Polymarket 的運動問題

預測市場平台 Polymarket 和 Kalshi 花了大量時間和金錢來說服監管機構他們沒有賭博。

Prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have been facing scrutiny from regulators, with some classifying them as gambling operations. Despite their efforts to highlight their role as investment tools, authorities outside the U.S. have taken steps to restrict access to these platforms.

Polymarket 和 Kalshi 等預測市場平台一直面臨監管機構的審查，一些監管機構將其歸類為賭博業務。儘管他們努力強調其作為投資工具的作用，但美國以外的當局已採取措施限制對這些平台的存取。

Taiwan, France, and Singapore have moved to block users from accessing Polymarket at the ISP level, citing concerns that the platform operates as an unlicensed gambling entity.

台灣、法國和新加坡已採取行動，在 ISP 層級阻止用戶存取 Polymarket，理由是擔心該平台作為未經許可的賭博實體運作。

However, prediction markets are designed to function as instruments for forecasting outcomes based on probabilities, rather than games of chance.

然而，預測市場的目的是作為基於機率而不是機會遊戲來預測結果的工具。

In the U.S., the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFT) has jurisdiction over prediction markets, viewing them as a collection of event contracts, similar to weather derivatives used by farmers to hedge against crop loss.

在美國，商品期貨交易委員會（CFT）對預測市場擁有管轄權，將其視為事件合約的集合，類似於農民用來對沖農作物損失的天氣衍生性商品。

Both Polymarket and Kalshi have engaged in disputes with the CFTC regarding the classification of their platforms. While Kalshi ultimately obtained permission to offer election-based event contracts, Polymarket faced a setback, with U.S. users being blocked from accessing its platform.

Polymarket 和 Kalshi 都曾就其平台的分類問題與 CFTC 發生爭議。雖然 Kalshi 最終獲得了提供基於選舉的活動合約的許可，但 Polymarket 卻遇到了挫折，美國用戶被禁止訪問其平台。

These election-based event contracts played a significant role during the 2024 election, serving as financial instruments to prepare for the post-election market.

這些基於選舉的事件合約在 2024 年選舉期間發揮了重要作用，成為為選舉後市場做準備的金融工具。

For instance, considering Bitcoin's "Trump Bump" during the election, traders could anticipate a price correction if Kamala Harris won, prompting crypto traders to hedge their holdings with prediction market positions.

例如，考慮到比特幣在選舉期間的“川普暴漲”，如果卡馬拉·哈里斯獲勝，交易者可能會預計價格會出現調整，從而促使加密貨幣交易者通過預測市場頭寸對沖其持有的資產。

Despite facing challenges and naysayers predicting its demise post-election, data from Polymarket Analytics showed that the platform continued to thrive, boasting $1.6 billion in monthly volume.

儘管面臨挑戰，反對者預測其在選舉後消亡，但 Polymarket Analytics 的數據顯示，該平台繼續蓬勃發展，每月交易量達到 16 億美元。

A substantial portion of this volume stemmed from sports-themed prediction market contracts, with over $1.1 billion bet on the NFL Super Bowl, $740 million on the Champion's League, and $700 million on the NBA Finals.

其中很大一部分來自以體育為主題的預測市場合同，其中 NFL 超級碗投注超過 11 億美元，冠軍聯賽投注 7.4 億美元，NBA 總決賽投注 7 億美元。

Unlike events such as elections, wars, or corporate acquisitions, the outcome of a sporting event carries no broader financial or societal consequences. This aspect of sports-themed prediction markets aligns them more closely with online sports betting, which has its own distinct regulatory framework.

與選舉、戰爭或公司收購等事件不同，體育賽事的結果不會帶來更廣泛的財務或社會後果。體育主題預測市場的這一方面使它們與線上體育博彩更加緊密地結合在一起，後者有自己獨特的監管框架。

In jurisdictions with licensed online sportsbooks, such as Singapore, the authorities have clear grounds to impose a ban on prediction markets offering sports betting.

在新加坡等擁有線上體育博彩許可的司法管轄區，當局有明確的理由禁止提供體育博彩的預測市場。

Within the U.S., state-level gaming regulators may also turn their attention to these platforms, potentially prompted by the online sports gaming giants that legalized an industry that was once prohibited.

在美國，州級遊戲監管機構也可能將注意力轉向這些平台，這可能是由於線上運動遊戲巨頭將曾經被禁止的行業合法化所致。

Nevertheless, there is still a place for sports-themed prediction market contracts within the broader ecosystem.

儘管如此，以體育為主題的預測市場合約在更廣泛的生態系統中仍然佔有一席之地。

Considering the NFL's broadcasting rights, which are valued at over $100 billion, and the streaming services' attempts to enter the sports market, prediction market contracts pertaining to NFL ratings, for instance, could serve as a valuable tool for equity holders of media companies.

考慮到 NFL 價值超過 1000 億美元的轉播權，以及串流媒體服務進入體育市場的嘗試，與 NFL 收視率相關的預測市場合約可以成為媒體公司股權持有人的寶貴工具。

These contracts can help them gauge the return on their investments in broadcasting rights and identify other potential opportunities or applications. Or, as a final note, Polymarket could simply relocate to Canada, where Ontario permits both political and sports betting. Sometimes, the wisest wager is on a change of scenery, and there's not a prediction market for that just yet.

這些合約可以幫助他們衡量廣播權投資的回報，並確定其他潛在的機會或應用。或者，最後一點，Polymarket 可以簡單地搬到加拿大，因為安大略省允許政治和體育博彩。有時，最明智的賭注是換個環境，但目前還沒有這樣的預測市場。