SOL (Solana) 價格分析與市場前景：儘管漲幅不大，但鏈上和衍生性商品數據顯示 SOL 仍具有巨大的上漲潛力

Solana 的原生代幣 SOL 為 243.91 美元，自 11 月 26 日跌至 222 美元以來，已飆升 8%。

Solana's ( SOL ) native token has largely remained stagnant over the past week, surging 8% compared to a 12% gain in the broader altcoin market capitalization. However, onchain and derivatives data suggest that SOL still holds significant upside potential.

Solana (SOL) 的原生代幣在過去一周基本上保持停滯狀態，與更廣泛的山寨幣市值 12% 的漲幅相比，飆升 8%。然而，鏈上和衍生性商品數據表明 SOL 仍然具有巨大的上漲潛力。

Despite the recent price appreciation, some investors have expressed skepticism due to SOL's modest gain and the sharp correction from its all-time high of $263.80 on Nov. 23.

儘管最近價格上漲，但由於 SOL 的漲幅不大，且較 11 月 23 日創下的歷史高點 263.80 美元大幅回調，一些投資者仍對此表示懷疑。

However, zooming out to a broader time frame reveals that Solana has solidified its position as the second-largest programmable blockchain by developer activity and user engagement, a remarkable feat considering the competitive nature of the Web3 landscape.

然而，從更廣泛的時間範圍來看，Solana 透過開發者活動和用戶參與度鞏固了其作為第二大可編程區塊鏈的地位，考慮到Web3 格局的競爭性質，這是一項了不起的壯舉。

Further bolstering this growth, Solana's total value locked soared by an impressive 48% in the 30 days leading up to Nov. 27.

截至 11 月 27 日的 30 天內，Solana 的鎖定總價值飆升了 48%，進一步推動了這一成長。

To put this into perspective, deposits on the BNB Chain increased by a more modest 14% over the same 30-day period, while Tron network's total value locked grew by a relatively smaller 13%.

從這個角度來看，BNB 鏈上的存款在同一 30 天內增加了 14%，而 Tron 網路的鎖定總價值相對較小，成長了 13%。

Solana's standout performers include the Jito liquid staking solution at $3.4 billion (+44%), the Jupiter decentralized exchange at $2.4 billion (+50%), and Raydium at $2.2 billion (+58%). This surge in deposits is largely attributed to the growing demand for SOL, spurred by Solana's expanding decentralized application ecosystem.

Solana 表現出色的包括Jito 流動性質押解決方案，價值34 億美元（+44%），Jupiter 去中心化交易所，價值24 億美元（+50%），以及Raydium，價值22 億美元（+58% ）。存款激增很大程度上歸因於 Solana 不斷擴大的去中心化應用生態系統刺激了對 SOL 的需求不斷增長。

While some analysts suggest that SOL competes with Ether ( ETH ), data indicates that both networks can grow independently. Onchain activity on Ethereum increased by 47% in the last 30 days, according to DappRadar. Uniswap volumes on Ethereum surged by 62% during the period, while CoW Swap recorded a gain of 71% over the same duration.

雖然一些分析師認為 SOL 與以太坊 (ETH) 存在競爭，但數據表明這兩個網路都可以獨立發展。根據 DappRadar 的數據，過去 30 天內以太坊的鏈上活動增加了 47%。在此期間，以太坊上的 Uniswap 交易量飆升了 62%，而 CoW Swap 同期成長了 71%。

While Solana dominates memecoin launches and trading, Ethereum maintains its edge as the network of choice for decentralized finance opportunities. Notably, three of the top five highest-grossing DApps belong to Solana — Raydium, Jito, and Pump.fun — outperforming Lido, Unispec, and Aave in this metric.

雖然 Solana 主導著 memecoin 的發行和交易，但以太坊仍然保持著作為去中心化金融機會的首選網路的優勢。值得注意的是，收入最高的前 5 個 DApp 中的 3 個屬於 Solana——Raydium、Jito 和 Pump.fun——在這個指標上表現優於 Lido、Unispec 和 Aave。

Solana and Ethereum can grow independently without directly competing for the same user base. However, Solana's greater reliance on memecoins introduces more risk, as the speculative frenzy surrounding tokens like BONK, POPCAT, MEW, and SPX6900 — some of which surged over 100% in three months — may not be sustainable in the long term.

Solana 和以太坊可以獨立發展，無需直接競爭同一用戶群。然而，Solana 對memecoin 的更大依賴帶來了更多風險，因為圍繞BONK、POPCAT、MEW 和SPX6900 等代幣的投機狂潮（其中一些代幣在三個月內飆升超過100%）從長遠來看可能無法持續。

To assess whether traders have shifted sentiment on SOL following the 10% decline between Nov. 23 and Nov. 27, the futures premium provides valuable insight. In stable markets, monthly futures typically trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium over spot prices to account for the time value of money and the cost of carry. This premium usually turns negative in bear markets or during periods of extreme fear.

為了評估交易者對 SOL 在 11 月 23 日至 27 日期間下跌 10% 後的情緒是否發生了轉變，期貨溢價提供了寶貴的見解。在穩定的市場中，考慮到貨幣時間價值和持有成本，月期貨的交易價格通常比現貨價格高出 5% 至 10%。在熊市或極度恐懼時期，這種溢價通常會變成負數。

Currently, SOL futures indicate traders are paying an annualized 23% premium to maintain long (buy) positions, marking the highest level in seven months. While this suggests optimism, excessive bullishness can push this metric above 40%, increasing the risk of cascading liquidations during unexpected price corrections.

目前，SOL 期貨顯示交易者需要支付 23% 的年化溢價來維持多頭（買入）頭寸，創下七個月以來的最高水準。雖然這表明樂觀情緒，但過度看漲可能會使該指標超過 40%，從而增加意外價格調整期間出現級聯清算的風險。

Based on Solana's onchain activity and derivatives market data, further price appreciation appears likely. At its current $113.7 billion market capitalization, SOL trades at a hefty 73% discount compared to Ethereum's $429.4 billion, indicating significant room for growth.

根據 Solana 的鏈上活動和衍生性商品市場數據，價格可能會進一步上漲。目前 SOL 的市值為 1,137 億美元，與以太坊的 4,294 億美元相比，其交易價格大幅折扣 73%，這表明其成長空間巨大。