TLDR：中国允许人民币贬值的举动可能会触发资本飞行到比特币

据行业专家称，中国最近允许人民币超越关键门槛的行动可能会触发资本飞行到比特币。

China's move to allow the yuan to depreciate past a key threshold could trigger capital flight into Bitcoin, according to industry experts.

据行业专家称，中国为允许人民币超越关键门槛贬值的举动可能会触发资本飞行到比特币。

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set its daily yuan fix at 7.2038 per dollar on Tuesday, the weakest level since September, in what appears to be a response to President Donald Trump's aggressive trade tariffs.

中国人民银行（PBOC）将每日人民币固定在星期二，这是9月以来最弱的水平，这似乎是对唐纳德·特朗普总统的积极贸易关税的回应。

This currency adjustment comes amid heightened tensions between the world’s two largest economies. President Trump recently threatened to increase tariffs against China, prompting the Asian nation to state that it “will fight to the end” and deploy countermeasures to defend its interests.

在世界上两个最大的经济体之间的紧张局势加剧之中，这种货币调整是出现的。特朗普总统最近扬言要增加对中国的关税，促使亚洲国家声明它“将要战斗到最终”，并部署对策来捍卫其利益。

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes was quick to spot the cryptocurrency implications. “If not the Fed, then the PBOC will give us the Yahtzee ingredients,” Hayes posted on X on Monday.

Bitmex创始人Arthur Hayes很快发现了加密货币的影响。海斯在X周一发布。

He was referring to the five factors needed to resume the crypto market bull run, which include the president’s impeachment trial, the Fed pivoting on interest rates, and the PBOC setting its yuan fix above 7.2.

他指的是恢复加密货币市场公牛运行所需的五个因素，其中包括总统的弹each审判，联邦制的利率枢纽以及PBOC将其元素固定在7.2以上。

According to Hayes, if the PBOC sets its yuan fix above 7.2, it will be a clear indication that the central bank is allowing the yuan to depreciate freely. This could lead to capital flight into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

根据海斯的说法，如果PBOC将其元素固定在7.2以上，这将明显表明中央银行允许人民币自由贬值。这可能会导致资本飞往比特币和其他加密货币。

“It worked in 2013, it worked in 2015, it can work in 2025,” Hayes added, noting that when the yuan gets weak, Chinese capital usually flows into BTC.

海斯补充说：“它在2013年工作，在2015年工作，可以在2025年工作。”

This pattern was evident in August 2015 when China devalued the yuan by nearly 2% against the US dollar, the largest single-day drop in decades.

这种模式在2015年8月在中国兑美元兑美元（几十年来最大的单日下降）中贬值了近2％。

The move sparked increased interest in Bitcoin during this period, although analysts debate whether this directly links to the yuan devaluation.

在此期间，此举激发了人们对比特币的兴趣，尽管分析师的辩论是否直接与人民币贬值有关。

However, a similar occurrence in August 2019 saw the yuan fall below the symbolic 7:1 ratio against the USD, leading to a 20% surge in Bitcoin within the first week of that month.

但是，2019年8月发生的类似发生的情况下，人民币降至符号7：1与美元的比率低于象征性的比率，从而导致比特币在该月的第一周内激增了20％。

This observation led some analysts to suggest that Chinese investors were utilizing the cryptocurrency as a hedge against currency weakness.

这一观察结果导致一些分析师表明，中国投资者正在利用加密货币作为对冲货币弱点的对冲。

Ben Zhou, co-founder and CEO of Bybit, also weighed in on X, stating that "China will try to lower RMB to counter the tariff. Historically, whenever RMB drops, a lot of Chinese capital flows into BTC, bullish for BTC."

Bybit的联合创始人兼首席执行官Ben Zhou也称赞了X，并指出：“中国将试图降低RMB以应对关税。从历史上看，每当RMB下降时，许多中国资本都流入BTC，BTC，BLOISH for BTC。”

Despite the historical correlation, China's increasingly harsh stance on cryptocurrencies could pose obstacles to this narrative.

尽管存在历史性的相关性，但中国对加密货币的越来越严厉的立场可能会构成这种叙述的障碍。

The country has implemented some of the world’s strictest crypto regulations in recent years.

近年来，该国实施了世界上最严格的加密法规。

Earlier this year, a new regulation mandated Chinese banks to monitor and report suspicious international transactions, including those involving cryptocurrency.

今年早些时候，一项新的法规要求中国银行监视和报告可疑的国际交易，包括涉及加密货币的交易。

These measures could make it difficult for local traders to diversify into Bitcoin and other digital assets even during yuan depreciation.

这些措施可能使当地交易者很难在人民币折旧期间将比特币和其他数字资产多样化。

“Since August 2024, the Supreme People’s Court has increased the legal risks for individuals using cryptocurrencies in connection with money laundering, which could easily extend to cases of capital flight,” Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, noted in a note to clients on Monday.

“自2024年8月以来，最高人民法院已增加了使用加密货币与洗钱有关的个人的法律风险，这很容易扩展到资本飞行案件，” 10倍研究的创始人Markus Thielen周一在向客户的注释中指出。

The apex court’s stance means local traders may face difficulties when attempting to move capital into Bitcoin. Banks are now obligated to investigate and report risky crypto trades, which may result in financial restrictions and potential blacklisting for traders.

最高法院的立场意味着当地商人试图将资本转移到比特币时可能会遇到困难。银行现在有义务调查和报告风险的加密交易，这可能会导致财务限制和对交易者的潜在黑名单。

The PBOC’s move signals a shift to a managed depreciation of the yuan. The 7.2 level has long been considered a “harder line in the sand” for the central bank.

PBOC的举动标志着转向人民币的托管贬值。长期以来，7.2水平一直被认为是中央银行的“沙滩上的硬线”。

While the USD/CNY pair has traded above this level a few times since 2022, it has never established a foothold there.

自2022年以来，美元/CNY对以高于此级别的交易，但它从未在那里建立立足点。

This strategic currency weakening helps keep China’s exports cheaper and more competitive, potentially offsetting the impact of Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods.

这种战略货币削弱有助于使中国的出口更便宜，更具竞争力，从而抵消特朗普关税对中国商品的影响。

However, it also creates conditions that have historically driven wealthy Chinese citizens to seek wealth preservation outside government reach.

但是，它还创造了历史上有富有的中国公民在政府范围之外寻求财富保护的条件。

Crypto asset manager Grayscale previously noted that currency devaluations damage trust in central banks and government financial management, pushing people toward decentralized alternatives like Bitcoin.

加密资产经理Grayscale此前指出，货币贬值损害了中央银行和政府财务管理，促使人们朝着分散的替代品之类的替代品。

This distrust in traditional financial systems often benefits cryptocurrency markets.

对传统金融系统的不信任通常会使加密货币市场受益。

Bitcoin is currently trading at $80,253.26, with a market capitalization of $1,592,882,992,461 and a market dominance of 62.56%.

比特币目前的交易价格为80,253.26美元，市值为1,592,882,992,461美元，市场优势为62.56％。

The cryptocurrency's fixed supply strengthens its appeal as a hedge against fiat depreciation, making it a potential beneficiary of China's economic strategies.

加密货币的固定供应增强了其作为对菲亚特贬值的对冲的吸引力，使其成为中国经济战略的潜在受益者。