SOL vs. ETH：Solana 真的能超越以太坊吗？

阿多，《DeFi 报告》创始人

Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) has been on a tear this cycle, with its native token, SOL, hitting a record high of $264 USDT. In comparison, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) seems to be lagging behind. Moreover, Solana's market cap has increased from 17% to nearly 30% of Ethereum's over the past few months. Since hitting a low in December 2022, SOL has seen an astonishing 25-fold increase, while ETH has only risen 1.7 times. Is Ethereum lacking momentum, or has it yet to show its strength? This has become a question worth exploring.

Solana（加密货币：SOL）在本周期中表现强劲，其原生代币 SOL 创下了 264 USDT 的历史新高。相比之下，以太坊（CRYPTO：ETH）似乎落后了。此外，过去几个月，Solana 的市值已从以太坊的 17% 增加到近 30%。自2022年12月触及低点以来​​，SOL已经实现了惊人的25倍涨幅，而ETH仅上涨了1.7倍。以太坊是缺乏动力，还是尚未展现出实力？这已经成为一个值得探讨的问题。

Based on data, market sentiment, cognition and narrative, this article will analyze whether Solana has a chance to surpass Ethereum, and what catalysts Ethereum has to drive prices up?

本文将基于数据、市场情绪、认知和叙事，分析Solana是否有机会超越以太坊，以及以太坊有哪些催化剂推动价格上涨？

Looking back to January 2023, Solana's market cap was only 3% of Ethereum's, and the gap between the two seemed insurmountable. However, as of July this year, the gap has narrowed significantly, and Solana's market cap has climbed to 17% of Ethereum's. At the time, we wrote: “Should SOL’s market cap be 83% lower than ETH?” The fundamental data gave a negative answer.

回顾 2023 年 1 月，Solana 的市值仅为以太坊的 3%，两者之间的差距似乎难以逾越。然而，截至今年 7 月，差距已明显缩小，Solana 的市值已攀升至以太坊的 17%。当时，我们写道：“SOL 的市值应该比 ETH 低 83% 吗？”基本面数据给出了否定的答案。

Since then, the market has re-evaluated SOL, and its market value has soared to nearly 30% of Ethereum's market value. Faced with this change, I can't help but ask this question again: Should SOL's market value be 70% lower than ETH?

此后，市场重新评估SOL，其市值飙升至以太坊市值的近30%。面对这种变化，我不禁再次问这个问题：SOL的市值是否应该比ETH低70%？

Are markets still in disarray? Let’s take a closer look.

市场仍处于混乱状态吗？让我们仔细看看。

When comparing Solana’s data with Ethereum’s, we particularly noticed an important variable - the second-layer networks (L2s): Arbitrum, Base, Optimism, Blast, Celo, Linea, Mantle, Scroll, Starknet, zkSync, Immutable, and Manta Pacific.

在将 Solana 的数据与以太坊的数据进行比较时，我们特别注意到一个重要的变量 - 第二层网络（L2）：Arbitrum、Base、Optimism、Blast、Celo、Linea、Mantle、Scroll、Starknet、zkSync、Immutable 和 Manta Pacific。

Our view is that these L2s not only create new demand for Ethereum L1 blockspace, but also further enhance the network effect of ETH as a core asset. Therefore, taking these L2s into account when comparing Solana to Ethereum can provide a more comprehensive and in-depth perspective.

我们认为，这些L2不仅为以太坊L1区块空间创造了新的需求，而且进一步增强了ETH作为核心资产的网络效应。因此，在将 Solana 与以太坊进行比较时考虑到这些 L2 可以提供更全面、更深入的视角。

Solana’s fee revenue reached $151 million in Q2 2024, accounting for approximately 27% of the total fee revenue of Ethereum and top L2s.

Solana 的手续费收入在 2024 年第二季度达到 1.51 亿美元，约占以太坊和顶级 L2 总手续费收入的 27%。

Over the past 90 days, Solana has generated $192M in fee revenue, which is approximately 49% of the total fee revenue for Ethereum ($374M) and top L2s ($21M).

在过去 90 天里，Solana 产生了 1.92 亿美元的费用收入，约占以太坊（3.74 亿美元）和顶级 L2（2100 万美元）总费用收入的 49%。

Please note that the above fees only include Gas fees and do not include MEV (Maximum Extractable Value) fees.

请注意，上述费用仅包括 Gas 费，不包括 MEV（最大可提取价值）费用。

Solana’s DEX trading volume reached $108 billion in the second quarter, accounting for approximately 36% of Ethereum and top L2s trading volume.

Solana 第二季度的 DEX 交易量达到 1080 亿美元，约占以太坊和顶级 L2 交易量的 36%。

Over the past 90 days, Solana’s DEX volume has increased to $153 billion, accounting for approximately 57% of Ethereum’s ($125.5 billion) and top L2s’ ($145 billion) volume.

在过去 90 天里，Solana 的 DEX 交易量已增至 1530 亿美元，约占以太坊（1255 亿美元）和顶级 L2（1450 亿美元）交易量的 57%。

Solana’s stablecoin supply was approximately $3.1 billion in July 2024, accounting for approximately 3.5% of Ethereum and L2s stablecoin supply.

2024 年 7 月，Solana 的稳定币供应量约为 31 亿美元，约占以太坊和 L2s 稳定币供应量的 3.5%。

Currently, its stablecoin supply has reached 4.3 billion US dollars, accounting for about 4.1% of the Ethereum + L2s stablecoin supply.

目前，其稳定币供应量已达43亿美元，约占以太坊+L2s稳定币供应量的4.1%。

Note that Arbitrum’s stablecoin supply exceeds Solana’s, while Base's stablecoin supply is 80% of Solana's.

请注意，Arbitrum 的稳定币供应量超过了 Solana，而 Base 的稳定币供应量是 Solana 的 80%。

Solana’s stablecoin trading volume reached $4.7 trillion in the second quarter, 1.9 times the trading volume of Ethereum and top L2s.

Solana 第二季度稳定币交易量达到 4.7 万亿美元，是以太坊和顶级 L2 交易量的 1.9 倍。

Over the past 90 days, Solana’s stablecoin volume has fallen to $963 billion — roughly 30% of Ethereum’s ($1.9 trillion) and top L2s’ ($1.26 trillion) volume.

在过去 90 天里，Solana 的稳定币交易量已降至 9630 亿美元，大约是以太坊（1.9 万亿美元）和顶级 L2（1.26 万亿美元）交易量的 30%。

Why has Solana’s transaction volume dropped?

为什么 Solana 的交易量下降了？

We believe Solana’s volume growth in Q2 was primarily driven by wash trading and robotic/algorithmic trading.

我们认为 Solana 第二季度的交易量增长主要是由清洗交易和机器人/算法交易推动的。

And according to Artemis data, only about 6% of Solana’s stablecoin transaction volume is peer-to-peer transfers. However, on Ethereum L1, this figure is close to 30%, indicating that Ethereum is used for non-speculative activities to a much greater extent than Solana.

而且根据 Artemis 数据，Solana 的稳定币交易量中只有约 6% 是点对点转账。然而，在以太坊 L1 上，这个数字接近 30%，表明以太坊用于非投机活动的程度比 Solana 大得多。

At the end of Q2, Solana’s TVL was $4.2 billion, about 6.3% of the TVL of Ethereum ($60.3 billion) and top L2s ($9.5 billion).

截至第二季度末，Solana 的 TVL 为 42 亿美元，约为以太坊 TVL（603 亿美元）和顶级 L2（95 亿美元）的 6.3%。

Currently

现在