Solana（Sol）暴跌了50％

输入：索拉纳（Sol）在过去五周中几乎直线下降了50％

Solana (SOL) has plummeted nearly 50% in almost a straight line over the past five weeks. The sell-off coincides with heightened market volatility, speculative frenzy in memecoins, and looming sell pressure from the upcoming FTX estate unlock.

在过去的五周内，索拉纳（Sol）在几乎一条直线上跌倒了近50％。抛售与市场波动的提高相吻合，在成年人中的投机性疯狂以及即将到来的FTX房地产Unlock的销售压力迫在眉睫。

Crypto asset manager Travis Kling, founder of Ikigai Asset Management, has drawn attention to the broader implications of the sell-off, warning that the once-thriving investment thesis of “owning the casino” may be unraveling in real-time.

Ikigai Asset Management的创始人Crypto Asset经理Travis Kling引起了人们对抛售的更广泛含义的关注，警告说，“拥有赌场”的投资论文可能会实时拆散。

Solana Is Like ‘A Fentanyl-Laced Casino’

Solana就像是“芬太尼轻赌场”

A significant catalyst behind Solana’s decline is the anticipated March 1 unlock of 11.2 million SOL held by the FTX estate. The event is expected to introduce substantial sell pressure, with market participants speculating that a significant portion of these tokens will be sold via over-the-counter (OTC) transactions at a discount to the time-weighted average price (TWAP).

索拉纳（Solana）下降的重大催化剂是预计3月1日，FTX Estate持有的1,120万辆溶胶。预计该活动将引入巨大的卖出压力，市场参与者猜测这些代币中的很大一部分将通过非处方（OTC）交易出售，以与时间加权的平均价格（TWAP）折扣。

“It would not be surprising at all if many of those 11.2 million SOL were going to be sold in bulk via OTC. And that the price for that sale would be calculated as a discount to TWAP, and that TWAP period would be going on right now. So buyers are incentivized for price to be lower,” Kling noted in a recent post on X.

“如果有1120万辆溶胶中的许多人将通过OTC批量出售，这根本就不足为奇了。而且该销售的价格将被计算为TWAP的折扣，而TWAP期限现在将进行。因此，在最近的X上发表的一篇文章中指出，买家被激励以使价格降低。

The selling pressure from these unlocks is exacerbated by the fact that buyers of FTX-locked SOL are sitting on unrealized profits despite the recent correction. Many of these holders may now be looking to hedge their positions or take profits in anticipation of increased liquidity.

这些解锁的销售压力加剧了FTX锁的买家，尽管最近进行了更正，但FTX锁定的Sol的买家仍处于未实现的利润。这些持有人中的许多人现在可能正在寻求对冲自己的地位或以增加流动性的利润。

"This Is Like the 5th TRUMP/MELANIA Token"

“这就像第五个特朗普/梅拉尼亚代币”

Beyond the FTX overhang, Kling highlighted memecoin speculation as a destabilizing force within Solana’s ecosystem. The timing of SOL’s price peak coincided “EXACTLY with the launch and collapse of TRUMP and MELANIA,” referencing the explosive rise and subsequent implosion of politically-themed memecoins.

除了FTX悬垂之外，克林还强调了Memecoin猜测是Solana生态系统中不稳定的力量。索尔（Sol）价格峰的时机“与特朗普和梅拉尼亚（Melania）的发射和崩溃完全相吻合，指的是爆炸性的上升和随后以政治为主题的成员的内爆。

Kling further pointed to a series of high-profile memecoin launches—including Central African Republic, Changpeng Zhao’s dog, Dave Portnoy’s token, and the Javier Milei-inspired coin—as evidence of a broader unsustainable frenzy.

