豐富的事件

我們已經看到了很多事件，例如美國急劇削減預算，股票和加密貨幣市場波動，正在進行的貿易關稅交流以及更悲觀的通貨膨脹數據報告。

We have seen an abundance of events, such as drastic US budget cuts, stock and crypto market volatility, ongoing trade tariff exchanges, and rather pessimistic inflation data reports. Whether this is what most people expected over the long haul from the arrival of Donald Trump, especially seeing the optimism in the markets after the first few days of his victory – I don’t think so. But whether it can be unequivocally called a failure, or whether it’s a risky but inevitable cost on the road to something bigger – maybe. Let’s break down the key moments we’ve seen lately.

我們已經看到了大量的事件，例如美國急劇削減預算，股票和加密貨幣市場波動，正在進行的貿易關稅交流以及更悲觀的通貨膨脹數據報告。這是否是大多數人從唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）到來的長期以來期望的，尤其是在勝利的頭幾天后看到市場上的樂觀情緒 - 我不這麼認為。但是，是否可以明確稱為失敗，還是在通往更大事物的道路上是冒險但不可避免的成本。讓我們分解最近見過的關鍵時刻。

Donald Trump’s Policies

唐納德·特朗普的政策

As usual, I’ll start with politics, because in many ways it sets priorities and conditions for the measures we further see in the economy and other areas. Donald Trump’s policies are what is known as America First, but what does that mean? You can read more about his speech in the Senate, where he lists and comments on all the initiatives of his presidency, criticizes the previous policies of the Democrats on those very points, and offers an alternative. But in brief, he puts American interests at the center and expands the set of tools with which these interests can be defended and developed in foreign policy. He also prioritizes business interests and the enabling environment for them, as well as households and the environment that makes goods and services affordable and efficient for them.

像往常一樣，我將從政治開始，因為它在許多方面都為我們在經濟和其他領域進一步看到的措施設定了優先級和條件。唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的政策首先被稱為美國，但這意味著什麼？您可以閱讀有關他在參議院的講話的更多信息，在那裡他列出了他總統任期的所有倡議的評論，批評民主黨先前的政策就這些觀點而言，並提供了替代方案。但簡而言之，他將美國的利益放在中心，並擴展了可以在外交政策中捍衛和製定這些利益的工具集。他還優先考慮商業利益以及為他們提供的有利環境，以及使商品和服務負擔得起且有效效率的家庭和環境。

But moving from the basics to the details, we can see how the Trump administration is taking steps that all businesses may not like and many households may suffer. In particular, the trade wars and tariffs he is imposing have had some good results at first, for example when it helped secure U.S. interests regarding Colombia. However, with other players, especially Canada and Europe, we’ve seen some pretty serious resistance – and it doesn’t seem like such a tempting idea anymore.

但是，從基本知識轉向細節，我們可以看到特朗普政府如何採取所有企業可能不喜歡的步驟，許多家庭可能會遭受損失。特別是，他強加的貿易戰和關稅起初取得了一些不錯的成績，例如，它幫助確保了我們對哥倫比亞的興趣。但是，對於其他球員，尤其是加拿大和歐洲，我們已經看到了一些非常嚴重的抵抗，而且似乎不再是一個誘人的想法。

For example, Ontario Premier Doug Ford spoke with CNN:

例如，安大略省總理道格·福特（Doug Ford）與CNN進行了交談：

“Absolute chaos created by one person, Donald Trump.”

“一個人唐納德·特朗普造成的絕對混亂。”

But he has announced a whole series of retaliatory measures that also involve critical infrastructure like the supply of electricity.

但是他宣布了一系列的報復措施，這些措施也涉及關鍵的基礎設施，例如電力供應。

It goes beyond Mexico and Canada, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said:

它超越了墨西哥和加拿大，歐洲委員會主席Ursula von der Leyen說：

“We deeply regret this measure. Tariffs are taxes. They are bad for business and even worse for consumers.”

