了解比特币的存量流量（S2F）回归模型：判断市场进入和退出时机的关键指标

比特币 [BTC] 最近飙升至新的 ATH，引发了人们对关键市场指标的新兴趣，尤其是库存流量 (S2F) 回归模型。

Bitcoin’s [BTC] recent price surge to a new all-time high (ATH) has shifted the focus back to key market metrics, particularly the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) reversion model.

比特币 [BTC] 最近的价格飙升至历史新高 (ATH)，已将焦点转移回关键市场指标，特别是库存流量 (S2F) 回归模型。

The S2F reversion metric measures the deviation of Bitcoin’s price from its expected value, providing valuable insight for investors seeking to time their market entries and exits.

S2F 回归指标衡量比特币价格与其预期价值的偏差，为寻求进入和退出市场时机的投资者提供宝贵的见解。

Traders have come to rely on this model to gauge market sentiment and pinpoint optimal profit-taking opportunities.

交易者开始依靠这种模型来衡量市场情绪并确定最佳的获利了结机会。

Breaking down Bitcoin’s key metric: the S2F reversion

解析比特币的关键指标：S2F 回归

Bitcoin’s key metric, the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) reversion, assesses the deviation of BTC’s price from its expected value, as predicted by the widely followed Stock-to-Flow model.

比特币的关键指标——库存流量（S2F）回归，评估了 BTC 价格与其预期值的偏差，正如广泛遵循的库存流量模型所预测的那样。

This model takes into account the scarcity of Bitcoin, tying its rate of supply issuance to its market value.

该模型考虑到了比特币的稀缺性，将其供应发行率与其市场价值挂钩。

The S2F reversion metric quantifies the extent to which the actual price diverges from the predicted price, offering a data-driven perspective on market trends.

S2F 回归指标量化了实际价格与预测价格的偏离程度，提供了有关市场趋势的数据驱动视角。

Understanding this metric is especially crucial during pivotal market movements, such as Bitcoin’s recent ATH of $106,352.

了解这一指标在关键的市场波动期间尤其重要，例如比特币最近的 ATH 为 106,352 美元。

By identifying periods of price overextension or undervaluation, the S2F reversion metric provides investors with a systematic tool for assessing market sentiment.

通过识别价格过度扩张或低估的时期，S2F 回归指标为投资者提供了评估市场情绪的系统工具。

This helps traders not only to spot profitable entry points, but also to minimize risks during volatile periods. Its structured approach makes it an invaluable asset for timing market decisions effectively.

这不仅可以帮助交易者找到有利可图的切入点，还可以在波动时期将风险降至最低。其结构化方法使其成为有效把握市场决策时机的宝贵资产。

Bitcoin’s key metric: the 2.5 and 3.0 thresholds in S2F

比特币的关键指标：S2F 中的 2.5 和 3.0 阈值

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost highlights the significance of specific S2F reversion thresholds — 2.5 and 3.0 — in optimizing Bitcoin profit-taking strategies.

CryptoQuant 分析师 Darkfost 强调了特定 S2F 反转阈值（2.5 和 3.0）在优化比特币获利回吐策略方面的重要性。

A value above 2.5 signifies moderate profit-taking opportunities, reflecting growing market enthusiasm without being overly risky.

高于2.5的值意味着适度的获利了结机会，反映了市场热情的增长，但风险并不太大。

On the other hand, a value that crosses the 3.0 threshold often indicates market overheating, suggesting it’s time for more substantial profit-taking to avoid potential downturns.

另一方面，超过 3.0 门槛的值通常表明市场过热，表明是时候进行更大幅度的获利了结以避免潜在的低迷。

Darkfost’s suggestion is a two-step approach: secure smaller gains at 2.5 and larger profits at 3 This strategy allows traders to balance risk and reward, leveraging historical data to make informed decisions.

Darkfost 的建议是一个两步走的方法：在 2.5 处确保较小的收益，在 3 处确保较大的利润。该策略允许交易者平衡风险和回报，利用历史数据做出明智的决策。

For example, as Bitcoin surged to $106,352, these thresholds provide clarity on when to act amidst market euphoria. Employing this model ensures traders don’t miss profit opportunities while staying cautious during speculative highs.

例如，随着比特币飙升至 106,352 美元，这些阈值明确了何时在市场乐观情绪中采取行动。采用这种模型可以确保交易者不会错过盈利机会，同时在投机高点保持谨慎。

Bitcoin’s recent market performance

比特币近期市场表现

Bitcoin’s recent price action showcases a strong uptrend, breaching the $106,000 price level with steady momentum.

比特币近期的价格走势显示出强劲的上涨趋势，以稳定的势头突破了 106,000 美元的价格水平。

The chart highlights growing trading volume, signaling robust buying interest as price climbs. Bitcoin’s price was seen rising within a channel, with support at the lower trendline and resistance at the upper trendline.

该图表凸显了交易量的增长，表明随着价格上涨，购买兴趣强劲。比特币的价格在通道内上涨，支撑位于下方趋势线，阻力位于上方趋势线。

The RSI at 71.69 indicated that Bitcoin was slightly overbought, suggesting heightened demand but potential for a short-term correction.

RSI 为 71.69 表明比特币略有超买，表明需求增加，但有可能出现短期回调。

Meanwhile, the OBV trend reflects consistent accumulation, suggesting a net increase in buying volume over time and supporting bullish sentiment.

与此同时，OBV 趋势反映了持续的积累，表明购买量随着时间的推移而净增加，并支持看涨情绪。