10 倍研究重点转向投资组合，在通胀担忧和市场担忧中抛售加密货币

由于财务压力和市场不稳定，10x Research 的 Markus Thielen 改变了他的加密策略。蒂伦以通胀驱动的风险资产前景令人担忧为由，放弃了几乎所有加密货币和风险资产，包括科技股。这一决定受到不利经济指标的影响，例如美国债券市场预计美联储今年降息次数将少于三次，而10年期国债收益率本月将达到4.61%的峰值。

10x Research Pivots Investment Strategy, Exiting Crypto and Risk Assets Amid Economic Headwinds

10x 研究重点关注投资策略，在经济逆风中退出加密货币和风险资产

Insightful Analysis by Markus Thielen Highlights Inflationary Pressures and Bearish Market Outlook

马库斯·蒂伦 (Markus Thielen) 的富有洞察力的分析强调了通胀压力和看跌的市场前景

In a significant shift of strategy, influential market analyst Markus Thielen of 10x Research has announced the divestment of his firm's holdings in cryptocurrencies and other risk assets. The decision, disclosed in an investor note released earlier today, underscores the growing concerns surrounding inflationary pressures and the potential for an impending market correction.

10x Research 的颇具影响力的市场分析师马库斯·蒂伦 (Markus Thielen) 宣布撤资其公司持有的加密货币和其他风险资产，这是战略的重大转变。今天早些时候发布的一份投资者报告中披露的这一决定凸显了人们对通胀压力和即将发生的市场调整的可能性日益增长的担忧。

Thielen's analysis highlights a disconcerting outlook for risk assets, including both technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, largely driven by the impact of persistent and unexpected inflation rates. Projections from Bank of America anticipate US CPI headline inflation reaching 4.8% by November 2024, driven by a 0.4% average monthly increase in CPI inflation over the past three months. Such a trajectory would result in an inflation rate more than double the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

蒂伦的分析强调了风险资产（包括科技股和加密货币）令人不安的前景，这在很大程度上是由持续且意外的通胀率的影响推动的。美国银行预测，受过去三个月 CPI 通胀月均增幅 0.4% 的推动，到 2024 年 11 月，美国 CPI 总体通胀率将达到 4.8%。这样的轨迹将导致通胀率超过美联储 2% 目标的两倍以上。

Economic Indicators Signal Bearish Landscape for Risk Assets

经济指标预示着风险资产的看跌格局

This unfavorable economic outlook has prompted 10x Research's exit from risky assets. The US bond market currently anticipates fewer than three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, a substantial adjustment from previous forecasts. According to the CME FedWatch tool, market participants predominantly anticipate the Fed maintaining interest rates until at least the mid-September FOMC meeting.

这种不利的经济前景促使 10x Research 退出风险资产。美国债券市场目前预计美联储今年降息次数将少于三次，较之前的预测大幅调整。根据 CME FedWatch 工具，市场参与者主要预计美联储至少会在 9 月中旬 FOMC 会议之前维持利率不变。

Furthermore, 10-year Treasury Yields have surged to a peak of 4.61% this month, the highest level since November 2023. This rise in bond yields further complicates the investment landscape for risk assets.

此外，10年期国债收益率本月飙升至4.61%的峰值，为2023年11月以来的最高水平。债券收益率的上升使风险资产的投资环境进一步复杂化。

"Our growing concern is that risk assets are teetering on the edge of a significant price correction," Thielen stated in the note. "We sold all our tech stocks last night as the Nasdaq is trading very poorly and reacting to the higher bond yield. We only hold a few high-conviction crypto coins. Overall, we are bearish on risk assets."

