比特幣（BTC）從ATH降低20％，但長期看漲視圖仍然完好無損

在他的最新視頻更新中，長期市場分析師和自稱為“四年周期”

Long-time market analyst and self-described “four-year cycle” trader Bob Loukas delivered a new video update where he's breaking down Bitcoin's current price trajectory. Despite a roughly 22% pullback from recent highs, Loukas asserts that the leading cryptocurrency's market action remains "nothing we have not seen before."

長期的市場分析師和自稱為“四年周期”交易員鮑勃·盧卡斯（Bob Loukas）進行了新的視頻更新，他正在破壞比特幣當前的價格軌跡。儘管最近的高點大約有22％的回調，但Loukas斷言，領先的加密貨幣的市場行動仍然“我們以前從未見過”。

Loukas began his latest update by noting that while there's been "a lot of anxiety" among traders following Bitcoin's drop from around $110,000 to the mid-$80,000s, such swings are a natural part of Bitcoin's characteristic volatility.

盧卡斯（Loukas）開始了他的最新更新，並指出，儘管比特幣從$ 110,000下降到中途80,000美元之後，交易員感到“焦慮不安”，但這種波動是比特幣特徵性波動的自然部分。

"As I record this video Bitcoin’s at $87,000, down from an all-time high of around $110,000... which historically, even for this four-year cycle, is basically right on the averages […] a 20% drawdown from a high," Loukas stated.

盧卡斯說：“當我記錄這段視頻比特幣的$ 87,000時，比歷史上的110,000美元的歷史高處低下……這從歷史上看，即使在這個四年的周期中，基本上也是平均水平的[…]高高的20％的縮水。”

Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycles

比特幣的四年周期

While Loukas emphasized that intracycle corrections of this magnitude "should not come necessarily as a major surprise," he also acknowledged the possibility of even deeper drops in the short term. In his assessment, a temporary cascade toward $80,000 or even the mid-$70,000s—which would reflect around a 30% drawdown—is not outside the realm of possibility.

儘管Loukas強調，對這種規模的內部校正“不一定是一個重大驚喜”，但他也承認短期內有更深層次的可能性。在他的評估中，臨時的級聯面向80,000美元甚至70,000美元的中期（反映30％的縮水）不超出可能性的範圍。

"There’s no reason why this current move couldn’t drop all the way down to the low $80,000s. There’s a more outside chance that it could also fall into the $70,000s—maybe $75,000 or $73,000. That’s still within Bitcoin’s historical volatility range."

“沒有理由為什麼這一目前的舉動無法一直降至80,000美元的低價。外部機會也可能落入70,000美元的外部機會，也許是75,000美元或73,000美元。這仍然在比特幣的歷史波動範圍內。”

According to Loukas, these corrective moves are simply a routine "fear reset," with late buyers in the previous upswing typically capitulating during such pullbacks. However, in the context of Bitcoin's broader uptrend, these phases have historically paved the way for fresh rallies.

根據盧卡斯（Loukas）的說法，這些糾正措施只是例行的“恐懼重置”，在以前的上升中，已故的買家通常在這種回調期間會引起傾銷。但是，在比特幣更廣泛的上升趨勢的背景下，這些階段歷史上為新鮮的集會鋪平了道路。

Loukas primarily frames his analysis around a four-year cycle, which he subdivides into shorter "weekly cycles" of roughly six months each. Each weekly cycle, he says, typically trends upwards for two-thirds of its duration and then downwards for the remainder, resetting sentiment. And despite the current pullback unsettling many traders, Loukas sees it aligning with Bitcoin's longstanding cyclical pattern.

盧卡斯（Loukas）主要將他的分析構成了一個四年的周期，他將其分為大約六個月的“每週週期”。他說，每個每週的周期通常趨向於其持續時間的三分之二，然後下降到其餘的重置情緒。儘管目前有許多交易者的回調令人不安，但Loukas仍然看到它與比特幣的長期週期性模式保持一致。

"Unless you believe that the four-year cycle has peaked—which I do not—I see this as one of the normal, oscillating weekly cycle declines. It’s the same E and flow we’ve witnessed so many times."