“我們深感遺憾這項措施。關稅是稅收。它們對企業不利，對消費者甚至更糟。”

Beyond condemnation and dissent, however, the European Union will raise tariffs on U.S. beef, poultry, bourbon and motorcycles, bourbon, peanut butter, and jeans.

然而，除了譴責和異議之外，歐盟還將對美國牛肉，家禽，波旁威士忌和摩托車，波旁威士忌，花生醬和牛仔褲提高關稅。

For one thing, it challenges political relationships with allies, and you know, I’ll add a bit of my personal opinion here. The US-Canada relationship has been built over decades, and Trudeau’s phenomenal speech does make sense. The U.S. and Canada have been on the same side in a number of challenges, helped out when there were problems, and so on, and is it fine that just one person cancel it? Even taking into account the unfairness in trade terms that Trump is talking about – in all these decades, doesn’t Canada deserve more thoughtful measures to correct that? I’ll leave that question open.

一方面，它挑戰了與盟友的政治關係，您知道，我在這裡添加一些個人意見。美國加拿大的關係已經建立了數十年，特魯多的驚人演講確實很有意義。美國和加拿大在許多挑戰方面都處於同一方面，在出現問題時提供了幫助，依此類推，只有一個人取消它嗎？即使考慮到特朗普談論的貿易術語的不公平性 - 在所有這幾十年中，加拿大不應該採取更多的周到措施來糾正這一點嗎？我會把這個問題打開。

However, objectively speaking, it makes you wonder, somewhat for Donald Trump, the ends justify the means and in his interview in which he was asked if America expects a recession he indicated:

但是，客觀地說，這讓您對唐納德·特朗普有些疑惑，目的是有道理的。

“I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big, we’re bringing wealth back to America, that’s a big thing. There are always periods of … it takes a little time, it takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us, I mean I think it should be great.”

“我討厭預測這樣的事情。有一段時間的過渡，因為我們正在做的事情很大，我們將財富帶回美國，這是一件大事。總是有……花費一些時間，需要一點時間，但是我認為這對我們來說應該很棒，我的意思是我認為這應該很棒。”

Economic Factors

經濟因素

All of this has a direct impact on the economy, and here, too, things are very mixed. On the other hand, we saw that the shares of many American companies, especially infrastructure, experienced growth after the announcement, for example, that Donald Trump is resuming the development of oil, gas, and metals in the United States.

所有這些都會直接影響經濟，在這裡，事情也很混雜。另一方面，我們看到許多美國公司（尤其是基礎設施）的股票在宣布這一消息後經歷了增長，例如，唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）正在恢復美國的石油，天然氣和金屬的發展。

On the other hand, trade wars and sudden movements add uncertainty, and markets don’t like that. We have already seen several moments when the market was red after every news about tariffs imposed by Donald Trump.

另一方面，貿易戰和突然的運動增加了不確定性，市場不喜歡。在唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）徵收的有關關稅的每一個新聞之後，我們已經看到了片刻的市場。

But that is what it is and it’s similar to what Trump calls a transition, implying certain economic risks and costs. And he will probably continue down this path for several very important reasons.

但這就是事實，它類似於特朗普所謂的過渡，這意味著某些經濟風險和成本。由於幾個非常重要的原因，他可能會繼續走這條路。

One is the U.S. national debt, the servicing of which could be $1.5T by the end of the year. Investors are showing less and less interest in U.S. debt because they fear the government will not be able to pay it back, so they are buying fewer government bonds. For example, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield has crossed above 1.50% for the 1st time since the Financial Crisis and this may cause Japanese markets and investors to begin bringing money home.

其中之一是美國國家債務，到年底，其服務可能為1.5噸。投資者表現出對美國債務的興趣越來越少，因為他們擔心政府將無法償還，因此他們購買的政府債券更少。例如，自金融危機以來的第一次，日本政府債券收益率已經超過1.50％，這可能會導致日本市場和投資者開始將錢帶回家。

The other is that the fight against inflation is still

另一個是與通貨膨脹的鬥爭仍在