SOL vs. ETH：Solana 真的能超越以太坊嗎？

阿多，《DeFi 報告》創辦人

Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) has been on a tear this cycle, with its native token, SOL, hitting a record high of $264 USDT. In comparison, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) seems to be lagging behind. Moreover, Solana's market cap has increased from 17% to nearly 30% of Ethereum's over the past few months. Since hitting a low in December 2022, SOL has seen an astonishing 25-fold increase, while ETH has only risen 1.7 times. Is Ethereum lacking momentum, or has it yet to show its strength? This has become a question worth exploring.

Solana（加密貨幣：SOL）在本週期中表現強勁，其原生代幣 SOL 創下了 264 USDT 的歷史新高。相比之下，以太坊（CRYPTO：ETH）似乎落後了。此外，過去幾個月，Solana 的市值已從以太坊的 17% 增加到近 30%。自2022年12月觸及低點以來，SOL已經實現了驚人的25倍漲幅，而ETH僅上漲了1.7倍。以太坊是缺乏動力，還是尚未展現實力？這已經成為一個值得探討的問題。

Based on data, market sentiment, cognition and narrative, this article will analyze whether Solana has a chance to surpass Ethereum, and what catalysts Ethereum has to drive prices up?

本文將基於數據、市場情緒、認知和敘事，分析Solana是否有機會超越以太坊，以及以太坊有哪些催化劑推動價格上漲？

Looking back to January 2023, Solana's market cap was only 3% of Ethereum's, and the gap between the two seemed insurmountable. However, as of July this year, the gap has narrowed significantly, and Solana's market cap has climbed to 17% of Ethereum's. At the time, we wrote: “Should SOL’s market cap be 83% lower than ETH?” The fundamental data gave a negative answer.

回顧 2023 年 1 月，Solana 的市值僅為以太坊的 3%，兩者之間的差距似乎難以克服。然而，截至今年 7 月，差距已明顯縮小，Solana 的市值已攀升至以太坊的 17%。當時，我們寫道：“SOL 的市值應該比 ETH 低 83% 嗎？”基本面數據給了否定的答案。

Since then, the market has re-evaluated SOL, and its market value has soared to nearly 30% of Ethereum's market value. Faced with this change, I can't help but ask this question again: Should SOL's market value be 70% lower than ETH?

此後，市場重新評估SOL，其市值飆升至以太坊市值的近30%。面對這種變化，我不禁再次問這個問題：SOL的市值是否應該比ETH低70%？

Are markets still in disarray? Let’s take a closer look.

市場仍處於混亂狀態嗎？讓我們仔細看看。

When comparing Solana’s data with Ethereum’s, we particularly noticed an important variable - the second-layer networks (L2s): Arbitrum, Base, Optimism, Blast, Celo, Linea, Mantle, Scroll, Starknet, zkSync, Immutable, and Manta Pacific.

在將Solana 的數據與以太坊的數據進行比較時，我們特別注意到一個重要的變數- 第二層網路（L2）：Arbitrum、Base、Optimism、Blast、Celo、Linea、Mantle、Scroll、Starknet、zkSync 、Immutable 和Manta Pacific。

Our view is that these L2s not only create new demand for Ethereum L1 blockspace, but also further enhance the network effect of ETH as a core asset. Therefore, taking these L2s into account when comparing Solana to Ethereum can provide a more comprehensive and in-depth perspective.

我們認為，這些L2不僅為以太坊L1區塊空間創造了新的需求，也進一步增強了ETH作為核心資產的網路效應。因此，在將 Solana 與以太坊進行比較時考慮到這些 L2 可以提供更全面、更深入的視角。

Solana’s fee revenue reached $151 million in Q2 2024, accounting for approximately 27% of the total fee revenue of Ethereum and top L2s.

Solana 的手續費收入在 2024 年第二季達到 1.51 億美元，約佔以太坊和頂級 L2 總手續費收入的 27%。

Over the past 90 days, Solana has generated $192M in fee revenue, which is approximately 49% of the total fee revenue for Ethereum ($374M) and top L2s ($21M).

在過去 90 天裡，Solana 產生了 1.92 億美元的費用收入，約佔以太坊（3.74 億美元）和頂級 L2（2,100 萬美元）總費用收入的 49%。

Please note that the above fees only include Gas fees and do not include MEV (Maximum Extractable Value) fees.

請注意，上述費用僅包括 Gas 費，不包括 MEV（最大可提取價值）費用。

Solana’s DEX trading volume reached $108 billion in the second quarter, accounting for approximately 36% of Ethereum and top L2s trading volume.

Solana 第二季的 DEX 交易量達到 1,080 億美元，約佔以太坊和頂級 L2 交易量的 36%。

Over the past 90 days, Solana’s DEX volume has increased to $153 billion, accounting for approximately 57% of Ethereum’s ($125.5 billion) and top L2s’ ($145 billion) volume.

在過去 90 天裡，Solana 的 DEX 交易量已增至 1,530 億美元，約佔以太坊（1,255 億美元）和頂級 L2（1,450 億美元）交易量的 57%。

Solana’s stablecoin supply was approximately $3.1 billion in July 2024, accounting for approximately 3.5% of Ethereum and L2s stablecoin supply.

2024 年 7 月，Solana 的穩定幣供應量約 31 億美元，約佔以太幣和 L2s 穩定幣供應量的 3.5%。

Currently, its stablecoin supply has reached 4.3 billion US dollars, accounting for about 4.1% of the Ethereum + L2s stablecoin supply.

目前，其穩定幣供應量已達43億美元，約佔以太坊+L2s穩定幣供應量的4.1%。

Note that Arbitrum’s stablecoin supply exceeds Solana’s, while Base's stablecoin supply is 80% of Solana's.

請注意，Arbitrum 的穩定幣供應量超過了 Solana，而 Base 的穩定幣供應量是 Solana 的 80%。

Solana’s stablecoin trading volume reached $4.7 trillion in the second quarter, 1.9 times the trading volume of Ethereum and top L2s.

Solana 在第二季穩定幣交易量達到 4.7 兆美元，是以太坊和頂級 L2 交易量的 1.9 倍。

Over the past 90 days, Solana’s stablecoin volume has fallen to $963 billion — roughly 30% of Ethereum’s ($1.9 trillion) and top L2s’ ($1.26 trillion) volume.

在過去 90 天裡，Solana 的穩定幣交易量已降至 9,630 億美元，大約是以太坊（1.9 兆美元）和頂級 L2（1.26 兆美元）交易量的 30%。

Why has Solana’s transaction volume dropped?

為什麼 Solana 的交易量下降了？

We believe Solana’s volume growth in Q2 was primarily driven by wash trading and robotic/algorithmic trading.

我們認為 Solana 第二季的交易量成長主要是由清洗交易和機器人/演算法交易推動的。

And according to Artemis data, only about 6% of Solana’s stablecoin transaction volume is peer-to-peer transfers. However, on Ethereum L1, this figure is close to 30%, indicating that Ethereum is used for non-speculative activities to a much greater extent than Solana.

而且根據 Artemis 數據，Solana 的穩定幣交易量中只有約 6% 是點對點轉帳。然而，在以太坊 L1 上，這個數字接近 30%，顯示以太坊用於非投機活動的程度比 Solana 大得多。

At the end of Q2, Solana’s TVL was $4.2 billion, about 6.3% of the TVL of Ethereum ($60.3 billion) and top L2s ($9.5 billion).

截至第二季末，Solana 的 TVL 為 42 億美元，約為以太坊 TVL（603 億美元）和頂級 L2（95 億美元）的 6.3%。

Currently

現在