲观的通货膨胀数据报告。

We have seen an abundance of events, such as drastic US budget cuts, stock and crypto market volatility, ongoing trade tariff exchanges, and rather pessimistic inflation data reports. Whether this is what most people expected over the long haul from the arrival of Donald Trump, especially seeing the optimism in the markets after the first few days of his victory – I don’t think so. But whether it can be unequivocally called a failure, or whether it’s a risky but inevitable cost on the road to something bigger – maybe. Let’s break down the key moments we’ve seen lately.

我们已经看到了大量的事件，例如美国急剧削减预算，股票和加密货币市场波动，正在进行的贸易关税交流以及更悲观的通货膨胀数据报告。这是否是大多数人从唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）到来的长期以来期望的，尤其是在胜利的头几天后看到市场上的乐观情绪 - 我不这么认为。但是，是否可以明确称为失败，还是在通往更大事物的道路上是冒险但不可避免的成本。让我们分解最近见过的关键时刻。

Donald Trump’s Policies

唐纳德·特朗普的政策

As usual, I’ll start with politics, because in many ways it sets priorities and conditions for the measures we further see in the economy and other areas. Donald Trump’s policies are what is known as America First, but what does that mean? You can read more about his speech in the Senate, where he lists and comments on all the initiatives of his presidency, criticizes the previous policies of the Democrats on those very points, and offers an alternative. But in brief, he puts American interests at the center and expands the set of tools with which these interests can be defended and developed in foreign policy. He also prioritizes business interests and the enabling environment for them, as well as households and the environment that makes goods and services affordable and efficient for them.

像往常一样，我将从政治开始，因为它在许多方面都为我们在经济和其他领域进一步看到的措施设定了优先级和条件。唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的政策首先被称为美国，但这意味着什么？您可以阅读有关他在参议院的讲话的更多信息，在那里他列出了他总统任期的所有倡议的评论，批评民主党先前的政策就这些观点而言，并提供了替代方案。但简而言之，他将美国的利益放在中心，并扩展了可以在外交政策中捍卫和制定这些利益的工具集。他还优先考虑商业利益以及为他们提供的有利环境，以及使商品和服务负担得起且有效效率的家庭和环境。

But moving from the basics to the details, we can see how the Trump administration is taking steps that all businesses may not like and many households may suffer. In particular, the trade wars and tariffs he is imposing have had some good results at first, for example when it helped secure U.S. interests regarding Colombia. However, with other players, especially Canada and Europe, we’ve seen some pretty serious resistance – and it doesn’t seem like such a tempting idea anymore.

但是，从基本知识转向细节，我们可以看到特朗普政府如何采取所有企业可能不喜欢的步骤，许多家庭可能会遭受损失。特别是，他强加的贸易战和关税起初取得了一些不错的成绩，例如，它帮助确保了我们对哥伦比亚的兴趣。但是，对于其他球员，尤其是加拿大和欧洲，我们已经看到了一些非常严重的抵抗，而且似乎不再是一个诱人的想法。

For example, Ontario Premier Doug Ford spoke with CNN:

例如，安大略省总理道格·福特（Doug Ford）与CNN进行了交谈：

“Absolute chaos created by one person, Donald Trump.”

“一个人唐纳德·特朗普造成的绝对混乱。”

But he has announced a whole series of retaliatory measures that also involve critical infrastructure like the supply of electricity.

但是他宣布了一系列的报复措施，这些措施也涉及关键的基础设施，例如电力供应。

It goes beyond Mexico and Canada, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said:

它超越了墨西哥和加拿大，欧洲委员会主席Ursula von der Leyen说：

“We deeply regret this measure. Tariffs are taxes. They are bad for business and even worse for consumers.”

“我们深感遗憾这项措施。关税是税收。它们对企业不利，对消费者甚至更糟。”

Beyond condemnation and dissent, however, the European Union will raise tariffs on U.S. beef, poultry, bourbon and motorcycles, bourbon, peanut butter, and jeans.

然而，除了谴责和异议之外，欧盟还将对美国牛肉，家禽，波旁威士忌和摩托车，波旁威士忌，花生酱和牛仔裤提高关税。

For one thing, it challenges political relationships with allies, and you know, I’ll add a bit of my personal opinion here. The US-Canada relationship has been built over decades, and Trudeau’s phenomenal speech does make sense. The U.S. and Canada have been on the same side in a number of challenges, helped out when there were problems, and so on, and is it fine that just one person cancel it? Even taking into account the unfairness in trade terms that Trump is talking about – in all these decades, doesn’t Canada deserve more thoughtful measures to correct that? I’ll leave that question open.

一方面，它挑战了与盟友的政治关系，您知道，我在这里添加一些个人意见。美国加拿大的关系已经建立了数十年，特鲁多的惊人演讲确实很有意义。美国和加拿大在许多挑战方面都处于同一方面，在出现问题时提供了帮助，依此类推，只有一个人取消它吗？即使考虑到特朗普谈论的贸易术语的不公平性 - 在所有这几十年中，加拿大不应该采取更多的周到措施来纠正这一点吗？我会把这个问题打开。

However, objectively speaking, it makes you wonder, somewhat for Donald Trump, the ends justify the means and in his interview in which he was asked if America expects a recession he indicated:

但是，客观地说，这让您对唐纳德·特朗普有些疑惑，目的是有道理的。

“I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big, we’re bringing wealth back to America, that’s a big thing. There are always periods of … it takes a little time, it takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us, I mean I think it should be great.”

“我讨厌预测这样的事情。有一段时间的过渡，因为我们正在做的事情很大，我们将财富带回美国，这是一件大事。总是有……花费一些时间，需要一点时间，但是我认为这对我们来说应该很棒，我的意思是我认为这应该很棒。”

Economic Factors

经济因素

All of this has a direct impact on the economy, and here, too, things are very mixed. On the other hand, we saw that the shares of many American companies, especially infrastructure, experienced growth after the announcement, for example, that Donald Trump is resuming the development of oil, gas, and metals in the United States.

所有这些都会直接影响经济，在这里，事情也很混杂。另一方面，我们看到许多美国公司（尤其是基础设施）的股票在宣布这一消息后经历了增长，例如，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）正在恢复美国的石油，天然气和金属的发展。

On the other hand, trade wars and sudden movements add uncertainty, and markets don’t like that. We have already seen several moments when the market was red after every news about tariffs imposed by Donald Trump.

另一方面，贸易战和突然的运动增加了不确定性，市场不喜欢。在唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）征收的有关关税的每一个新闻之后，我们已经看到了片刻的市场。

But that is what it is and it’s similar to what Trump calls a transition, implying certain economic risks and costs. And he will probably continue down this path for several very important reasons.

但这就是事实，它类似于特朗普所谓的过渡，这意味着某些经济风险和成本。由于几个非常重要的原因，他可能会继续走这条路。

One is the U.S. national debt, the servicing of which could be $1.5T by the end of the year. Investors are showing less and less interest in U.S. debt because they fear the government will not be able to pay it back, so they are buying fewer government bonds. For example, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield has crossed above 1.50% for the 1st time since the Financial Crisis and this may cause Japanese markets and investors to begin bringing money home.

其中之一是美国国家债务，到年底，其服务可能为1.5吨。投资者表现出对美国债务的兴趣越来越少，因为他们担心政府将无法偿还，因此他们购买的政府债券更少。例如，自金融危机以来的第一次，日本政府债券收益率已经超过1.50％，这可能会导致日本市场和投资者开始将钱带回家。

The other is that the fight against inflation is still

另一个是与通货膨胀的斗争仍在