Robinhood 和 Coinbase 回歸。這一次，他們將留下來。

兩家公司均於 2021 年初上市，此後一直遵循相似的發展軌跡。衝出大門後，兩家 Coinbase 的股價

Both companies went public in early 2021 and have since followed similar trajectories. After sprinting out of the blocks, the share prices of both Coinbase and Robinhood took nosedives following a series of shifts in the macroeconomy and the scandal-driven implosion of the crypto markets in late 2022. By 2023, both firms were scuffling so badly they lost more than 80% of their value and were forced to implement multiple rounds of layoffs.

兩家公司均於 2021 年初上市，此後一直遵循相似的發展軌跡。在衝出區塊後，隨著宏觀經濟的一系列變化以及2022 年底醜聞引發的加密貨幣市場崩潰，Coinbase 和Robinhood 的股價都出現了暴跌。最後都輸了其價值超過80%，被迫實施多輪裁員。

But the story has since changed dramatically. In the final hours of 2024, Coinbase shares were up around 60% from the start of the year while Robinhood shares had quadrupled in value. A big portion of these increases came in Q4 after November’s election results brought about a broad change in crypto’s political fortunes. The question now is how much these new conditions could translate to a lift for Robinhood and Coinbase in 2025.

但故事從此發生了巨大的變化。 2024 年最後幾個小時，Coinbase 股價較年初上漲了約 60%，而 Robinhood 股價則翻了兩倍。其中很大一部分增長出現在第四季度，此前 11 月的選舉結果為加密貨幣的政治命運帶來了廣泛的變化。現在的問題是，這些新條件可以在 2025 年為 Robinhood 和 Coinbase 帶來多大的提升。

The two companies are hardly the same, of course. Robinhood made its name as a go-to place for trading stocks and options, and has since added a growing suite of wealth management tools as it seeks to challenge the likes of Charles Schwab and Fidelity. Coinbase, in contrast, launched as the first compliance-focused crypto exchange and has since established itself as the flagship brand of the digital assets industry.

當然，這兩家公司幾乎不一樣。 Robinhood 因股票和期權交易的首選平台而聞名，此後又增加了越來越多的財富管理工具，以挑戰嘉信理財 (Charles Schwab) 和富達 (Fidelity) 等公司。相較之下，Coinbase 是第一個以合規為重點的加密貨幣交易所，自此確立了自己作為數位資產產業旗艦品牌的地位。

In recent years, though, Robinhood has made major inroads into digital assets, building its own noncustodial wallet while crypto has become its second-biggest revenue stream. Coinbase, meanwhile, has built bridges in the traditional finance industry as a custodian for the major Wall Street ETF providers, and by offering interest-bearing stablecoin accounts.

不過，近年來，Robinhood 在數位資產領域取得了重大進展，建立了自己的非託管錢包，而加密貨幣已成為其第二大收入來源。同時，Coinbase 作為華爾街主要 ETF 提供者的託管人，並透過提供計息穩定幣帳戶，在傳統金融業建立了橋樑。

This means Robinhood and Coinbase are poised to compete more directly, but both will benefit from a growing pie as the worlds of crypto and traditional finance increasingly converge—a trend the companies are ideally positioned to ride, especially compared to traditional Wall Street and pure-play crypto firms.

這意味著Robinhood 和Coinbase 準備進行更直接的競爭，但隨著加密貨幣和傳統金融世界日益融合，兩家公司都將受益於不斷增長的蛋糕——這兩家公司處於順應這一趨勢的理想位置，特別是與傳統華爾街和純金融相比。

In the short term, the latest crypto boom will translate into big tailwinds from trading revenues. Robinhood and Coinbase will only post Q4 earnings in February, but look for monster results in light of the market frenzy driven by the huge Bitcoin rally. The history of the crypto markets shows this is likely to be followed by a prolonged downturn as the latest crypto hype fades, but the broader structural changes set to benefit the industry mean both companies are set to reap long-term benefits.

短期內，最新的加密貨幣熱潮將轉化為交易收入的巨大推動力。 Robinhood 和 Coinbase 只會在 2 月發布第四季財報，但鑑於比特幣大幅上漲推動的市場狂熱，預計將獲得驚人的業績。加密市場的歷史表明，隨著最新的加密炒作消退，接下來可能會出現長期低迷，但有利於該行業的更廣泛的結構性變化意味著兩家公司都將獲得長期利益。

The fast-emerging stablecoin market, in particular, is likely to emerge as a major business line for both Coinbase and Robinhood. In 2025, the U.S. is widely expected to pass legislation that will help make stablecoins a cornerstone of global commerce—a development that is also being anticipated by payments giant Stripe, which recently acquired stablecoin firm Bridge for $1.1 billion.

尤其是快速新興的穩定幣市場，很可能成為 Coinbase 和 Robinhood 的主要業務線。人們普遍預計美國將在 2025 年通過立法，幫助穩定幣成為全球商業的基石——支付巨頭 Stripe 也在預料到這一發展，該公司最近以 11 億美元收購了穩定幣公司 Bridge。

Meanwhile, Coinbase is poised to enjoy additional growth from its fast-growing Base blockchain—which has quietly become a major competitor to Ethereum—and its offshore derivatives exchange. Robinhood is also set to capitalize on its own recent crypto-related initiatives, including its foray into prediction markets and its growing crypto presence in Europe.

同時，Coinbase 準備從其快速成長的 Base 區塊鏈（它已悄悄成為以太坊的主要競爭對手）及其離岸衍生性商品交易所中獲得額外的成長。 Robinhood 也準備好利用其最近的加密相關舉措，包括進軍預測市場以及在歐洲日益增長的加密業務。

The bottom line is that both Robinhood and Coinbase have evolved from firms reliant on a feast-or-famine business model based around temporary trading trends, and into companies that occupy the pole position as crypto becomes a mainstay of global finance.

最重要的是，Robinhood 和 Coinbase 都已經從依賴基於臨時交易趨勢的盛宴或飢荒商業模式的公司，發展成為隨著加密貨幣成為全球金融支柱而佔據主導地位的公司。