比特币（BTC）从ATH降低20％，但长期看涨视图仍然完好无损

在他的最新视频更新中，长期市场分析师和自称为“四年周期”

Long-time market analyst and self-described “four-year cycle” trader Bob Loukas delivered a new video update where he's breaking down Bitcoin's current price trajectory. Despite a roughly 22% pullback from recent highs, Loukas asserts that the leading cryptocurrency's market action remains "nothing we have not seen before."

长期的市场分析师和自称为“四年周期”交易员鲍勃·卢卡斯（Bob Loukas）进行了新的视频更新，他正在破坏比特币当前的价格轨迹。尽管最近的高点大约有22％的回调，但Loukas断言，领先的加密货币的市场行动仍然“我们以前从未见过”。

Loukas began his latest update by noting that while there's been "a lot of anxiety" among traders following Bitcoin's drop from around $110,000 to the mid-$80,000s, such swings are a natural part of Bitcoin's characteristic volatility.

卢卡斯（Loukas）开始了他的最新更新，并指出，尽管比特币从$ 110,000下降到中途80,000美元之后，交易员感到“焦虑不安”，但这种波动是比特币特征性波动的自然部分。

"As I record this video Bitcoin’s at $87,000, down from an all-time high of around $110,000... which historically, even for this four-year cycle, is basically right on the averages […] a 20% drawdown from a high," Loukas stated.

卢卡斯说：“当我记录这段视频比特币的$ 87,000时，比历史上的110,000美元的历史高处低下……这从历史上看，即使在这个四年的周期中，基本上也是平均水平的[…]高高的20％的缩水。”

Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycles

比特币的四年周期

While Loukas emphasized that intracycle corrections of this magnitude "should not come necessarily as a major surprise," he also acknowledged the possibility of even deeper drops in the short term. In his assessment, a temporary cascade toward $80,000 or even the mid-$70,000s—which would reflect around a 30% drawdown—is not outside the realm of possibility.

尽管Loukas强调，对这种规模的内部校正“不一定是一个重大惊喜”，但他也承认短期内有更深层次的可能性。在他的评估中，临时的级联面向80,000美元甚至70,000美元的中期（反映30％的缩水）不超出可能性的范围。

"There’s no reason why this current move couldn’t drop all the way down to the low $80,000s. There’s a more outside chance that it could also fall into the $70,000s—maybe $75,000 or $73,000. That’s still within Bitcoin’s historical volatility range."

“没有理由为什么这一目前的举动无法一直降至80,000美元的低价。外部机会也可能落入70,000美元的外部机会，也许是75,000美元或73,000美元。这仍然在比特币的历史波动范围内。”

According to Loukas, these corrective moves are simply a routine "fear reset," with late buyers in the previous upswing typically capitulating during such pullbacks. However, in the context of Bitcoin's broader uptrend, these phases have historically paved the way for fresh rallies.

根据卢卡斯（Loukas）的说法，这些纠正措施只是例行的“恐惧重置”，在以前的上升中，已故的买家通常在这种回调期间会引起倾销。但是，在比特币更广泛的上升趋势的背景下，这些阶段历史上为新鲜的集会铺平了道路。

Loukas primarily frames his analysis around a four-year cycle, which he subdivides into shorter "weekly cycles" of roughly six months each. Each weekly cycle, he says, typically trends upwards for two-thirds of its duration and then downwards for the remainder, resetting sentiment. And despite the current pullback unsettling many traders, Loukas sees it aligning with Bitcoin's longstanding cyclical pattern.

卢卡斯（Loukas）主要将他的分析构成了一个四年的周期，他将其分为大约六个月的“每周周期”。他说，每个每周的周期通常趋向于其持续时间的三分之二，然后下降到其余的重置情绪。尽管目前有许多交易者的回调令人不安，但Loukas仍然看到它与比特币的长期周期性模式保持一致。

"Unless you believe that the four-year cycle has peaked—which I do not—I see this as one of the normal, oscillating weekly cycle declines. It’s the same E and flow we’ve witnessed so many times."

