TLDR：中國允許人民幣貶值的舉動可能會觸發資本飛行到比特幣

據行業專家稱，中國最近允許人民幣超越關鍵門檻的行動可能會觸發資本飛行到比特幣。

China's move to allow the yuan to depreciate past a key threshold could trigger capital flight into Bitcoin, according to industry experts.

據行業專家稱，中國為允許人民幣超越關鍵門檻貶值的舉動可能會觸發資本飛行到比特幣。

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set its daily yuan fix at 7.2038 per dollar on Tuesday, the weakest level since September, in what appears to be a response to President Donald Trump's aggressive trade tariffs.

中國人民銀行（PBOC）將每日人民幣固定在星期二，這是9月以來最弱的水平，這似乎是對唐納德·特朗普總統的積極貿易關稅的回應。

This currency adjustment comes amid heightened tensions between the world’s two largest economies. President Trump recently threatened to increase tariffs against China, prompting the Asian nation to state that it “will fight to the end” and deploy countermeasures to defend its interests.

在世界上兩個最大的經濟體之間的緊張局勢加劇之中，這種貨幣調整是出現的。特朗普總統最近揚言要增加對中國的關稅，促使亞洲國家聲明它“將要戰鬥到最終”，並部署對策來捍衛其利益。

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes was quick to spot the cryptocurrency implications. “If not the Fed, then the PBOC will give us the Yahtzee ingredients,” Hayes posted on X on Monday.

Bitmex創始人Arthur Hayes很快發現了加密貨幣的影響。海斯在X週一發布。

He was referring to the five factors needed to resume the crypto market bull run, which include the president’s impeachment trial, the Fed pivoting on interest rates, and the PBOC setting its yuan fix above 7.2.

他指的是恢復加密貨幣市場公牛運行所需的五個因素，其中包括總統的彈each審判，聯邦制的利率樞紐以及PBOC將其元素固定在7.2以上。

According to Hayes, if the PBOC sets its yuan fix above 7.2, it will be a clear indication that the central bank is allowing the yuan to depreciate freely. This could lead to capital flight into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

根據海斯的說法，如果PBOC將其元素固定在7.2以上，這將明顯表明中央銀行允許人民幣自由貶值。這可能會導致資本飛往比特幣和其他加密貨幣。

“It worked in 2013, it worked in 2015, it can work in 2025,” Hayes added, noting that when the yuan gets weak, Chinese capital usually flows into BTC.

海斯補充說：“它在2013年工作，在2015年工作，可以在2025年工作。”

This pattern was evident in August 2015 when China devalued the yuan by nearly 2% against the US dollar, the largest single-day drop in decades.

這種模式在2015年8月在中國兌美元兌美元（幾十年來最大的單日下降）中貶值了近2％。

The move sparked increased interest in Bitcoin during this period, although analysts debate whether this directly links to the yuan devaluation.

在此期間，此舉激發了人們對比特幣的興趣，儘管分析師的辯論是否直接與人民幣貶值有關。

However, a similar occurrence in August 2019 saw the yuan fall below the symbolic 7:1 ratio against the USD, leading to a 20% surge in Bitcoin within the first week of that month.

但是，2019年8月發生的類似發生的情況下，人民幣降至符號7：1與美元的比率低於象徵性的比率，從而導致比特幣在該月的第一周內激增了20％。

This observation led some analysts to suggest that Chinese investors were utilizing the cryptocurrency as a hedge against currency weakness.

這一觀察結果導致一些分析師表明，中國投資者正在利用加密貨幣作為對沖貨幣弱點的對沖。

Ben Zhou, co-founder and CEO of Bybit, also weighed in on X, stating that "China will try to lower RMB to counter the tariff. Historically, whenever RMB drops, a lot of Chinese capital flows into BTC, bullish for BTC."

Bybit的聯合創始人兼首席執行官Ben Zhou也稱讚了X，並指出：“中國將試圖降低RMB以應對關稅。從歷史上看，每當RMB下降時，許多中國資本都流入BTC，BTC，BLOISH for BTC。”

Despite the historical correlation, China's increasingly harsh stance on cryptocurrencies could pose obstacles to this narrative.

儘管存在歷史性的相關性，但中國對加密貨幣的越來越嚴厲的立場可能會構成這種敘述的障礙。

The country has implemented some of the world’s strictest crypto regulations in recent years.

近年來，該國實施了世界上最嚴格的加密法規。

Earlier this year, a new regulation mandated Chinese banks to monitor and report suspicious international transactions, including those involving cryptocurrency.

今年早些時候，一項新的法規要求中國銀行監視和報告可疑的國際交易，包括涉及加密貨幣的交易。

These measures could make it difficult for local traders to diversify into Bitcoin and other digital assets even during yuan depreciation.

這些措施可能使當地交易者很難在人民幣折舊期間將比特幣和其他數字資產多樣化。

“Since August 2024, the Supreme People’s Court has increased the legal risks for individuals using cryptocurrencies in connection with money laundering, which could easily extend to cases of capital flight,” Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, noted in a note to clients on Monday.

“自2024年8月以來，最高人民法院已增加了使用加密貨幣與洗錢有關的個人的法律風險，這很容易擴展到資本飛行案件，” 10倍研究的創始人Markus Thielen週一在向客戶的註釋中指出。

The apex court’s stance means local traders may face difficulties when attempting to move capital into Bitcoin. Banks are now obligated to investigate and report risky crypto trades, which may result in financial restrictions and potential blacklisting for traders.

最高法院的立場意味著當地商人試圖將資本轉移到比特幣時可能會遇到困難。銀行現在有義務調查和報告風險的加密交易，這可能會導致財務限制和對交易者的潛在黑名單。

The PBOC’s move signals a shift to a managed depreciation of the yuan. The 7.2 level has long been considered a “harder line in the sand” for the central bank.

PBOC的舉動標誌著轉向人民幣的託管貶值。長期以來，7.2水平一直被認為是中央銀行的“沙灘上的硬線”。

While the USD/CNY pair has traded above this level a few times since 2022, it has never established a foothold there.

自2022年以來，美元/CNY對以高於此級別的交易，但它從未在那裡建立立足點。

This strategic currency weakening helps keep China’s exports cheaper and more competitive, potentially offsetting the impact of Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods.

這種戰略貨幣削弱有助於使中國的出口更便宜，更具競爭力，從而抵消特朗普關稅對中國商品的影響。

However, it also creates conditions that have historically driven wealthy Chinese citizens to seek wealth preservation outside government reach.

但是，它還創造了歷史上有富有的中國公民在政府範圍之外尋求財富保護的條件。

Crypto asset manager Grayscale previously noted that currency devaluations damage trust in central banks and government financial management, pushing people toward decentralized alternatives like Bitcoin.

加密資產經理Grayscale此前指出，貨幣貶值損害了中央銀行和政府財務管理，促使人們朝著分散的替代品之類的替代品。

This distrust in traditional financial systems often benefits cryptocurrency markets.

對傳統金融系統的不信任通常會使加密貨幣市場受益。

Bitcoin is currently trading at $80,253.26, with a market capitalization of $1,592,882,992,461 and a market dominance of 62.56%.

比特幣目前的交易價格為80,253.26美元，市值為1,592,882,992,461美元，市場優勢為62.56％。

The cryptocurrency's fixed supply strengthens its appeal as a hedge against fiat depreciation, making it a potential beneficiary of China's economic strategies.

加密貨幣的固定供應增強了其作為對菲亞特貶值的對沖的吸引力，使其成為中國經濟戰略的潛在受益者。