山寨幣季節即將來臨？

在比特幣 (BTC/USDT) 衝擊 10 萬美元失敗並回調至 9 萬美元以上區域後，市場熱議再次嘗試突破 6 位數。

After Bitcoin’s (BTC/USDT) failed attempt to breach the $100K resistance and a subsequent correction to the $90K+ zone, market chatter suggests that the next move could be a collective assault on six figures.

在比特幣 (BTC/USDT) 嘗試突破 10 萬美元阻力位失敗並隨後回調至 9 萬美元以上區域後，市場傳言表明下一步行動可能是對六位數的集體攻擊。

This narrative is further supported by the surging Altcoin Season Index (ASI), which reached 61 on Thanksgiving Day, inching closer to the magical 75+ mark that signals a full-blown altseason. With the potential for a Santa Rally looming, could this Thanksgiving become even sweeter if altcoins steal the spotlight?

飆升的山寨幣季節指數 (ASI) 進一步支持了這一說法，該指數在感恩節當天達到 61，接近神奇的 75+ 大關，標誌著山寨幣季節的全面成熟。隨著聖誕老人集會的臨近，如果山寨幣搶盡風頭，這個感恩節會變得更加甜蜜嗎？

However, before we get carried away, let's not forget the importance of making rational decisions and avoiding emotional biases in the markets. To time this transition properly and ensure a successful altcoin rotation, we turn to three critical charts:

然而，在我們得意忘形之前，我們不要忘記做出理性決策和避免市場情緒偏見的重要性。為了正確掌握這一轉變的時間並確保山寨幣的成功輪換，我們轉向三個關鍵圖表：

Chart 1: BTC Dominance (BTC.D) - Weekly

圖 1：BTC 主導 (BTC.D) - 每週

Bitcoin dominance on the weekly timeframe is at a critical juncture within a rising channel, with three key levels dictating the narrative:

比特幣在每週時間範圍內的主導地位正處於上升通道的關鍵時刻，三個關鍵水平決定了敘述：

BTC.D has been making lower highs since May 2024, indicating weaker Bitcoin performance.

自 2024 年 5 月以來，BTC.D 的高點一直在下降，顯示比特幣表現較弱。

The 40-42 zone has acted as strong support throughout 2024, with any breach opening the door to lower levels.

40-42 區域在 2024 年一直是強有力的支撐，任何突破都會為更低的水平打開大門。

Conversely, a sustained bounce from this support could indicate a continuation of Bitcoin outperformance.

相反，從這種支撐位持續反彈可能表明比特幣將繼續表現出色。

What to Watch:

看什麼：

A sustained BTC.D drop below 40% on increasing volume would signal altcoin strength. Conversely, a strong rebound from this level indicates continued Bitcoin outperformance. Chart 2: ETH/BTC – Daily

隨著交易量的增加，BTC.D 持續跌破 40% 將預示著山寨幣的強勢。相反，從該水平的強勁反彈表明比特幣的表現持續出色。圖 2：ETH/BTC – 每日

Ethereum vs. Bitcoin provides a critical lens into altcoin strength, and the pair has shown signs of life, attempting to break out of a descending channel after months of underperformance. Key observations:

以太坊與比特幣的對比為了解山寨幣的實力提供了一個關鍵的視角，該貨幣對已顯示出生命力的跡象，試圖在幾個月表現不佳後突破下降通道。主要觀察：

ETH/BTC has been trading within this channel since August 2024, with three failed breakout attempts.

自 2024 年 8 月以來，ETH/BTC 一直在該頻道內交易，曾三次嘗試突破失敗。

A recent bullish engulfing candle on high volume could signal a successful breakout.

最近的高成交量看漲吞沒蠟燭可能預示著成功突破。

If the pair sustains above the channel resistance, it could pave the way for further gains.

如果該貨幣對維持在通道阻力之上，則可能為進一步上漲鋪平道路。

What to Watch:

看什麼：

A sustained ETH/BTC close above 0.082-0.083 with increasing momentum would indicate altcoin strength. Conversely, a failure at this level suggests a continuation of Bitcoin outperformance. Chart 3: TOTAL2 – Weekly

ETH/BTC 持續收在 0.082-0.083 以上且勢頭增強將表明山寨幣走強。相反，如果比特幣未能達到這個水平，則表明比特幣將繼續表現出色。圖 3：TOTAL2 – 每週

The TOTAL2 chart, tracking the total market cap of altcoins excluding Bitcoin, is perhaps the cleanest setup of all. It recently broke out of a massive three-year Cup & Handle (C&H) pattern, signaling long-term bullish potential.

TOTAL2 圖表追蹤了除比特幣之外的山寨幣總市值，這可能是所有圖表中最簡潔的。它最近突破了三年期的大規模杯柄（C&H）模式，預示著長期看漲潛力。

After forming the "cup" from May 2022 to March 2023, followed by the "handle" throughout 2024, the breakout occurred in late November.

在2022年5月至2023年3月形成“杯子”，隨後整個2024年形成“手柄”後，突破發生在11月下旬。

This breakout indicates a shift in the macro trend for altcoins, suggesting the potential for a sustained altcoin rally.

這項突破顯示山寨幣宏觀趨勢發生了轉變，顯示山寨幣有持續上漲的潛力。

Why It Matters:

為什麼它很重要：

This setup, combined with weakening Bitcoin dominance and a potential ETH/BTC reversal, could set the stage for a promising altseason. It's like a self-fulfilling prophecy—if everyone expects an altseason, their actions (buying altcoins) will contribute to making it happen.

這種設置，加上比特幣主導地位的削弱和 ETH/BTC 潛在的逆轉，可能會為充滿希望的山寨季奠定基礎。這就像一個自我實現的預言——如果每個人都期待山寨幣季節，他們的行動（購買山寨幣）將有助於實現它。

Conclusion: Is Altseason and Santa Rally Incoming?

結論： Altseason 和聖誕老人集會即將到來嗎？

The setup for an altseason looks increasingly promising. BTC dominance flirts with critical support, ETH/BTC eyes a reversal, and TOTAL2 has confirmed a major bullish breakout. Combine these with the potential for a Santa Rally, and the stage could be set for a spectacular finish to 2024.

替代季節的設定看起來越來越有希望。 BTC 的主導地位與關鍵支撐調情，ETH/BTC 出現逆轉，TOTAL2 已確認出現重大看漲突破。將這些與聖誕老人集會的潛力相結合，可以為 2024 年的壯觀收官做好準備。

That said, as the classic trading wisdom goes: "Confirmation is key." Acting on one chart alone is reckless; when all three align, the probabilities for a successful altcoin rotation increase dramatically.

也就是說，正如經典的交易智慧所說：“確認是關鍵。”僅根據一張圖表行事是魯莽的；當這三者一致時，山寨幣成功輪換的可能性就會急劇增加。

For those celebrating Thanksgiving, enjoy the holiday—just don’t overindulge, whether it's on turkey or early altcoin shopping. Stay patient, stay disciplined, and let the charts guide your next moves.

對於那些慶祝感恩節的人來說，享受這個假期——只是不要過度沉迷，無論是購買火雞還是提前購買山寨幣。保持耐心，保持紀律，讓圖表引導您的下一步。