已实现的比特币价格揭示了市场情绪的转变：短期持有者推动比特币价格飙升，修正迫在眉睫

What Does the Realized Bitcoin Price Reveal About Market Sentiment?

比特币的实际价格揭示了哪些市场情绪？

The realized Bitcoin price, an indicator that represents the average on-chain acquisition cost, offers a valuable gauge of the market's valuation baseline. When examined through the lens of short-term and long-term holders (STHs and LTHs), it provides insights into their investment horizons and their influence on Bitcoin's price.

已实现的比特币价格是代表平均链上收购成本的指标，为市场估值基准提供了有价值的衡量标准。当通过短期和长期持有者（STH 和 LTH）的角度进行审视时，它可以深入了解他们的投资视野及其对比特币价格的影响。

Are Short-Term Holders Driving the Recent Price Surge?

短期持有者是否推动了最近的价格飙升？

The 7-day change in realized price for STHs reached a three-year high on March 13th, at 10.62%. Conversely, the 7-day change in realized price for LTHs stood at -0.183% on the same day, indicating a slight decrease. This divergence suggests a significant influx of short-term speculative interest into the market. New entrants were purchasing Bitcoin at higher prices than long-term holders between March 6th and March 13th, pushing the STH realized price upward. The peak in STH realized price on March 13th, coinciding with Bitcoin's price reaching $73,100, implies substantial investments at or near peak prices.

3 月 13 日，STH 实现价格的 7 天变化达到三年来的最高点，达到 10.62%。相反，当日 LTH 的实现价格 7 天变化为-0.183%，略有下降。这种差异表明短期投机兴趣大量涌入市场。 3 月 6 日至 3 月 13 日期间，新进入者以高于长期持有者的价格购买比特币，从而推高了 STH 的实现价格。 3 月 13 日，STH 实现价格达到峰值，与比特币价格达到 73,100 美元同时发生，这意味着大量投资处于或接近峰值价格。

How Do Realized Price Changes Signal Market Sentiment?

实际价格变化如何反映市场情绪？

Tracking changes in realized prices for both LTHs and STHs is crucial for understanding shifts in market sentiment. A rising STH realized price, particularly during a period of Bitcoin price appreciation, can indicate growing optimism or speculative demand, as new entrants are willing to invest at higher price levels. In contrast, a relatively stable or decreasing LTH realized price change suggests a hold sentiment among long-term investors, who may not adjust their holdings despite price fluctuations, thereby anchoring the market's foundational perception of value.

跟踪 LTH 和 STH 的实际价格变化对于了解市场情绪的变化至关重要。 STH 实现价格的上涨，特别是在比特币价格升值期间，可能表明乐观情绪或投机需求不断增长，因为新进入者愿意以更高的价格水平进行投资。相比之下，相对稳定或下降的 LTH 已实现价格变化表明长期投资者的持有情绪，尽管价格波动，他们可能不会调整其持仓，从而巩固了市场的基本价值认知。

Is the Market Poised for a Correction?

市场是否已做好调整准备？

Data from Glassnode indicates that the market may be at an inflection point. The dramatic increase in STH realized price change, alongside a significant increase in Bitcoin's price, pointed to a short-term bullish sentiment driven by speculative trading and new entrants. However, spikes as sharp as the one seen on March 13th rarely persist for more than a few weeks before experiencing a significant correction, which is precisely what has occurred in the past week.

Glassnode 的数据表明，市场可能正处于拐点。 STH 实际价格变化的急剧增加，以及比特币价格的大幅上涨，表明投机交易和新进入者推动了短期看涨情绪。然而，像 3 月 13 日那样剧烈的峰值很少会持续超过几周，然后才会经历重大调整，而这正是过去一周发生的情况。

What Factors Are Driving the Market Consolidation?

哪些因素正在推动市场整合？

The 7-day change in STH realized price dropped by 1.469% by March 20th, following Bitcoin's decline to $61,000 and a subsequent recovery to $68,000. This sharp drop suggests a cooling of speculative enthusiasm, leading to a market consolidation phase. The data indicates that the buying momentum and optimism that drove the significant increase in STH realized price and, by extension, Bitcoin's price have subsided, resulting in a more cautious market sentiment.

继比特币跌至 61,000 美元并随后回升至 68,000 美元之后，截至 3 月 20 日，STH 的 7 天变化实现价格下跌了 1.469%。这种急剧下跌表明投机热情降温，导致市场整合阶段。数据表明，推动 STH 实现价格大幅上涨以及比特币价格大幅上涨的购买势头和乐观情绪已经消退，导致市场情绪更加谨慎。

Could the Influx of New Capital Be Slowing?

新资本流入会放缓吗？

Several interpretations can be drawn from this data point. Firstly, the reduction in the rate of change in STH realized price could indicate that the influx of new capital at higher valuation levels has slowed. The simultaneous decrease in both the STH realized price change and Bitcoin's market price can also suggest a reduction in sell-side pressure from short-term holders.

从这个数据点可以得出几种解释。首先，某物实现价格变化率的下降可能表明较高估值水平的新资本流入已经放缓。 STH 实现价格变化和比特币市场价格的同时下降也表明短期持有者的卖方压力减轻。

How Will Long-Term Holders Influence Future Market Behavior?

长期持有者将如何影响未来市场行为？

Typically, a high STH realized price change, especially when it sets a record as it did on March 13th, could indicate a heightened likelihood of selling activity as short-term holders look to capitalize on gains. However, as this pressure subsides, it can stabilize prices, albeit at a level lower than the recent highs, as the market absorbs the effects of previous speculative trading. Looking ahead, this period of recalibration could pave the way for resistance to be created at this price level, as it allows the market to digest recent gains. Moreover, the behavior of long-term holders will continue to be a critical factor to monitor, as their steadiness amidst volatility often serves as an anchor for the market's stability.

通常情况下，STH 实现的价格变化较高，尤其是当它像 3 月 13 日那样创下纪录时，可能表明由于短期持有者希望利用收益而进行抛售活动的可能性增加。然而，随着这种压力的消退，随着市场吸收之前投机交易的影响，它可以稳定价格，尽管价格低于近期高点。展望未来，这段重新调整时期可能为在这一价格水平上形成阻力铺平道路，因为它允许市场消化近期的涨幅。此外，长期持有者的行为将继续成为需要监控的关键因素，因为他们在波动中的稳定性往往是市场稳定的支柱。