特朗普总统已从他以前作为“股市总统”的立场转移。

他现在正在采用一项战略，将长期经济重组优先于短期市场绩效。

President Trump has shifted away from his previous stance as the “stock market’s President.”

特朗普总统已从他以前作为“股市总统”的立场转移。

He is now openly embracing a strategy that prioritizes long-term economic restructuring over short-term market performance.

现在，他公开采用一项战略，该战略优先考虑长期经济重组而不是短期市场绩效。

According to analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, Trump now believes “short term pain” is his “only option” to lower inflation and successfully refinance the approximately $9.2 trillion of US debt coming due.

根据《科贝西信》的分析，特朗普现在认为“短期痛苦”是他的“唯一选择”，可以降低通货膨胀，并成功地再融资约9.2万亿美元的美国债务。

This shift has seen over $5 trillion wiped off US stocks as the administration pursues its goal of lower interest rates.

随着政府追求降低利率的目标，这种转变已超过5万亿美元的股票。

Administration’s United Front on Market Strategy

政府的统一阵线在市场战略上

The administration has shown support for the president’s economic approach, despite the market volatility it has triggered.

尽管市场波动引发了市场的波动，但政府对总统的经济方法表示了支持。

On March 6th, Trump made headlines that “destroyed investor confidence.” He signaled his willingness to accept market downturns as part of his broader economic plan.

3月6日，特朗普成为“破坏投资者信心的头条”。他表明他愿意接受市场低迷，这是他更广泛的经济计划的一部分。

“If they want to play games, we can play them better than anyone else,” Trump said.

特朗普说：“如果他们想玩游戏，我们可以比其他任何人都更好地玩游戏。”

He was referring to chatter in financial circles about a “triple threat” of weaker-than-expected jobs data, rising government debt and a widening trade deficit.

他指的是金融界的聊天，涉及弱预期的就业数据，政府债务上升和贸易赤字扩大的“三重威胁”。

According to analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, these three factors are being closely watched by investors as they could herald a recession.

根据《科贝西信》的分析，投资者正在密切关注这三个因素，因为他们可以预示衰退。

Trump himself alluded to this possibility, stating that the US is in a “period of transition” that will “take a little time.”

特朗普本人暗示了这种可能性，并指出，美国正处于“过渡时期”，这将“花一点时间”。

Key cabinet members have supported this sentiment. Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated on March 6th that the “stock market [is] not driving outcomes for this admin.”

主要的内阁成员支持了这种观点。商务部长卢特尼克（Lutnick）在3月6日表示，“股票市场不是为该管理员带来的成果。”

Treasury Secretary Bessent more recently declared he’s “not concerned about a little volatility.”

财政部长Bessent最近宣布他“不担心一点波动”。

Even close Trump ally Elon Musk appears to be in agreement with this approach. Following Tesla’s seventh-largest stock drop in history on March 10th, Musk posted that the situation “will be fine long-term.”

即使是紧密的特朗普盟友埃隆·马斯克（Ally Elon Musk）似乎同意这种方法。在特斯拉（Tesla）3月10日的历史悠久的第七大股票下跌之后，马斯克（Musk）表示，这种情况“长期很好”。

The Kobeissi Letter adds that this strategy is a departure from Trump’s first term, where stock market performance was frequently highlighted as a measure of administration success.

Kobeissi信中补充说，这一策略与特朗普的第一任期背道而驰，在该期限中，股票市场的表现经常被强调为衡量行政成功的衡量。

Trump’s Economic Strategy Targets Multiple Pain Points

特朗普的经济战略针对多个痛苦

The administration’s economic plan addresses several interrelated challenges facing the US economy.

政府的经济计划解决了美国经济面临的几个相互关联的挑战。

At the forefront is the massive refinancing task looming over the government in 2025, with $9.2 trillion of US debt either maturing or needing refinancing.

最前沿的是2025年迫在眉睫的政府庞大的再融资任务，其中9.2万亿美元的美国债务要么成熟或需要再融资。

According to The Kobeissi Letter, “the quickest way to lower rates ahead of this colossal refinancing would be a recession.” This is because economic contraction generally leads to lower interest rates.

根据Kobeissi的信，“在巨大的再融资之前降低费率的最快方法是衰退。”这是因为经济收缩通常会导致利率降低。

Another key element of Trump’s strategy focuses on reducing oil prices, which have fallen over 20% since he took office.

特朗普战略的另一个关键要素着重于降低石油价格，自上任以来，他的油价已下降了20％。

The Kobeissi Letter cites a Citigroup analysis suggesting that oil prices falling to $53 per barrel would lower inflation to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. A recession would likely further reduce oil demand and prices.

Kobeissi信引用了花旗集团的分析，该分析表明，油价降至每桶53美元将降低通货膨胀率对美联储的目标2％。经济衰退可能会进一步降低石油需求和价格。

The administration is simultaneously pursuing reduced trade deficits through a broad application of tariffs on “almost all US trade partners.”

通过对“几乎所有美国贸易伙伴”的广泛关税，政府正在同时追求减少贸易赤字。

While intended to rebalance trade relationships, these measures are also “lowering GDP growth estimates,” creating another recessionary pressure.

尽管打算重新平衡贸易关系，但这些措施也“降低了GDP增长估计值”，造成了另一种衰退压力。

Government employment is another target, with plans to cut “tons of government jobs.” The analysis points out that government positions have increased by 2 million over the past 4.5 years and have accounted for much of the recent job growth in the US.

政府就业是另一个目标，计划削减“大量政府工作”。分析指出，在过去的4。5年中，政府职位增加了200万，并且已经占美国最近的大部分工作增长。

Long-Term Gains Through Short-Term Sacrifice

长期通过短期牺牲

The Kobeissi Letter summarizes Trump’s goals as a six-point plan: lower inflation, reduced oil prices, decreased interest rates, less deficit spending, a smaller US trade deficit, and reduced government inefficiency.

Kobeissi信总结了特朗普作为六点计划的目标：降低通货膨胀，降低石油价格，降低利率，减少赤字支出，较小的美国贸易赤字以及降低政府的效率低下。

According to their analysis, “all of these can be obtained by, or are a byproduct of, economic weakness.”

根据他们的分析，“所有这些都可以通过经济弱点的副产品获得，也可以是副产品。”

This suggests the market volatility and potential recession are not unwanted side effects but rather intended catalysts for broader economic restructuring.

这表明市场波动和潜在的衰退不是不必要的副作用，而是预期的催化剂，以进行更广泛的经济重组。

Early signs show partial success with this approach. The 10-year Treasury yield has already fallen approximately 50 basis points from its recent high.

早期迹象通过这种方法显示了部分成功。与最近的高价相比，这项为期10年的财政收益率已经下降了约50个基点。

The labor market strategy also shows this willingness to accept short-term disruption.

劳动力市场战略还表明了这种接受短期破坏的意愿。

By targeting the elimination of government positions, the administration aims to reverse what it views as artificial job growth that has masked underlying economic weakness.

通过以消除政府职位的目标，政府旨在扭转其认为是人为的工作增长，掩盖了基本的经济弱点。