蒂伦在报告中表示：“我们越来越担心风险资产正徘徊在价格大幅调整的边缘。” “我们昨晚卖掉了所有科技股，因为纳斯达克交易非常糟糕，并对债券收益率上升做出了反应。我们只持有一些高可信度的加密货币。总体而言，我们看跌风险资产。”

Disappointing Performance of Bitcoin ETFs Reinforces Bearish Sentiment

比特币 ETF 令人失望的表现加剧了看跌情绪

The bearish stance adopted by 10x Research is further supported by the lackluster performance of US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. Despite the SEC's approval of nearly a dozen such ETFs in January, initially fueling a surge in Bitcoin prices, the influx of capital has markedly slowed. This month, the five-day average net inflows into these ETFs dropped to zero, a stark contrast to the nearly $12 billion that flowed in earlier in the year.

美国上市现货比特币 ETF 的低迷表现进一步支撑了 10x Research 的看跌立场。尽管美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 一月份批准了近十只此类 ETF，最初推动了比特币价格的飙升，但资本流入已明显放缓。本月，这些 ETF 的五天平均净流入降至零，与今年早些时候流入的近 120 亿美元形成鲜明对比。

Bitcoin Halving May Offer Little Respite

比特币减半可能不会带来多少喘息的机会

Thielen also contemplates the upcoming Bitcoin network's quadrennial halving, scheduled for April 20. This event, which reduces the reward for mining a block of Bitcoin by 50%, has historically triggered bullish sentiment and price increases due to the perceived scarcity of Bitcoin. However, Thielen believes that the current market conditions may mitigate any potential rallies.

Thielen 还考虑了即将到来的比特币网络四年一度的减半（定于 4 月 20 日）。这一事件将开采一个比特币区块的奖励减少 50%，历史上由于人们认为比特币稀缺而引发了看涨情绪和价格上涨。然而，蒂伦认为，当前的市场状况可能会削弱任何潜在的反弹。

"It is essential to understand that trading is a continuous game with high-conviction opportunities. The key is to keep analyzing the markets and uncovering those opportunities when the odds are in your favor. There are times when we advocate for a total risk-on approach and when the priority is safeguarding your capital, enabling you to seize opportunities at lower levels," Thielen stated.

“重要的是要明白，交易是一场持续不断的游戏，充满着高度确信的机会。关键是要不断分析市场，并在机会对你有利时发现这些机会。有时，我们主张完全冒险当优先考虑的是保护您的资本时，您可以采取这种方法，从而使您能够抓住较低级别的机会，”蒂伦说。

Agile Trading Strategy Defended Amid Criticism

敏捷交易策略在批评中得到辩护

In a notable exchange with Matthew Graham of Ryze Labs, Thielen defended 10x Research's trading strategy, which has faced criticism for what was described as erratic decision-making. Graham pointed to recent fluctuations in 10x Research's stance on Bitcoin, including a research note in early April that predicted a potential rally to $80,000, followed by a more cautious view and the recent sell-off.

在与 Ryze Labs 的 Matthew Graham 的一次值得注意的交流中，Thielen 为 10x Research 的交易策略辩护，该策略因决策不稳定而受到批评。 Graham 指出 10x Research 最近对比特币的立场出现波动，包括​​ 4 月初的一份研究报告预测比特币可能反弹至 80,000 美元，随后出现了更加谨慎的看法和最近的抛售。

Thielen responded, "Actually, no. We have been cautious since March 8, and when the triangle breakout failed, we worked with the $68,300 stop loss. This is simply risk-reward trading." This defense highlights the volatile nature of crypto trading and the necessity for agile strategies in response to rapidly changing market conditions.

蒂伦回应道，“事实上，没有。我们从3月8日开始就一直保持谨慎，当三角形突破失败时，我们就以68,300美元的止损进行操作。这简直就是风险回报交易。”这种防御凸显了加密货币交易的波动性以及采取敏捷策略来应对快速变化的市场条件的必要性。

Re-Entry Promised at Lower Levels

承诺在较低级别重新进入

Thielen concluded by expressing confidence in a strong re-entry into the market under more favorable conditions: "Will buy back with both hands at 52,000 – promise."

Thielen 最后表达了对在更有利的条件下强劲重返市场的信心：“将在 52,000 点双手回购——承诺。”

At the time of writing, BTC traded at $63,045.

截至撰写本文时，BTC 交易价格为 63,045 美元。