“除非您認為四年周期已經達到頂峰（我不這樣做），我認為這是正常的，振蕩的每週週期的降低之一。這是我們見證了很多次的E和流動。”

Loukas revealed that his first sale target for the model portfolio is around $153,000 per Bitcoin, depending on where this current decline bottoms. From the mid-$80,000s, his baseline scenario anticipates a potential 80% upward move during the next multi-week upswing. He emphasized that this number may be revised depending on how low Bitcoin drops during the present correction.

盧卡斯（Loukas）透露，他對模型投資組合的第一個銷售目標約為每比特幣153,000美元，具體取決於目前的下降速度。從80,000美元的中期開始，他的基線場景預計在下一個多周上升的情況下，潛在的80％向上移動。他強調，根據本校正期間比特幣的下降程度，可以修改此數字。

Crucially, Loukas noted the possibility of the top being in if the next rebound falters in a pattern known as a "failed weekly cycle." He explained that once Bitcoin establishes a new short-term low—potentially around $80,000 or the mid-$70,000s—the market's next test will be its recovery. If that bounce fails to pierce the prior high near $110,000 and subsequently breaches the newly established low, it would signal deeper downside:

至關重要的是，盧卡斯（Loukas）指出，如果下一個反彈以“每週循環失敗”的模式搖擺不定，則最高的可能性是最高的。他解釋說，一旦比特幣建立了一個新的短期低點（約佔80,000美元或70,000美元）的新短期低點，市場的下一個測試將是其恢復。如果這種反彈未能刺穿以前的高處接近110,000美元，並隨後違反了新成立的低點，它將標誌著更深的下降：

"If we see a sharp countertrend move that rolls over quickly, takes out the new weekly cycle low, that’s extremely concerning. It would indicate a change in trend and possibly that the four-year cycle has already peaked."

“如果我們看到迅速迅速滾動的急劇趨勢移動，將新的每週週期降低，那將是非常令人擔憂的。這將表明趨勢發生變化，並且可能已經達到了四年的周期已經達到頂峰。”

The Decoupling Of Bitcoin And Altcoins

比特幣和山寨幣的脫鉤

While Loukas briefly touched upon the altcoin market, he highlighted how this cycle seems to be diverging from past altcoin frenzies. Loukas described a "significant decoupling" of Bitcoin from other digital assets, observing the lack of sustained retail or institutional interest in most alternative tokens: "There isn't a retail case, there isn't a retail flow... so many (altcoin) narratives have come and gone... It looks as if the Trump coin was the top of that, which is probably not surprising in hindsight."

儘管Loukas短暫涉及Altcoin市場，但他強調了這個週期似乎與過去的Altcoin Frenzies有何不同。盧卡斯（Loukas）描述了比特幣與其他數字資產的“重大脫鉤”，觀察到在大多數替代令牌中缺乏持續的零售或機構興趣：“沒有零售案例，沒有零售案例，沒有零售的流量……太多（altcoin）的敘述已經來去了……好像特朗普硬幣看起來好像是那樣的頂部，這可能是令人驚訝的，這可能令人驚訝。”

However, he maintains that Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a distinct, more mature asset class, capturing interest from pension funds, sovereign wealth managers, and institutions well outside the traditional "crypto" sphere.

但是，他堅持認為，比特幣越來越被視為一個獨特的，更成熟的資產類別，從養老基金，主權財富管理人員和機構中獲得了興趣，遠遠超出了傳統的“加密”領域。

According to Loukas, Bitcoin's monthly chart doesn't show any clear signs of a cycle top. He remains convinced the market hasn't fully played out the final leg of its historical four-year bull trend, which, in previous cycles, culminated roughly 35

根據Loukas的說法，比特幣的每月圖表沒有顯示出週期頂部的明確跡象。他仍然堅信，市場尚未完全播放其歷史四年的公牛趨勢的最後一站，在先前的周期中，大約35