“除非您认为四年周期已经达到顶峰（我不这样做），我认为这是正常的，振荡的每周周期的降低之一。这是我们见证了很多次的E和流动。”

Loukas revealed that his first sale target for the model portfolio is around $153,000 per Bitcoin, depending on where this current decline bottoms. From the mid-$80,000s, his baseline scenario anticipates a potential 80% upward move during the next multi-week upswing. He emphasized that this number may be revised depending on how low Bitcoin drops during the present correction.

卢卡斯（Loukas）透露，他对模型投资组合的第一个销售目标约为每比特币153,000美元，具体取决于目前的下降速度。从80,000美元的中期开始，他的基线场景预计在下一个多周上升的情况下，潜在的80％向上移动。他强调，根据本校正期间比特币的下降程度，可以修改此数字。

Crucially, Loukas noted the possibility of the top being in if the next rebound falters in a pattern known as a "failed weekly cycle." He explained that once Bitcoin establishes a new short-term low—potentially around $80,000 or the mid-$70,000s—the market's next test will be its recovery. If that bounce fails to pierce the prior high near $110,000 and subsequently breaches the newly established low, it would signal deeper downside:

至关重要的是，卢卡斯（Loukas）指出，如果下一个反弹以“每周循环失败”的模式摇摆不定，则最高的可能性是最高的。他解释说，一旦比特币建立了一个新的短期低点（约占80,000美元或70,000美元）的新短期低点，市场的下一个测试将是其恢复。如果这种反弹未能刺穿以前的高处接近110,000美元，并随后违反了新成立的低点，它将标志着更深的下降：

"If we see a sharp countertrend move that rolls over quickly, takes out the new weekly cycle low, that’s extremely concerning. It would indicate a change in trend and possibly that the four-year cycle has already peaked."

“如果我们看到迅速迅速滚动的急剧趋势移动，将新的每周周期降低，那将是非常令人担忧的。这将表明趋势发生变化，并且可能已经达到了四年的周期已经达到顶峰。”

The Decoupling Of Bitcoin And Altcoins

比特币和山寨币的脱钩

While Loukas briefly touched upon the altcoin market, he highlighted how this cycle seems to be diverging from past altcoin frenzies. Loukas described a "significant decoupling" of Bitcoin from other digital assets, observing the lack of sustained retail or institutional interest in most alternative tokens: "There isn't a retail case, there isn't a retail flow... so many (altcoin) narratives have come and gone... It looks as if the Trump coin was the top of that, which is probably not surprising in hindsight."

尽管Loukas短暂涉及Altcoin市场，但他强调了这个周期似乎与过去的Altcoin Frenzies有何不同。卢卡斯（Loukas）描述了比特币与其他数字资产的“重大脱钩”，观察到在大多数替代令牌中缺乏持续的零售或机构兴趣：“没有零售案例，没有零售案例，没有零售的流量……太多（altcoin）的叙述已经来去了……好像特朗普硬币看起来好像是那样的顶部，这可能是令人惊讶的，这可能令人惊讶。”

However, he maintains that Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a distinct, more mature asset class, capturing interest from pension funds, sovereign wealth managers, and institutions well outside the traditional "crypto" sphere.

但是，他坚持认为，比特币越来越被视为一个独特的，更成熟的资产类别，从养老基金，主权财富管理人员和机构中获得了兴趣，远远超出了传统的“加密”领域。

According to Loukas, Bitcoin's monthly chart doesn't show any clear signs of a cycle top. He remains convinced the market hasn't fully played out the final leg of its historical four-year bull trend, which, in previous cycles, culminated roughly 35

根据Loukas的说法，比特币的每月图表没有显示出周期顶部的明确迹象。他仍然坚信，市场尚未完全播放其历史四年的公牛趋势的最后一站，在先前的周期中，大约35