山寨币季节即将来临？

在比特币 (BTC/USDT) 冲击 10 万美元失败并回调至 9 万美元以上区域后，市场热议再次尝试突破 6 位数。

After Bitcoin’s (BTC/USDT) failed attempt to breach the $100K resistance and a subsequent correction to the $90K+ zone, market chatter suggests that the next move could be a collective assault on six figures.

在比特币 (BTC/USDT) 尝试突破 10 万美元阻力位失败并随后回调至 9 万美元以上区域后，市场传言表明下一步行动可能是对六位数的集体攻击。

This narrative is further supported by the surging Altcoin Season Index (ASI), which reached 61 on Thanksgiving Day, inching closer to the magical 75+ mark that signals a full-blown altseason. With the potential for a Santa Rally looming, could this Thanksgiving become even sweeter if altcoins steal the spotlight?

飙升的山寨币季节指数 (ASI) 进一步支持了这一说法，该指数在感恩节当天达到 61，接近神奇的 75+ 大关，标志着山寨币季节的全面成熟。随着圣诞老人集会的临近，如果山寨币抢尽风头，这个感恩节会变得更加甜蜜吗？

However, before we get carried away, let's not forget the importance of making rational decisions and avoiding emotional biases in the markets. To time this transition properly and ensure a successful altcoin rotation, we turn to three critical charts:

然而，在我们得意忘形之前，我们不要忘记做出理性决策和避免市场情绪偏见的重要性。为了正确把握这一转变的时间并确保山寨币的成功轮换，我们转向三个关键图表：

Chart 1: BTC Dominance (BTC.D) - Weekly

图 1：BTC 主导地位 (BTC.D) - 每周

Bitcoin dominance on the weekly timeframe is at a critical juncture within a rising channel, with three key levels dictating the narrative:

比特币在每周时间范围内的主导地位正处于上升通道的关键时刻，三个关键水平决定了叙述：

BTC.D has been making lower highs since May 2024, indicating weaker Bitcoin performance.

自 2024 年 5 月以来，BTC.D 的高点一直在下降，表明比特币表现较弱。

The 40-42 zone has acted as strong support throughout 2024, with any breach opening the door to lower levels.

40-42 区域在 2024 年一直是强有力的支撑，任何突破都会为更低的水平打开大门。

Conversely, a sustained bounce from this support could indicate a continuation of Bitcoin outperformance.

相反，从这种支撑位持续反弹可能表明比特币将继续表现出色。

What to Watch:

看什么：

A sustained BTC.D drop below 40% on increasing volume would signal altcoin strength. Conversely, a strong rebound from this level indicates continued Bitcoin outperformance. Chart 2: ETH/BTC – Daily

随着交易量的增加，BTC.D 持续跌破 40% 将预示着山寨币的强势。相反，从该水平的强劲反弹表明比特币的表现持续出色。图 2：ETH/BTC – 每日

Ethereum vs. Bitcoin provides a critical lens into altcoin strength, and the pair has shown signs of life, attempting to break out of a descending channel after months of underperformance. Key observations:

以太坊与比特币的对比为了解山寨币的实力提供了一个关键的视角，该货币对已显示出生命力的迹象，试图在几个月表现不佳后突破下降通道。主要观察结果：

ETH/BTC has been trading within this channel since August 2024, with three failed breakout attempts.

自 2024 年 8 月以来，ETH/BTC 一直在该通道内交易，曾三次尝试突破失败。

A recent bullish engulfing candle on high volume could signal a successful breakout.

最近的高成交量看涨吞没蜡烛可能预示着成功突破。

If the pair sustains above the channel resistance, it could pave the way for further gains.

如果该货币对维持在通道阻力之上，则可能为进一步上涨铺平道路。

What to Watch:

看什么：

A sustained ETH/BTC close above 0.082-0.083 with increasing momentum would indicate altcoin strength. Conversely, a failure at this level suggests a continuation of Bitcoin outperformance. Chart 3: TOTAL2 – Weekly

ETH/BTC 持续收于 0.082-0.083 以上且势头增强将表明山寨币走强。相反，如果比特币未能达到这个水平，则表明比特币将继续表现出色。图 3：TOTAL2 – 每周

The TOTAL2 chart, tracking the total market cap of altcoins excluding Bitcoin, is perhaps the cleanest setup of all. It recently broke out of a massive three-year Cup & Handle (C&H) pattern, signaling long-term bullish potential.

TOTAL2 图表跟踪了除比特币之外的山寨币总市值，这可能是所有图表中最简洁的。它最近突破了三年期的大规模杯柄（C&H）模式，预示着长期看涨潜力。

After forming the "cup" from May 2022 to March 2023, followed by the "handle" throughout 2024, the breakout occurred in late November.

在2022年5月至2023年3月形成“杯子”，随后整个2024年形成“手柄”后，突破发生在11月下旬。

This breakout indicates a shift in the macro trend for altcoins, suggesting the potential for a sustained altcoin rally.

这一突破表明山寨币宏观趋势发生了转变，表明山寨币有持续上涨的潜力。

Why It Matters:

为什么它很重要：

This setup, combined with weakening Bitcoin dominance and a potential ETH/BTC reversal, could set the stage for a promising altseason. It's like a self-fulfilling prophecy—if everyone expects an altseason, their actions (buying altcoins) will contribute to making it happen.

这种设置，加上比特币主导地位的削弱和 ETH/BTC 潜在的逆转，可能会为充满希望的山寨季奠定基础。这就像一个自我实现的预言——如果每个人都期待山寨币季节，他们的行动（购买山寨币）将有助于实现它。

Conclusion: Is Altseason and Santa Rally Incoming?

结论： Altseason 和圣诞老人​​集会即将到来吗？

The setup for an altseason looks increasingly promising. BTC dominance flirts with critical support, ETH/BTC eyes a reversal, and TOTAL2 has confirmed a major bullish breakout. Combine these with the potential for a Santa Rally, and the stage could be set for a spectacular finish to 2024.

替代季节的设置看起来越来越有希望。 BTC 的主导地位与关键支撑调情，ETH/BTC 出现逆转，TOTAL2 已确认出现重大看涨突破。将这些与圣诞老人集会的潜力相结合，可以为 2024 年的壮观收官做好准备。

That said, as the classic trading wisdom goes: "Confirmation is key." Acting on one chart alone is reckless; when all three align, the probabilities for a successful altcoin rotation increase dramatically.

也就是说，正如经典的交易智慧所说：“确认是关键。”仅根据一张图表行事是鲁莽的；当这三者一致时，山寨币成功轮换的可能性就会急剧增加。

For those celebrating Thanksgiving, enjoy the holiday—just don’t overindulge, whether it's on turkey or early altcoin shopping. Stay patient, stay disciplined, and let the charts guide your next moves.

对于那些庆祝感恩节的人来说，享受这个假期——只是不要过度沉迷，无论是购买火鸡还是提前购买山寨币。保持耐心，保持纪律，让图表指导您的下一步行动。