10 倍研究重點轉向投資組合，在通膨擔憂和市場擔憂中拋售加密貨幣

由於財務壓力和市場不穩定，10x Research 的 Markus Thielen 改變了他的加密策略。蒂倫以通膨驅動的風險資產前景令人擔憂為由，放棄了幾乎所有加密貨幣和風險資產，包括科技股。這項決定受到不利經濟指標的影響，例如美國債券市場預計聯準會今年降息次數將少於三次，而10年期公債殖利率本月將達到4.61%的峰值。

10x Research Pivots Investment Strategy, Exiting Crypto and Risk Assets Amid Economic Headwinds

10x 研究重點在於投資策略，在經濟逆風中退出加密貨幣和風險資產

Insightful Analysis by Markus Thielen Highlights Inflationary Pressures and Bearish Market Outlook

馬庫斯·蒂倫 (Markus Thielen) 的富有洞察力的分析強調了通膨壓力和看跌的市場前景

In a significant shift of strategy, influential market analyst Markus Thielen of 10x Research has announced the divestment of his firm's holdings in cryptocurrencies and other risk assets. The decision, disclosed in an investor note released earlier today, underscores the growing concerns surrounding inflationary pressures and the potential for an impending market correction.

10x Research 的頗具影響力的市場分析師 Markus Thielen 宣布撤資其公司持有的加密貨幣和其他風險資產，這是戰略的重大轉變。今天稍早發布的投資者報告中披露的這一決定凸顯了人們對通膨壓力和即將發生的市場調整的可能性日益增長的擔憂。

Thielen's analysis highlights a disconcerting outlook for risk assets, including both technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, largely driven by the impact of persistent and unexpected inflation rates. Projections from Bank of America anticipate US CPI headline inflation reaching 4.8% by November 2024, driven by a 0.4% average monthly increase in CPI inflation over the past three months. Such a trajectory would result in an inflation rate more than double the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

蒂倫的分析強調了風險資產（包括科技股和加密貨幣）令人不安的前景，這在很大程度上是由持續且意外的通膨率的影響所推動的。美國銀行預測，受過去三個月 CPI 通膨月均增幅 0.4% 的推動，到 2024 年 11 月，美國 CPI 總體通膨率將達到 4.8%。這樣的軌跡將導致通膨率超過聯準會 2% 目標的兩倍以上。

Economic Indicators Signal Bearish Landscape for Risk Assets

經濟指標預示著風險資產的看跌格局

This unfavorable economic outlook has prompted 10x Research's exit from risky assets. The US bond market currently anticipates fewer than three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, a substantial adjustment from previous forecasts. According to the CME FedWatch tool, market participants predominantly anticipate the Fed maintaining interest rates until at least the mid-September FOMC meeting.

這種不利的經濟前景促使 10x Research 退出風險資產。美國債券市場目前預計聯準會今年降息次數將少於三次，較先前的預測大幅調整。根據 CME FedWatch 工具，市場參與者主要預期聯準會至少在 9 月中旬 FOMC 會議之前維持利率不變。

Furthermore, 10-year Treasury Yields have surged to a peak of 4.61% this month, the highest level since November 2023. This rise in bond yields further complicates the investment landscape for risk assets.

此外，10年期公債殖利率本月飆升至4.61%的峰值，為2023年11月以來的最高水平。

"Our growing concern is that risk assets are teetering on the edge of a significant price correction," Thielen stated in the note. "We sold all our tech stocks last night as the Nasdaq is trading very poorly and reacting to the higher bond yield. We only hold a few high-conviction crypto coins. Overall, we are bearish on risk assets."

