了解比特幣的存量到流量（S2F）回歸模型：確定市場進入和退出時機的關鍵指標

比特幣 [BTC] 最近飆升至新的 ATH，引發了人們對關鍵市場指標的新興趣，尤其是庫存流量 (S2F) 回歸模型。

Bitcoin’s [BTC] recent price surge to a new all-time high (ATH) has shifted the focus back to key market metrics, particularly the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) reversion model.

比特幣 [BTC] 最近的價格飆升至歷史新高 (ATH)，並將焦點轉移回關鍵市場指標，特別是庫存流量 (S2F) 回歸模型。

The S2F reversion metric measures the deviation of Bitcoin’s price from its expected value, providing valuable insight for investors seeking to time their market entries and exits.

S2F 回歸指標衡量比特幣價格與其預期價值的偏差，為尋求進入和退出市場時機的投資者提供寶貴的見解。

Traders have come to rely on this model to gauge market sentiment and pinpoint optimal profit-taking opportunities.

交易者開始依靠這種模型來衡量市場情緒並確定最佳的獲利了結機會。

Breaking down Bitcoin’s key metric: the S2F reversion

解析比特幣的關鍵指標：S2F 迴歸

Bitcoin’s key metric, the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) reversion, assesses the deviation of BTC’s price from its expected value, as predicted by the widely followed Stock-to-Flow model.

比特幣的關鍵指標—庫存流量（S2F）回歸，評估了 BTC 價格與其預期值的偏差，正如廣泛遵循的庫存流量模型所預測的那樣。

This model takes into account the scarcity of Bitcoin, tying its rate of supply issuance to its market value.

該模型考慮到了比特幣的稀缺性，將其供應發行率與其市場價值掛鉤。

The S2F reversion metric quantifies the extent to which the actual price diverges from the predicted price, offering a data-driven perspective on market trends.

S2F 迴歸指標量化了實際價格與預測價格的偏離程度，提供了有關市場趨勢的數據驅動視角。

Understanding this metric is especially crucial during pivotal market movements, such as Bitcoin’s recent ATH of $106,352.

了解這項指標在關鍵的市場波動期間尤其重要，例如比特幣最近的 ATH 為 106,352 美元。

By identifying periods of price overextension or undervaluation, the S2F reversion metric provides investors with a systematic tool for assessing market sentiment.

透過識別價格過度擴張或低估的時期，S2F 回歸指標為投資者提供了評估市場情緒的系統工具。

This helps traders not only to spot profitable entry points, but also to minimize risks during volatile periods. Its structured approach makes it an invaluable asset for timing market decisions effectively.

這不僅可以幫助交易者找到有利可圖的切入點，還可以在波動時期將風險降至最低。其結構化方法使其成為有效掌握市場決策時機的寶貴資產。

Bitcoin’s key metric: the 2.5 and 3.0 thresholds in S2F

比特幣的關鍵指標：S2F 中的 2.5 和 3.0 閾值

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost highlights the significance of specific S2F reversion thresholds — 2.5 and 3.0 — in optimizing Bitcoin profit-taking strategies.

CryptoQuant 分析師 Darkfost 強調了特定 S2F 反轉閾值（2.5 和 3.0）在優化比特幣獲利回吐策略的重要性。

A value above 2.5 signifies moderate profit-taking opportunities, reflecting growing market enthusiasm without being overly risky.

高於2.5的數值意味著適度的獲利了結機會，反映了市場熱情的成長，但風險並不太大。

On the other hand, a value that crosses the 3.0 threshold often indicates market overheating, suggesting it’s time for more substantial profit-taking to avoid potential downturns.

另一方面，超過 3.0 門檻的數值通常表示市場過熱，表示是時候進行更大幅度的獲利了結以避免潛在的低迷。

Darkfost’s suggestion is a two-step approach: secure smaller gains at 2.5 and larger profits at 3 This strategy allows traders to balance risk and reward, leveraging historical data to make informed decisions.

Darkfost 的建議是一個兩步驟的方法：在 2.5 處確保較小的收益，在 3 處確保較大的利潤。

For example, as Bitcoin surged to $106,352, these thresholds provide clarity on when to act amidst market euphoria. Employing this model ensures traders don’t miss profit opportunities while staying cautious during speculative highs.

例如，隨著比特幣飆升至 106,352 美元，這些門檻明確了何時在市場樂觀情緒中採取行動。採用此模型可以確保交易者不會錯過獲利機會，同時在投機高點保持謹慎。

Bitcoin’s recent market performance

比特幣近期市場表現

Bitcoin’s recent price action showcases a strong uptrend, breaching the $106,000 price level with steady momentum.

比特幣近期的價格走勢顯示出強勁的上漲趨勢，以穩定的勢頭突破了 106,000 美元的價格水平。

The chart highlights growing trading volume, signaling robust buying interest as price climbs. Bitcoin’s price was seen rising within a channel, with support at the lower trendline and resistance at the upper trendline.

這張圖表凸顯了交易量的成長，顯示隨著價格上漲，購買興趣強勁。比特幣的價格在通道內上漲，下方趨勢線有支撐，上方趨勢線有阻力。

The RSI at 71.69 indicated that Bitcoin was slightly overbought, suggesting heightened demand but potential for a short-term correction.

RSI 為 71.69 表示比特幣略有超買，表示需求增加，但有可能出現短期回檔。

Meanwhile, the OBV trend reflects consistent accumulation, suggesting a net increase in buying volume over time and supporting bullish sentiment.

同時，OBV 趨勢反映了持續的積累，表明購買量隨著時間的推移而淨增加，並支持看漲情緒。