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加密貨幣新聞文章

已實現的比特幣價格揭示了市場情緒的轉變:短期持有者推動比特幣價格飆升,修正迫在眉睫

2024/03/21 23:30

已實現的比特幣價格揭示了市場情緒的轉變:短期持有者推動比特幣價格飆升,修正迫在眉睫

What Does the Realized Bitcoin Price Reveal About Market Sentiment?

比特幣的實際價格揭示了哪些市場情緒?

The realized Bitcoin price, an indicator that represents the average on-chain acquisition cost, offers a valuable gauge of the market's valuation baseline. When examined through the lens of short-term and long-term holders (STHs and LTHs), it provides insights into their investment horizons and their influence on Bitcoin's price.

已實現的比特幣價格是代表平均鏈上收購成本的指標,為市場估值基準提供了有價值的衡量標準。當透過短期和長期持有者(STH 和 LTH)的角度進行審視時,它可以深入了解他們的投資視野及其對比特幣價格的影響。

Are Short-Term Holders Driving the Recent Price Surge?

短期持有者是否推動了最近的價格飆升?

The 7-day change in realized price for STHs reached a three-year high on March 13th, at 10.62%. Conversely, the 7-day change in realized price for LTHs stood at -0.183% on the same day, indicating a slight decrease. This divergence suggests a significant influx of short-term speculative interest into the market. New entrants were purchasing Bitcoin at higher prices than long-term holders between March 6th and March 13th, pushing the STH realized price upward. The peak in STH realized price on March 13th, coinciding with Bitcoin's price reaching $73,100, implies substantial investments at or near peak prices.

3 月 13 日,STH 實現價格的 7 天變化達到三年來的最高點,達到 10.62%。相反,當日 LTH 的實現價格 7 天變化為-0.183%,略有下降。這種差異顯示短期投機興趣大量湧入市場。 3 月 6 日至 3 月 13 日期間,新進業者以高於長期持有者的價格購買比特幣,推高了 STH 的實現價格。 3 月 13 日,STH 實現價格達到峰值,與比特幣價格達到 73,100 美元同時發生,這意味著大量投資處於或接近峰值價格。

How Do Realized Price Changes Signal Market Sentiment?

實際價格變動如何反映市場情緒?

Tracking changes in realized prices for both LTHs and STHs is crucial for understanding shifts in market sentiment. A rising STH realized price, particularly during a period of Bitcoin price appreciation, can indicate growing optimism or speculative demand, as new entrants are willing to invest at higher price levels. In contrast, a relatively stable or decreasing LTH realized price change suggests a hold sentiment among long-term investors, who may not adjust their holdings despite price fluctuations, thereby anchoring the market's foundational perception of value.

追蹤 LTH 和 STH 的實際價格變化對於了解市場情緒的變化至關重要。 STH 實現價格的上漲,特別是在比特幣價格升值期間,可能表明樂觀情緒或投機需求不斷增長,因為新進入者願意以更高的價格水平進行投資。相較之下,相對穩定或下降的 LTH 已實現價格變化表明長期投資者的持有情緒,儘管價格波動,他們可能不會調整其持倉,從而鞏固了市場的基本價值認知。

Is the Market Poised for a Correction?

市場是否已做好調整準備?

Data from Glassnode indicates that the market may be at an inflection point. The dramatic increase in STH realized price change, alongside a significant increase in Bitcoin's price, pointed to a short-term bullish sentiment driven by speculative trading and new entrants. However, spikes as sharp as the one seen on March 13th rarely persist for more than a few weeks before experiencing a significant correction, which is precisely what has occurred in the past week.

Glassnode 的數據表明,市場可能正處於轉折點。 STH 實際價格變化的急劇增加,以及比特幣價格的大幅上漲,表明投機交易和新進入者推動了短期看漲情緒。然而,像 3 月 13 日那樣劇烈的高峰很少會持續超過幾週,然後才會經歷重大調整,而這正是過去一周發生的情況。

What Factors Are Driving the Market Consolidation?

哪些因素正在推動市場整合?

The 7-day change in STH realized price dropped by 1.469% by March 20th, following Bitcoin's decline to $61,000 and a subsequent recovery to $68,000. This sharp drop suggests a cooling of speculative enthusiasm, leading to a market consolidation phase. The data indicates that the buying momentum and optimism that drove the significant increase in STH realized price and, by extension, Bitcoin's price have subsided, resulting in a more cautious market sentiment.

繼比特幣跌至 61,000 美元並隨後回升至 68,000 美元之後,截至 3 月 20 日,STH 的 7 天變化實現價格下跌了 1.469%。這種急劇下跌表示投機熱情降溫,導致市場整合階段。數據表明,推動 STH 實現價格大幅上漲以及比特幣價格大幅上漲的購買勢頭和樂觀情緒已經消退,導致市場情緒更加謹慎。

Could the Influx of New Capital Be Slowing?

新資本流入會放緩嗎?

Several interpretations can be drawn from this data point. Firstly, the reduction in the rate of change in STH realized price could indicate that the influx of new capital at higher valuation levels has slowed. The simultaneous decrease in both the STH realized price change and Bitcoin's market price can also suggest a reduction in sell-side pressure from short-term holders.

從這個數據點可以得出幾種解釋。首先,某物實現價格變化率的下降可能表示較高估值水準的新資本流入已經放緩。 STH 實現價格變化和比特幣市場價格的同時下降也表明短期持有者的賣方壓力減輕。

How Will Long-Term Holders Influence Future Market Behavior?

長期持有者將如何影響未來市場行為?

Typically, a high STH realized price change, especially when it sets a record as it did on March 13th, could indicate a heightened likelihood of selling activity as short-term holders look to capitalize on gains. However, as this pressure subsides, it can stabilize prices, albeit at a level lower than the recent highs, as the market absorbs the effects of previous speculative trading. Looking ahead, this period of recalibration could pave the way for resistance to be created at this price level, as it allows the market to digest recent gains. Moreover, the behavior of long-term holders will continue to be a critical factor to monitor, as their steadiness amidst volatility often serves as an anchor for the market's stability.

通常情況下,STH 實現的價格變化較高,尤其是當它像 3 月 13 日那樣創下紀錄時,可能表明由於短期持有者希望利用收益而進行拋售活動的可能性增加。然而,隨著這種壓力的消退,隨著市場吸收先前投機交易的影響,它可以穩定價格,儘管價格低於近期高點。展望未來,這段重新調整時期可能為在這一價格水準上形成阻力鋪平道路,因為它允許市場消化近期的漲幅。此外,長期持有者的行為將繼續成為需要監控的關鍵因素,因為他們在波動中的穩定性往往是市場穩定的支柱。

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