Solana（Sol）暴跌了50％

輸入：索拉納（Sol）在過去五周中幾乎直線下降了50％

Solana (SOL) has plummeted nearly 50% in almost a straight line over the past five weeks. The sell-off coincides with heightened market volatility, speculative frenzy in memecoins, and looming sell pressure from the upcoming FTX estate unlock.

在過去的五週內，索拉納（Sol）在幾乎一條直線上跌倒了近50％。拋售與市場波動的提高相吻合，在成年人中的投機性瘋狂以及即將到來的FTX房地產Unlock的銷售壓力迫在眉睫。

Crypto asset manager Travis Kling, founder of Ikigai Asset Management, has drawn attention to the broader implications of the sell-off, warning that the once-thriving investment thesis of “owning the casino” may be unraveling in real-time.

Ikigai Asset Management的創始人Crypto Asset經理Travis Kling引起了人們對拋售的更廣泛含義的關注，警告說，“擁有賭場”的投資論文可能會實時拆散。

Solana Is Like ‘A Fentanyl-Laced Casino’

Solana就像是“芬太尼輕賭場”

A significant catalyst behind Solana’s decline is the anticipated March 1 unlock of 11.2 million SOL held by the FTX estate. The event is expected to introduce substantial sell pressure, with market participants speculating that a significant portion of these tokens will be sold via over-the-counter (OTC) transactions at a discount to the time-weighted average price (TWAP).

索拉納（Solana）下降的重大催化劑是預計3月1日，FTX Estate持有的1,120萬輛溶膠。預計該活動將引入巨大的賣出壓力，市場參與者猜測這些代幣中的很大一部分將通過非處方（OTC）交易出售，以與時間加權的平均價格（TWAP）折扣。

“It would not be surprising at all if many of those 11.2 million SOL were going to be sold in bulk via OTC. And that the price for that sale would be calculated as a discount to TWAP, and that TWAP period would be going on right now. So buyers are incentivized for price to be lower,” Kling noted in a recent post on X.

“如果其中許多1,120萬Sol將通過OTC批量出售，這根本就不足為奇了。而且該銷售的價格將被計算為TWAP的折扣，而TWAP期限現在將進行。因此，在最近的X上發表的一篇文章中指出，買家被激勵以使價格降低。

The selling pressure from these unlocks is exacerbated by the fact that buyers of FTX-locked SOL are sitting on unrealized profits despite the recent correction. Many of these holders may now be looking to hedge their positions or take profits in anticipation of increased liquidity.

這些解鎖的銷售壓力加劇了FTX鎖的買家，儘管最近進行了更正，但FTX鎖定的Sol的買家仍處於未實現的利潤。這些持有人中的許多人現在可能正在尋求對沖自己的地位或以增加流動性的利潤。

"This Is Like the 5th TRUMP/MELANIA Token"

“這就像第五個特朗普/梅拉尼亞代幣”

Beyond the FTX overhang, Kling highlighted memecoin speculation as a destabilizing force within Solana’s ecosystem. The timing of SOL’s price peak coincided “EXACTLY with the launch and collapse of TRUMP and MELANIA,” referencing the explosive rise and subsequent implosion of politically-themed memecoins.

除了FTX懸垂之外，克林還強調了Memecoin猜測是Solana生態系統中不穩定的力量。索爾（Sol）價格峰的時機“與特朗普和梅拉尼亞（Melania）的發射和崩潰完全相吻合，指的是爆炸性的上升和隨後以政治為主題的成員的內爆。

Kling further pointed to a series of high-profile memecoin launches—including Central African Republic, Changpeng Zhao’s dog, Dave Portnoy’s token, and the Javier Milei-inspired coin—as evidence of a broader unsustainable frenzy.

