通胀上升：欧洲央行的一个模糊信号

欧元区最新通胀数据证实12月同比增长2.4%，而11月为2.2%

The inflation rate in the euro area rose to 2.4% year-on-year in December, up from 2.2% in November, according to FactSet estimates. This increase was driven by higher prices for services and food products, with underlying inflation, excluding energy and food, remaining at 2.7%. The figures are closely watched ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) first meeting of the year on January 30.

据 FactSet 估计，12 月份欧元区通胀率同比升至 2.4%，高于 11 月份的 2.2%。这一增长是由服务和食品价格上涨推动的，不包括能源和食品的潜在通胀率仍保持在 2.7%。在 1 月 30 日欧洲央行 (ECB) 召开今年第一次会议之前，这些数据受到密切关注。

While some investors anticipate a rapid monetary easing with inflation gradually converging towards the ECB's 2% target, others point to the sustainability of underlying inflation, which may prompt the central bank to proceed with caution. The ECB aims to balance support for the economy with controlling inflation, a delicate task in the current environment.

虽然一些投资者预计货币政策将迅速放松，通胀将逐渐向欧洲央行 2% 的目标靠拢，但其他投资者则指出潜在通胀的可持续性，这可能会促使央行谨慎行事。欧洲央行的目标是在对经济的支持与控制通胀之间取得平衡，这在当前环境下是一项棘手的任务。

According to Michael Field, market strategist at Morningstar, the inflation figures may dampen the optimistic forecasts for a swift monetary easing. "The more cautious among us might be concerned by this figure, whereas a few months ago some observers were wondering whether the ECB had delayed adjusting its rates and, to put it bluntly, whether we were not entering a deflationary phase," he noted.

晨星公司市场策略师迈克尔·菲尔德表示，通胀数据可能会削弱对货币迅速宽松的乐观预期。他指出：“我们当中比较谨慎的人可能会对这个数字感到担忧，而几个月前，一些观察家想知道欧洲央行是否推迟了利率调整，坦率地说，我们是否没有进入通货紧缩阶段。”

A closer examination of the inflation components reveals that services made the largest contribution with an increase of +3.9 percentage points in November 2024. Food products, alcohol, and tobacco followed with an increase of +2.8 points, while industrial goods excluding energy showed a more moderate rise of +0.7 points. In contrast, the energy sector had a deflationary effect (-1.9 points), partially offsetting the acceleration in other categories.

对通胀成分的仔细研究显示，服务业的贡献最大，2024 年 11 月增长了 +3.9 个百分点。食品、酒类和烟草紧随其后，增长了 +2.8 个百分点，而除能源之外的工业品则增长了 +2.8 个百分点。适度上涨+0.7点。相比之下，能源行业产生了通货紧缩效应（-1.9点），部分抵消了其他类别的加速增长。

These trends indicate that inflation remains primarily driven by rising prices for services and food, two components that are often less sensitive to short-term monetary adjustments. If this dynamic continues, the expected disinflation in 2025 could be slower than anticipated, potentially limiting the ECB's maneuvering room.

这些趋势表明，通胀仍然主要由服务和食品价格上涨驱动，这两个组成部分往往对短期货币调整不太敏感。如果这种动态持续下去，2025 年的预期通货紧缩可能会慢于预期，从而可能限制欧洲央行的回旋空间。

Despite the inflation remaining above the 2% target, the ECB is set to gradually ease its monetary policy. During its December meeting, it revised down its inflation forecasts for 2025 to 2.1%, compared to 2.3% in its previous estimates. This adjustment confirms its medium-term price stability objective and strengthens the hypothesis of continued rate cuts in the coming months.

尽管通胀仍高于2%的目标，欧洲央行仍将逐步放松货币政策。在 12 月的会议上，它将 2025 年通胀预测下调至 2.1%，而之前的预测为 2.3%。此次调整证实了其中期价格稳定目标，并强化了未来几个月继续降息的假设。

Mark Wall, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Research, believes that inflation may have peaked at 2.4% in December before beginning a gradual decline below the 2% threshold in the first few months of 2025. He adds that the risk of inflation being too low is currently more likely than an upward surge. "In reality, the risks for next year are more oriented towards inflation below 2% rather than above," he analyzes.

德意志银行研究部首席经济学家马克·沃尔 (Mark Wall) 认为，通胀率可能在 12 月达到 2.4% 的峰值，然后在 2025 年前几个月开始逐渐降至 2% 的门槛以下。他补充说，通胀率过低的风险是目前更有可能出现上涨。他分析道：“事实上，明年的风险更倾向于通胀率低于 2%，而不是高于 2%。”

This perspective reassures investors, who anticipate a more rapid acceleration in ECB rate cuts to accompany this dynamic. The anticipation of a new interest rate reduction as early as January is gaining strength, especially since the ECB already implemented a 0.25% cut in December, bringing its deposit rate to 3%.

这一观点让投资者感到放心，他们预计欧洲央行降息将伴随这一动态而加快。最早在 1 月份降息的预期正在增强，尤其是欧洲央行在 12 月份已经实施了 0.25% 的降息，将存款利率降至 3%。

However, observers are divided on the extent of the expected movement this year. Some predict a gradual descent towards 1.50% by the end of 2025, while others estimate that the ECB may stop around 2% to avoid a premature inflation rebound.

然而，观察人士对今年预期的变动程度存在分歧。一些人预测到 2025 年底将逐渐下降至 1.50%，而另一些人则估计欧洲央行可能会停止在 2% 左右以避免通胀过早反弹。

The impact of this monetary policy on financial markets remains a major issue. A more flexible approach by the ECB could stimulate European stocks, which currently show a significant discount compared to American markets. According to Goldman Sachs, inflation should converge towards the 2% target by the end of the year, but price adjustments at the beginning of the year are a key variable to watch.

这种货币政策对金融市场的影响仍然是一个主要问题。欧洲央行采取更灵活的做法可能会刺激欧洲股市，目前欧洲股市与美国市场相比存在大幅折扣。高盛表示，通胀应会在年底前趋向2%的目标，但年初的价格调整是值得关注的关键变量。

Moreover, if inflation slows as expected, the ECB may have sufficient room to accelerate rate cuts, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of European assets compared to their global counterparts. Conversely, any sustainability of inflationary pressures could force the institution to hesitate in its decisions, with direct consequences for corporate financing and market dynamics.

此外，如果通胀如预期放缓，欧洲央行可能有足够的空间加速降息，从而增强欧洲资产相对于全球资产的竞争力。相反，任何持续的通胀压力都可能迫使机构在决策上犹豫不决，从而对企业融资和市场动态产生直接影响。

The coming months will be decisive for the orientation of monetary policy in the euro area. If inflation follows the anticipated trajectory and approaches the 2% target, the ECB could accelerate its rate cuts, thereby facilitating access to credit and stimulating investment.

未来几个月对于欧元区货币政策的走向至关重要。如果通胀遵循预期轨迹并接近2%的目标，欧洲央行可能会加速降息，从而促进信贷获取并刺激投资。

Conversely, an unexpected rise in prices, driven by higher energy costs or tensions in supply chains, would complicate this strategy and force the institution to hesitate. This dilemma will be closely monitored by the markets as the euro area seeks to reconcile economic growth and price stability in an uncertain context.

相反，由于能源成本上升或供应链紧张而导致价格意外上涨，将使这一战略变得复杂，并迫使该机构犹豫不决。随着欧元区寻求在不确定的背景下协调经济增长和价格稳定，市场将密切关注这一困境。