通膨上升：歐洲央行的一個模糊訊號

歐元區最新通膨數據證實12月年增2.4%，而11月為2.2%

The inflation rate in the euro area rose to 2.4% year-on-year in December, up from 2.2% in November, according to FactSet estimates. This increase was driven by higher prices for services and food products, with underlying inflation, excluding energy and food, remaining at 2.7%. The figures are closely watched ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) first meeting of the year on January 30.

根據 FactSet 估計，12 月歐元區通膨率年增至 2.4%，高於 11 月的 2.2%。這一增長是由服務和食品價格上漲推動的，不包括能源和食品的潛在通膨率仍保持在 2.7%。在 1 月 30 日歐洲央行 (ECB) 召開今年第一次會議之前，這些數據受到密切關注。

While some investors anticipate a rapid monetary easing with inflation gradually converging towards the ECB's 2% target, others point to the sustainability of underlying inflation, which may prompt the central bank to proceed with caution. The ECB aims to balance support for the economy with controlling inflation, a delicate task in the current environment.

雖然一些投資者預計貨幣政策將迅速放鬆，通膨將逐漸向歐洲央行 2% 的目標靠攏，但其他投資者則指出潛在通膨的可持續性，這可能會促使央行謹慎行事。歐洲央行的目標是在對經濟的支持與控制通膨之間取得平衡，這在當前環境下是一項棘手的任務。

According to Michael Field, market strategist at Morningstar, the inflation figures may dampen the optimistic forecasts for a swift monetary easing. "The more cautious among us might be concerned by this figure, whereas a few months ago some observers were wondering whether the ECB had delayed adjusting its rates and, to put it bluntly, whether we were not entering a deflationary phase," he noted.

晨星公司市場策略師麥可菲爾德表示，通膨數據可能會削弱對貨幣快速寬鬆的樂觀預期。他指出：“我們當中比較謹慎的人可能會對這個數字感到擔憂，而幾個月前，一些觀察家想知道歐洲央行是否推遲了利率調整，坦率地說，我們是否沒有進入通貨緊縮階段。”

A closer examination of the inflation components reveals that services made the largest contribution with an increase of +3.9 percentage points in November 2024. Food products, alcohol, and tobacco followed with an increase of +2.8 points, while industrial goods excluding energy showed a more moderate rise of +0.7 points. In contrast, the energy sector had a deflationary effect (-1.9 points), partially offsetting the acceleration in other categories.

對通膨成分的仔細研究顯示，服務業的貢獻最大，2024 年11 月增長了+3.9 個百分點。品則成長了+2.8 個百分點。相較之下，能源產業產生了通貨緊縮效應（-1.9點），部分抵消了其他類別的加速成長。

These trends indicate that inflation remains primarily driven by rising prices for services and food, two components that are often less sensitive to short-term monetary adjustments. If this dynamic continues, the expected disinflation in 2025 could be slower than anticipated, potentially limiting the ECB's maneuvering room.

這些趨勢表明，通膨仍然主要由服務和食品價格上漲驅動，這兩個組成部分往往對短期貨幣調整不太敏感。如果這種動態持續下去，2025 年的預期通貨緊縮可能會慢於預期，這可能會限制歐洲央行的迴旋空間。

Despite the inflation remaining above the 2% target, the ECB is set to gradually ease its monetary policy. During its December meeting, it revised down its inflation forecasts for 2025 to 2.1%, compared to 2.3% in its previous estimates. This adjustment confirms its medium-term price stability objective and strengthens the hypothesis of continued rate cuts in the coming months.

儘管通膨仍高於2%的目標，歐洲央行仍將逐步放鬆貨幣政策。在 12 月的會議上，它將 2025 年通膨預測下調至 2.1%，而先前的預測為 2.3%。此次調整證實了其中期價格穩定目標，並強化了未來幾個月繼續降息的假設。

Mark Wall, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Research, believes that inflation may have peaked at 2.4% in December before beginning a gradual decline below the 2% threshold in the first few months of 2025. He adds that the risk of inflation being too low is currently more likely than an upward surge. "In reality, the risks for next year are more oriented towards inflation below 2% rather than above," he analyzes.

德意志銀行研究部首席經濟學家馬克沃爾(Mark Wall) 認為，通膨率可能在12 月達到2.4% 的峰值，然後在2025 年前幾個月開始逐漸降至2% 的門檻以下。說，通膨率過低的風險是目前更有可能出現上漲。他分析道：“事實上，明年的風險更傾向於通膨率低於 2%，而不是高於 2%。”

This perspective reassures investors, who anticipate a more rapid acceleration in ECB rate cuts to accompany this dynamic. The anticipation of a new interest rate reduction as early as January is gaining strength, especially since the ECB already implemented a 0.25% cut in December, bringing its deposit rate to 3%.

這一觀點讓投資人感到放心，他們預計歐洲央行降息將伴隨這一動態而加快。最早在 1 月降息的預期正在增強，尤其是歐洲央行在 12 月已經實施了 0.25% 的降息，將存款利率降至 3%。

However, observers are divided on the extent of the expected movement this year. Some predict a gradual descent towards 1.50% by the end of 2025, while others estimate that the ECB may stop around 2% to avoid a premature inflation rebound.

然而，觀察家對今年預期的變動程度存在分歧。有些人預測到 2025 年底將逐漸下降至 1.50%，而另一些人則估計歐洲央行可能會停止在 2% 左右以避免通膨過早反彈。

The impact of this monetary policy on financial markets remains a major issue. A more flexible approach by the ECB could stimulate European stocks, which currently show a significant discount compared to American markets. According to Goldman Sachs, inflation should converge towards the 2% target by the end of the year, but price adjustments at the beginning of the year are a key variable to watch.

這種貨幣政策對金融市場的影響仍然是一個主要問題。歐洲央行採取更靈活的做法可能會刺激歐洲股市，目前歐洲股市與美國市場相比存在大幅折扣。高盛表示，通膨應在年底前趨向2%的目標，但年初的價格調整是值得關注的關鍵變數。

Moreover, if inflation slows as expected, the ECB may have sufficient room to accelerate rate cuts, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of European assets compared to their global counterparts. Conversely, any sustainability of inflationary pressures could force the institution to hesitate in its decisions, with direct consequences for corporate financing and market dynamics.

此外，如果通膨如預期放緩，歐洲央行可能有足夠的空間加速降息，從而增強歐洲資產相對於全球資產的競爭力。相反，任何持續的通膨壓力都可能迫使機構在決策上猶豫不決，從而對企業融資和市場動態產生直接影響。

The coming months will be decisive for the orientation of monetary policy in the euro area. If inflation follows the anticipated trajectory and approaches the 2% target, the ECB could accelerate its rate cuts, thereby facilitating access to credit and stimulating investment.

未來幾個月對於歐元區貨幣政策的方向至關重要。如果通膨遵循預期軌跡並接近2%的目標，歐洲央行可能會加速降息，從而促進信貸獲取並刺激投資。

Conversely, an unexpected rise in prices, driven by higher energy costs or tensions in supply chains, would complicate this strategy and force the institution to hesitate. This dilemma will be closely monitored by the markets as the euro area seeks to reconcile economic growth and price stability in an uncertain context.

相反，由於能源成本上升或供應鏈緊張而導致價格意外上漲，將使這一策略變得複雜，並迫使該機構猶豫不決。隨著歐元區尋求在不確定的背景下協調經濟成長和價格穩定，市場將密切關注這一困境。