克林進一步指出了一系列備受矚目的紀念物發射，包括中非共和國，張趙的狗，戴夫·波特諾伊的代幣和哈維爾·麥利（Javier Milei）啟發的硬幣，這是一個更廣泛的弗朗西（Frenzy）的證據。

“Well, over the last five weeks, we got TRUMP/MELANIA. Then Central African Republic. Then Changpeng’s dog. Then Dave Portnoy. And then the Javier Milei crescendo. So obviously, ridiculously extractive. Pointless. Nihilistic. Embarrassing. All bad. No good.”

“好吧，在過去的五個星期中，我們得到了特朗普/梅拉尼亞。然後是中非共和國。然後轉彭的狗。然後戴夫·波特諾伊（Dave Portnoy）。然後是哈維爾·米利（Javier Milei）漸強。很明顯，荒謬的提取性。無意義。虛無。尷尬。都不好。不好。”

This heightened speculation has led Kling to question whether the long-standing thesis of “owning the casino”—a phrase often used to describe institutional demand for Solana as a high-throughput blockchain catering to speculative trading—remains valid.

這一提高的猜測使克林質疑“擁有賭場”的長期論點是否經常用來描述對Solana的機構需求，作為對投機貿易的高通量區塊鏈迎合的高通用區塊鏈的需求，這是有效的。

For nearly two years, institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals have been pitched the idea that Solana represents the “casino” of crypto, where the bulk of trading activity and on-chain speculation occurs. However, Kling now believes this narrative is undergoing a fundamental shift.

近兩年來，機構​​投資者和高淨值個人一直被認為是Solana代表加密貨幣的“賭場”，其中大部分交易活動和鏈上的投機活動發生。但是，克林現在認為這種敘述正在發生基本轉變。

“So what you may be seeing in real-time is a dismantling and unraveling of this investment thesis to ‘own the casino.’ The casino is too damaging to its customers. The games the casino empowers are quite literally killing the customers.”

“因此，您可能會實時看到的是將本投資論文拆除和揭露給'擁有賭場'。賭場對客戶的破壞性太大了。賭場賦予的遊戲實際上是在殺死客戶。”

He reinforced his analogy with a stark comparison: “Imagine a casino that puts just a pinch of fentanyl in every cocktail. Short term, this looks like a great strategy. Customers can’t stay away! But pretty quickly you start losing customers. Soon, it’s just fent dealers and a few zombies left. Wanna own THAT casino?”

他通過一個鮮明的比較加強了他的比喻：“想像一下一個賭場，每杯雞尾酒都只有一小撮芬太尼。短期，這看起來像是一個很好的策略。客戶不能遠離！但是很快，您開始失去客戶。很快，那隻是芬特的經銷商和幾個殭屍。想擁有那個賭場嗎？”

Despite the current market turbulence, Kling noted a potential bullish catalyst on the horizon: the approval of spot Solana ETFs. While timelines remain uncertain, he suggested that demand for a spot SOL ETF could outstrip that of Ethereum’s (ETH)—at least based on investor sentiment two months ago.

儘管當前市場動盪，但克林（Kling）指出了潛在的看漲催化劑：Spot Solana ETF的批准。儘管時間表仍然不確定，但他建議對現貨Sol ETF的需求可能比以太坊（ETH）的需求超過兩個月前的投資者情緒。

“Spot SOL ETFs should be coming pretty soon. Maybe in the next 1-3 months. Maybe 6. Maybe year-end on the longer side. IDK. But pretty soon.” However, institutional sentiment may now be shifting in real-time. The extent to which the “casino” thesis has eroded, combined with ongoing regulatory uncertainty surrounding Solana-based financial products, could impact the actual demand for a spot ETF once launched.

“現場Sol ETF應該很快到來。也許在接下來的1-3個月中。也許6。也許年終更長。 idk。但是很快。”但是，機構情緒現在可能正在實時轉移。 “賭場”論文侵蝕的程度以及基於Solana的金融產品的持續監管不確定性結合在一起，可能會影響一旦啟動的現貨ETF的實際需求。

At press time, SOL traded at $140.

發稿時，Sol的交易價格為140美元。