标准普尔500指数（SPX）已经从2月中旬的高高降低了5％

在昨天的关税抛售之前，标准普尔500指数（SPX）已经从2月中旬的历史最高点撤回了5％。

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) suffered a setback yesterday as rising interest rates and the looming threat of a government shutdown sparked selling pressure. This يأتي بعد عام من المكاسب القوية التي دفعت السوق إلى أعلى مستوياته على الإطلاق في وقت سابق من العام. كما أصبحت مساحة الس債券 أكثر صعوبة هذا العام.

标准普尔500指数（SPX）曾遭受挫折，因为利率上升，而Goovernment关闭的迫在眉睫的威胁引发了销售压力。这是一年的强劲收益，将市场推向了今年早些时候的最高水平。债券今年也变得越来越困难。

Before yesterday’s tariff-fueled selloff, the SPX had already pulled back 5% from its mid-February all-time high. Sentiment surveys, such as the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) poll, indicate investors are getting nervous. Is their concern justified? This week, I’m analyzing historical 5% pullbacks to see if it’s a threshold that increases the likelihood of a larger decline. I’m examining pullbacks from a few angles to see if we can gain insights into where we go from here.

在昨天的关税抛售之前，SPX已经从2月中旬的历史最高点撤回了5％。情感调查，例如美国最新的个人投资者协会（AAII）民意调查，表明投资者感到紧张。他们的关注是合理的吗？本周，我正在分析历史5％的回调，以查看这是否是增加较大下降可能性的阈值。我正在从几个角度检查回调，以查看我们是否可以深入了解我们从这里走的地方。

Stocks After 5% Pullbacks

5％回调后的股票

For the data below, I went back to 1950 and found each time the SPX fell 5% after reaching an all-time high. In the 30 days after the initial pullback, the SPX averaged a return of 1.9%, with 74% of the returns positive. The second table shows the typical one month returns since 1950 for the SPX was 0.75%, with 62% of the returns positive. From the table below, it indicates 5% pullbacks have been good short-term buying opportunities.

对于下面的数据，我回到了1950年，发现SPX在达到历史最高水平后每次下跌5％。在最初回调后的30天内，SPX平均收益为1.9％，收益率为74％。第二个表显示，自1950年以来，SPX的典型回报率为0.75％，收益率为62％。从下表中，它表​​明5％的回调是良好的短期购买机会。

However, the returns over the next year, show slight underperformance. The last row of the table shows the percentage of time a new high was reached in the timeframe. So, 32% of the time, the SPX hit a new high in the next month. 68% of the time, a new high was reached within three months. One interesting statistic is that after the index pulled back 5%, there was a 65% likelihood of seeing a new high before seeing the pullback reached the correction level of 10%.

但是，明年的回报表现不佳。表的最后一行显示了在时间范围内达到新高的时间百分比。因此，有32％的时间，SPX在下个月的新高点。 68％的时间，在三个月内达到了一个新的高点。一个有趣的统计数据是，在索引退回5％之后，看到新高的可能性有65％的可能性，然后看到回调达到10％的校正水平。

This is already the second 5% pullback of 2025. The SPX also experienced a 5% loss from a mid-January high. This made me curious if the second pullback of 5% within a short period meant anything different. The table below summarizes the data following the second pullback within a three-month period. The returns out to six months weren’t much different from the returns after a general 5% pullback.

这已经是2025年的第二个5％回马。SPX也比1月中旬的高点损失了5％。这让我很好奇，如果在短时间内第二次回调5％意味着任何不同的东西。下表总结了在三个月内第二个回调之后的数据。返回到六个月的回报与5％的一般回调后的收益并没有太大不同。

The main difference is in the 12-month return column. In the year after these second 5% pullbacks, there’s more underperformance. The SPX averaged a return of 6.4% over the next year with 63% of the returns positive. The table above shows the typical 12-month return after a pullback was 8.3% with 70% of the returns positive. In the 30 times the SPX had a second 5% pullback within three months, 67% of the time, the index reached a new high before correction territory.

主要区别是在12个月的返回列中。在第二个5％的回调之后的一年，表现不佳。 SPX在明年的平均收益率为6.4％，收益率为63％。上表显示回调后典型的12个月回报率为8.3％，收益率为70％。在30次，SPX在三个月内获得了第二个5％的回调，在67％的时间内，该指数在校正领域之前达到了新的高位。

Stocks After 10% Pullbacks

10％回调后的股票

For future reference (and hopefully, not near future), the table below shows how the SPX has performed in the aftermath of a 10% pullback which is often referred to as correction territory. The second table below shows the typical returns for comparison (it’s the same table we saw earlier). Just like with 5% returns, this does not seem to be a tipping point where things get significantly scarier.

为了将来参考（希望不是在不久的将来），下表显示了SPX在10％回调后的表现，通常称为校正领域。下表显示了比较的典型回报（这是我们之前看到的同一表）。就像有5％的回报一样，这似乎并不是一个变得更加恐怖的转折点。

Also, just like with the 5% pullback data, the short-term returns tended to outperform compared to normal market returns then the one-year returns slightly underperformed. However, in the case of a 10% pullback, it was basically a coinflip whether you see a new high next or a 20% loss from the high which is considered a recession. Specifically, 15 out of 29 times a new high was reached before the 20% pullback level was reached.

同样，就像5％的回调数据一样，与正常的市场收益相比，短期收益往往均优于球员，然后一年的收益略有表现。但是，如果您看到新的高位或高高损失20％的损失，那么基本上是一个共同融合。具体而言，在达到20％的回调水平之前，达到了29次新高的29倍。