標準普爾500指數（SPX）已經從2月中旬的高高降低了5％

在昨天的關稅拋售之前，標準普爾500指數（SPX）已經從2月中旬的歷史最高點撤回了5％。

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) suffered a setback yesterday as rising interest rates and the looming threat of a government shutdown sparked selling pressure. This يأتي بعد عام من المكاسب القوية التي دفعت السوق إلى أعلى مستوياته على الإطلاق في وقت سابق من العام. كما أصبحت مساحة الس債券 أكثر صعوبة هذا العام.

標準普爾500指數（SPX）曾遭受挫折，因為利率上升，而Goovernment關閉的迫在眉睫的威脅引發了銷售壓力。這是一年的強勁收益，將市場推向了今年早些時候的最高水平。債券今年也變得越來越困難。

Before yesterday’s tariff-fueled selloff, the SPX had already pulled back 5% from its mid-February all-time high. Sentiment surveys, such as the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) poll, indicate investors are getting nervous. Is their concern justified? This week, I’m analyzing historical 5% pullbacks to see if it’s a threshold that increases the likelihood of a larger decline. I’m examining pullbacks from a few angles to see if we can gain insights into where we go from here.

在昨天的關稅拋售之前，SPX已經從2月中旬的歷史最高點撤回了5％。情感調查，例如美國最新的個人投資者協會（AAII）民意調查，表明投資者感到緊張。他們的關注是合理的嗎？本週，我正在分析歷史5％的回調，以查看這是否是增加較大下降可能性的閾值。我正在從幾個角度檢查回調，以查看我們是否可以深入了解我們從這裡走的地方。

Stocks After 5% Pullbacks

5％回調後的股票

For the data below, I went back to 1950 and found each time the SPX fell 5% after reaching an all-time high. In the 30 days after the initial pullback, the SPX averaged a return of 1.9%, with 74% of the returns positive. The second table shows the typical one month returns since 1950 for the SPX was 0.75%, with 62% of the returns positive. From the table below, it indicates 5% pullbacks have been good short-term buying opportunities.

對於下面的數據，我回到了1950年，發現SPX在達到歷史最高水平後每次下跌5％。在最初回調後的30天內，SPX平均收益為1.9％，收益率為74％。第二個表顯示，自1950年以來，SPX的典型回報率為0.75％，收益率為62％。從下表中，它表​​明5％的回調是良好的短期購買機會。

However, the returns over the next year, show slight underperformance. The last row of the table shows the percentage of time a new high was reached in the timeframe. So, 32% of the time, the SPX hit a new high in the next month. 68% of the time, a new high was reached within three months. One interesting statistic is that after the index pulled back 5%, there was a 65% likelihood of seeing a new high before seeing the pullback reached the correction level of 10%.

但是，明年的回報表現不佳。表的最後一行顯示了在時間範圍內達到新高的時間百分比。因此，有32％的時間，SPX在下個月的新高點。 68％的時間，在三個月內達到了一個新的高點。一個有趣的統計數據是，在索引退回5％之後，看到新高的可能性有65％的可能性，然後看到回調達到10％的校正水平。

This is already the second 5% pullback of 2025. The SPX also experienced a 5% loss from a mid-January high. This made me curious if the second pullback of 5% within a short period meant anything different. The table below summarizes the data following the second pullback within a three-month period. The returns out to six months weren’t much different from the returns after a general 5% pullback.

這已經是2025年的第二個5％回馬。SPX也比1月中旬的高點損失了5％。這讓我很好奇，如果在短時間內第二次回調5％意味著任何不同的東西。下表總結了在三個月內第二個回調之後的數據。返回到六個月的回報與5％的一般回調後的收益並沒有太大不同。

The main difference is in the 12-month return column. In the year after these second 5% pullbacks, there’s more underperformance. The SPX averaged a return of 6.4% over the next year with 63% of the returns positive. The table above shows the typical 12-month return after a pullback was 8.3% with 70% of the returns positive. In the 30 times the SPX had a second 5% pullback within three months, 67% of the time, the index reached a new high before correction territory.

主要區別是在12個月的返回列中。在第二個5％的回調之後的一年，表現不佳。 SPX在明年的平均收益率為6.4％，收益率為63％。上表顯示回調後典型的12個月回報率為8.3％，收益率為70％。在30次，SPX在三個月內獲得了第二個5％的回調，在67％的時間內，該指數在校正領域之前達到了新的高位。

Stocks After 10% Pullbacks

10％回調後的股票

For future reference (and hopefully, not near future), the table below shows how the SPX has performed in the aftermath of a 10% pullback which is often referred to as correction territory. The second table below shows the typical returns for comparison (it’s the same table we saw earlier). Just like with 5% returns, this does not seem to be a tipping point where things get significantly scarier.

為了將來參考（希望不是在不久的將來），下表顯示了SPX在10％回調後的表現，通常稱為校正領域。下表顯示了比較的典型回報（這是我們之前看到的同一表）。就像有5％的回報一樣，這似乎並不是一個變得更加恐怖的轉折點。

Also, just like with the 5% pullback data, the short-term returns tended to outperform compared to normal market returns then the one-year returns slightly underperformed. However, in the case of a 10% pullback, it was basically a coinflip whether you see a new high next or a 20% loss from the high which is considered a recession. Specifically, 15 out of 29 times a new high was reached before the 20% pullback level was reached.

同樣，就像5％的回調數據一樣，與正常的市場收益相比，短期收益往往均優於球員，然後一年的收益略有表現。但是，如果您看到新的高位或高高損失20％的損失，那麼基本上是一個共同融合。具體而言，在達到20％的回調水平之前，達到了29次新高的29倍。