特朗普總統已從他以前作為“股市總統”的立場轉移。

他現在正在採用一項戰略，將長期經濟重組優先於短期市場績效。

President Trump has shifted away from his previous stance as the “stock market’s President.”

特朗普總統已從他以前作為“股市總統”的立場轉移。

He is now openly embracing a strategy that prioritizes long-term economic restructuring over short-term market performance.

現在，他公開採用一項戰略，該戰略優先考慮長期經濟重組而不是短期市場績效。

According to analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, Trump now believes “short term pain” is his “only option” to lower inflation and successfully refinance the approximately $9.2 trillion of US debt coming due.

根據《科貝西信》的分析，特朗普現在認為“短期痛苦”是他的“唯一選擇”，可以降低通貨膨脹，並成功地再融資約9.2萬億美元的美國債務。

This shift has seen over $5 trillion wiped off US stocks as the administration pursues its goal of lower interest rates.

隨著政府追求降低利率的目標，這種轉變已超過5萬億美元的股票。

Administration’s United Front on Market Strategy

政府的統一陣線在市場戰略上

The administration has shown support for the president’s economic approach, despite the market volatility it has triggered.

儘管市場波動引發了市場的波動，但政府對總統的經濟方法表示了支持。

On March 6th, Trump made headlines that “destroyed investor confidence.” He signaled his willingness to accept market downturns as part of his broader economic plan.

3月6日，特朗普成為“破壞投資者信心的頭條”。他表明他願意接受市場低迷，這是他更廣泛的經濟計劃的一部分。

“If they want to play games, we can play them better than anyone else,” Trump said.

特朗普說：“如果他們想玩遊戲，我們可以比其他任何人都更好地玩遊戲。”

He was referring to chatter in financial circles about a “triple threat” of weaker-than-expected jobs data, rising government debt and a widening trade deficit.

他指的是金融界的聊天，涉及弱預期的就業數據，政府債務上升和貿易赤字擴大的“三重威脅”。

According to analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, these three factors are being closely watched by investors as they could herald a recession.

根據《科貝西信》的分析，投資者正在密切關注這三個因素，因為他們可以預示衰退。

Trump himself alluded to this possibility, stating that the US is in a “period of transition” that will “take a little time.”

特朗普本人暗示了這種可能性，並指出，美國正處於“過渡時期”，這將“花一點時間”。

Key cabinet members have supported this sentiment. Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated on March 6th that the “stock market [is] not driving outcomes for this admin.”

主要的內閣成員支持了這種觀點。商務部長盧特尼克（Lutnick）在3月6日表示，“股票市場不是為該管理員帶來的成果。”

Treasury Secretary Bessent more recently declared he’s “not concerned about a little volatility.”

財政部長Bessent最近宣布他“不擔心一點波動”。

Even close Trump ally Elon Musk appears to be in agreement with this approach. Following Tesla’s seventh-largest stock drop in history on March 10th, Musk posted that the situation “will be fine long-term.”

即使是緊密的特朗普盟友埃隆·馬斯克（Ally Elon Musk）似乎同意這種方法。在特斯拉（Tesla）3月10日的歷史悠久的第七大股票下跌之後，馬斯克（Musk）表示，這種情況“長期很好”。

The Kobeissi Letter adds that this strategy is a departure from Trump’s first term, where stock market performance was frequently highlighted as a measure of administration success.

Kobeissi信中補充說，這一策略與特朗普的第一任期背道而馳，在該期限中，股票市場的表現經常被強調為衡量行政成功的衡量。

Trump’s Economic Strategy Targets Multiple Pain Points

特朗普的經濟戰略針對多個痛苦

The administration’s economic plan addresses several interrelated challenges facing the US economy.

政府的經濟計劃解決了美國經濟面臨的幾個相互關聯的挑戰。

At the forefront is the massive refinancing task looming over the government in 2025, with $9.2 trillion of US debt either maturing or needing refinancing.

最前沿的是2025年迫在眉睫的政府龐大的再融資任務，其中9.2萬億美元的美國債務要么成熟或需要再融資。

According to The Kobeissi Letter, “the quickest way to lower rates ahead of this colossal refinancing would be a recession.” This is because economic contraction generally leads to lower interest rates.

根據Kobeissi的信，“在巨大的再融資之前降低費率的最快方法是衰退。”這是因為經濟收縮通常會導致利率降低。

Another key element of Trump’s strategy focuses on reducing oil prices, which have fallen over 20% since he took office.

特朗普戰略的另一個關鍵要素著重於降低石油價格，自上任以來，他的油價已下降了20％。

The Kobeissi Letter cites a Citigroup analysis suggesting that oil prices falling to $53 per barrel would lower inflation to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. A recession would likely further reduce oil demand and prices.

Kobeissi信引用了花旗集團的分析，該分析表明，油價降至每桶53美元將降低通貨膨脹率對美聯儲的目標2％。經濟衰退可能會進一步降低石油需求和價格。

The administration is simultaneously pursuing reduced trade deficits through a broad application of tariffs on “almost all US trade partners.”

通過對“幾乎所有美國貿易夥伴”的廣泛關稅，政府正在同時追求減少貿易赤字。

While intended to rebalance trade relationships, these measures are also “lowering GDP growth estimates,” creating another recessionary pressure.

儘管打算重新平衡貿易關係，但這些措施也“降低了GDP增長估計值”，造成了另一種衰退壓力。

Government employment is another target, with plans to cut “tons of government jobs.” The analysis points out that government positions have increased by 2 million over the past 4.5 years and have accounted for much of the recent job growth in the US.

政府就業是另一個目標，計劃削減“大量政府工作”。分析指出，在過去的4。5年中，政府職位增加了200萬，並且已經占美國最近的大部分工作增長。

Long-Term Gains Through Short-Term Sacrifice

長期通過短期犧牲

The Kobeissi Letter summarizes Trump’s goals as a six-point plan: lower inflation, reduced oil prices, decreased interest rates, less deficit spending, a smaller US trade deficit, and reduced government inefficiency.

Kobeissi信總結了特朗普作為六點計劃的目標：降低通貨膨脹，降低石油價格，降低利率，減少赤字支出，較小的美國貿易赤字以及降低政府的效率低下。

According to their analysis, “all of these can be obtained by, or are a byproduct of, economic weakness.”

根據他們的分析，“所有這些都可以通過經濟弱點的副產品獲得，也可以是副產品。”

This suggests the market volatility and potential recession are not unwanted side effects but rather intended catalysts for broader economic restructuring.

這表明市場波動和潛在的衰退不是不必要的副作用，而是預期的催化劑，以進行更廣泛的經濟重組。

Early signs show partial success with this approach. The 10-year Treasury yield has already fallen approximately 50 basis points from its recent high.

早期跡象通過這種方法顯示了部分成功。與最近的高價相比，這項為期10年的財政收益率已經下降了約50個基點。

The labor market strategy also shows this willingness to accept short-term disruption.

勞動力市場戰略還表明了這種接受短期破壞的意願。

By targeting the elimination of government positions, the administration aims to reverse what it views as artificial job growth that has masked underlying economic weakness.

通過以消除政府職位的目標，政府旨在扭轉其認為是人為的工作增長，掩蓋了基本的經濟弱點。