Robinhood 和 Coinbase 回归。这一次，他们将留下来。

两家公司均于 2021 年初上市，此后​​一直遵循相似的发展轨迹。冲出大门后，两家 Coinbase 的股价

Both companies went public in early 2021 and have since followed similar trajectories. After sprinting out of the blocks, the share prices of both Coinbase and Robinhood took nosedives following a series of shifts in the macroeconomy and the scandal-driven implosion of the crypto markets in late 2022. By 2023, both firms were scuffling so badly they lost more than 80% of their value and were forced to implement multiple rounds of layoffs.

两家公司均于 2021 年初上市，此后​​一直遵循相似的发展轨迹。在冲出区块后，随着宏观经济的一系列变化以及 2022 年底丑闻引发的加密货币市场崩溃，Coinbase 和 Robinhood 的股价都出现了暴跌。到 2023 年，两家公司都陷入了严重的混战，最终都输了其价值超过80%，被迫实施多轮裁员。

But the story has since changed dramatically. In the final hours of 2024, Coinbase shares were up around 60% from the start of the year while Robinhood shares had quadrupled in value. A big portion of these increases came in Q4 after November’s election results brought about a broad change in crypto’s political fortunes. The question now is how much these new conditions could translate to a lift for Robinhood and Coinbase in 2025.

但故事从此发生了巨大的变化。 2024 年最后几个小时，Coinbase 股价较年初上涨了约 60%，而 Robinhood 股价则翻了两番。其中很大一部分增长发生在第四季度，此前 11 月的选举结果给加密货币的政治命运带来了广泛的变化。现在的问题是，这些新条件可以在 2025 年为 Robinhood 和 Coinbase 带来多大的提升。

The two companies are hardly the same, of course. Robinhood made its name as a go-to place for trading stocks and options, and has since added a growing suite of wealth management tools as it seeks to challenge the likes of Charles Schwab and Fidelity. Coinbase, in contrast, launched as the first compliance-focused crypto exchange and has since established itself as the flagship brand of the digital assets industry.

当然，这两家公司几乎不一样。 Robinhood 因股票和期权交易的首选平台而闻名，此后又增加了越来越多的财富管理工具，以挑战嘉信理财 (Charles Schwab) 和富达 (Fidelity) 等公司。相比之下，Coinbase 是第一个以合规为重点的加密货币交易所，自此确立了自己作为数字资产行业旗舰品牌的地位。

In recent years, though, Robinhood has made major inroads into digital assets, building its own noncustodial wallet while crypto has become its second-biggest revenue stream. Coinbase, meanwhile, has built bridges in the traditional finance industry as a custodian for the major Wall Street ETF providers, and by offering interest-bearing stablecoin accounts.

不过，近年来，Robinhood 在数字资产领域取得了重大进展，建立了自己的非托管钱包，而加密货币已成为其第二大收入来源。与此同时，Coinbase 作为华尔街主要 ETF 提供商的托管人，并通过提供计息稳定币账户，在传统金融行业建立了桥梁。

This means Robinhood and Coinbase are poised to compete more directly, but both will benefit from a growing pie as the worlds of crypto and traditional finance increasingly converge—a trend the companies are ideally positioned to ride, especially compared to traditional Wall Street and pure-play crypto firms.

这意味着 Robinhood 和 Coinbase 准备进行更直接的竞争，但随着加密货币和传统金融世界日益融合，两家公司都将受益于不断增长的蛋糕——这两家公司处于顺应这一趋势的理想位置，特别是与传统华尔街和纯金融相比。玩加密货币公司。

In the short term, the latest crypto boom will translate into big tailwinds from trading revenues. Robinhood and Coinbase will only post Q4 earnings in February, but look for monster results in light of the market frenzy driven by the huge Bitcoin rally. The history of the crypto markets shows this is likely to be followed by a prolonged downturn as the latest crypto hype fades, but the broader structural changes set to benefit the industry mean both companies are set to reap long-term benefits.

短期内，最新的加密货币热潮将转化为交易收入的巨大推动力。 Robinhood 和 Coinbase 只会在 2 月份发布第四季度财报，但鉴于比特币大幅上涨推动的市场狂热，预计将获得惊人的业绩。加密市场的历史表明，随着最新的加密炒作消退，接下来可能会出现长期低迷，但有利于行业的更广泛的结构性变化意味着两家公司都将获得长期利益。

The fast-emerging stablecoin market, in particular, is likely to emerge as a major business line for both Coinbase and Robinhood. In 2025, the U.S. is widely expected to pass legislation that will help make stablecoins a cornerstone of global commerce—a development that is also being anticipated by payments giant Stripe, which recently acquired stablecoin firm Bridge for $1.1 billion.

尤其是快速发展的稳定币市场，很可能成为 Coinbase 和 Robinhood 的主要业务线。人们普遍预计美国将在 2025 年通过立法，帮助稳定币成为全球商业的基石——支付巨头 Stripe 也在预料到这一发展，该公司最近以 11 亿美元收购了稳定币公司 Bridge。

Meanwhile, Coinbase is poised to enjoy additional growth from its fast-growing Base blockchain—which has quietly become a major competitor to Ethereum—and its offshore derivatives exchange. Robinhood is also set to capitalize on its own recent crypto-related initiatives, including its foray into prediction markets and its growing crypto presence in Europe.

与此同时，Coinbase 准备从其快速增长的 Base 区块链（它已悄然成为以太坊的主要竞争对手）及其离岸衍生品交易所中获得额外的增长。 Robinhood 还准备利用其最近的加密相关举措，包括进军预测市场以及在欧洲日益增长的加密业务。

The bottom line is that both Robinhood and Coinbase have evolved from firms reliant on a feast-or-famine business model based around temporary trading trends, and into companies that occupy the pole position as crypto becomes a mainstay of global finance.

最重要的是，Robinhood 和 Coinbase 都已经从依赖基于临时交易趋势的盛宴或饥荒商业模式的公司，发展成为随着加密货币成为全球金融支柱而占据主导地位的公司。