蒂倫在報告中表示：“我們越來越擔心風險資產正徘徊在價格大幅調整的邊緣。” 「我們昨晚賣掉了所有科技股，因為納斯達克交易非常糟糕，並對債券殖利率上升做出了反應。我們只持有一些高可信度的加密貨幣。總體而言，我們看跌風險資產。

Disappointing Performance of Bitcoin ETFs Reinforces Bearish Sentiment

比特幣 ETF 令人失望的表現加劇了看跌情緒

The bearish stance adopted by 10x Research is further supported by the lackluster performance of US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. Despite the SEC's approval of nearly a dozen such ETFs in January, initially fueling a surge in Bitcoin prices, the influx of capital has markedly slowed. This month, the five-day average net inflows into these ETFs dropped to zero, a stark contrast to the nearly $12 billion that flowed in earlier in the year.

美國上市現貨比特幣 ETF 的低迷表現進一步支撐了 10x Research 的看跌立場。儘管美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 一月份批准了近十隻此類 ETF，最初推動了比特幣價格的飆升，但資本流入已明顯放緩。本月，這些 ETF 的五天平均淨流入降至零，與今年稍早流入的近 120 億美元形成鮮明對比。

Bitcoin Halving May Offer Little Respite

比特幣減半可能不會帶來太多喘息的機會

Thielen also contemplates the upcoming Bitcoin network's quadrennial halving, scheduled for April 20. This event, which reduces the reward for mining a block of Bitcoin by 50%, has historically triggered bullish sentiment and price increases due to the perceived scarcity of Bitcoin. However, Thielen believes that the current market conditions may mitigate any potential rallies.

Thielen 也考慮了即將到來的比特幣網路四年一度的減半（定於4 月20 日）。引發了看漲情緒和價格上漲。然而，蒂倫認為，當前的市場狀況可能會削弱任何潛在的反彈。

"It is essential to understand that trading is a continuous game with high-conviction opportunities. The key is to keep analyzing the markets and uncovering those opportunities when the odds are in your favor. There are times when we advocate for a total risk-on approach and when the priority is safeguarding your capital, enabling you to seize opportunities at lower levels," Thielen stated.

「重要的是要明白，交易是一場持續不斷的遊戲，充滿著高度確信的機會。關鍵是要不斷分析市場，並在機會對你有利時發現這些機會。有時，我們主張完全冒險當優先考慮的是保護您的資本時，您可以採取這種方法，使您能夠抓住較低級別的機會，」蒂倫說。

Agile Trading Strategy Defended Amid Criticism

敏捷交易策略在批評中得到辯護

In a notable exchange with Matthew Graham of Ryze Labs, Thielen defended 10x Research's trading strategy, which has faced criticism for what was described as erratic decision-making. Graham pointed to recent fluctuations in 10x Research's stance on Bitcoin, including a research note in early April that predicted a potential rally to $80,000, followed by a more cautious view and the recent sell-off.

在與 Ryze Labs 的 Matthew Graham 的一次值得注意的交流中，Thielen 為 10x Research 的交易策略辯護，該策略因決策不穩定而受到批評。 Graham 指出 10x Research 最近對比特幣的立場出現波動，包括 4 月初的一份研究報告預測比特幣可能反彈至 80,000 美元，隨後出現了更加謹慎的看法和最近的拋售。

Thielen responded, "Actually, no. We have been cautious since March 8, and when the triangle breakout failed, we worked with the $68,300 stop loss. This is simply risk-reward trading." This defense highlights the volatile nature of crypto trading and the necessity for agile strategies in response to rapidly changing market conditions.

蒂倫回應道，“事實上，沒有。我們從3月8日開始就一直保持謹慎，當三角形突破失敗時，我們就以68,300美元的止損進行操作。這簡直就是風險回報交易。”這種防禦凸顯了加密貨幣交易的波動性以及採取敏捷策略來應對快速變化的市場條件的必要性。

Re-Entry Promised at Lower Levels

承諾在較低級別重新進入

Thielen concluded by expressing confidence in a strong re-entry into the market under more favorable conditions: "Will buy back with both hands at 52,000 – promise."

Thielen 最後表達了對在更有利的條件下強勁重返市場的信心：“將在 52,000 點雙手回購——承諾。”

At the time of writing, BTC traded at $63,045.

截至撰寫本文時，BTC 交易價格為 63,045 美元。