克林进一步指出了一系列备受瞩目的纪念物发射，包括中非共和国，张赵的狗，戴夫·波特诺伊的代币和哈维尔·麦利（Javier Milei）启发的硬币，这是一个更广泛的弗朗西（Frenzy）的证据。

“Well, over the last five weeks, we got TRUMP/MELANIA. Then Central African Republic. Then Changpeng’s dog. Then Dave Portnoy. And then the Javier Milei crescendo. So obviously, ridiculously extractive. Pointless. Nihilistic. Embarrassing. All bad. No good.”

“好吧，在过去的五个星期中，我们得到了特朗普/梅拉尼亚。然后是中非共和国。然后转彭的狗。然后戴夫·波特诺伊（Dave Portnoy）。然后是哈维尔·米利（Javier Milei）渐强。很明显，荒谬的提取性。无意义。虚无。尴尬。都不好。不好。”

This heightened speculation has led Kling to question whether the long-standing thesis of “owning the casino”—a phrase often used to describe institutional demand for Solana as a high-throughput blockchain catering to speculative trading—remains valid.

这一提高的猜测使克林质疑“拥有赌场”的长期论点是否经常用来描述对Solana的机构需求，作为对投机贸易的高通量区块链迎合的高通用区块链的需求，这是有效的。

For nearly two years, institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals have been pitched the idea that Solana represents the “casino” of crypto, where the bulk of trading activity and on-chain speculation occurs. However, Kling now believes this narrative is undergoing a fundamental shift.

近两年来，机构​​投资者和高净值个人一直被认为是Solana代表加密货币的“赌场”，其中大部分交易活动和链上的投机活动发生。但是，克林现在认为这种叙述正在发生基本转变。

“So what you may be seeing in real-time is a dismantling and unraveling of this investment thesis to ‘own the casino.’ The casino is too damaging to its customers. The games the casino empowers are quite literally killing the customers.”

“因此，您可能会实时看到的是将本投资论文拆除和揭露给'拥有赌场'。赌场对客户的破坏性太大了。赌场赋予的游戏实际上是在杀死客户。”

He reinforced his analogy with a stark comparison: “Imagine a casino that puts just a pinch of fentanyl in every cocktail. Short term, this looks like a great strategy. Customers can’t stay away! But pretty quickly you start losing customers. Soon, it’s just fent dealers and a few zombies left. Wanna own THAT casino?”

他通过一个鲜明的比较加强了他的比喻：“想象一下一个赌场，每杯鸡尾酒都只有一小撮芬太尼。短期，这看起来像是一个很好的策略。客户不能远离！但是很快，您开始失去客户。很快，那只是芬特的经销商和几个僵尸。想拥有那个赌场吗？”

Despite the current market turbulence, Kling noted a potential bullish catalyst on the horizon: the approval of spot Solana ETFs. While timelines remain uncertain, he suggested that demand for a spot SOL ETF could outstrip that of Ethereum’s (ETH)—at least based on investor sentiment two months ago.

尽管当前市场动荡，但克林（Kling）指出了潜在的看涨催化剂：Spot Solana ETF的批准。尽管时间表仍然不确定，但他建议对现货Sol ETF的需求可能比以太坊（ETH）的需求超过两个月前的投资者情绪。

“Spot SOL ETFs should be coming pretty soon. Maybe in the next 1-3 months. Maybe 6. Maybe year-end on the longer side. IDK. But pretty soon.” However, institutional sentiment may now be shifting in real-time. The extent to which the “casino” thesis has eroded, combined with ongoing regulatory uncertainty surrounding Solana-based financial products, could impact the actual demand for a spot ETF once launched.

“现场Sol ETF应该很快到来。也许在接下来的1-3个月中。也许6。也许年终更长。 idk。但是很快。”但是，机构情绪现在可能正在实时转移。 “赌场”论文侵蚀的程度以及基于Solana的金融产品的持续监管不确定性结合在一起，可能会影响一旦启动的现货ETF的实际需求。

At press time, SOL traded at $140.

发稿时，Sol的交易价格为140美元。