Polymarket 的体育问题

预测市场平台 Polymarket 和 Kalshi 花费了大量时间和金钱来说服监管机构他们没有赌博。

Prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have been facing scrutiny from regulators, with some classifying them as gambling operations. Despite their efforts to highlight their role as investment tools, authorities outside the U.S. have taken steps to restrict access to these platforms.

Polymarket 和 Kalshi 等预测市场平台一直面临监管机构的审查，一些监管机构将其归类为赌博业务。尽管他们努力强调其作为投资工具的作用，但美国以外的当局已采取措施限制对这些平台的访问。

Taiwan, France, and Singapore have moved to block users from accessing Polymarket at the ISP level, citing concerns that the platform operates as an unlicensed gambling entity.

台湾、法国和新加坡已采取行动，在 ISP 层面阻止用户访问 Polymarket，理由是担心该平台作为未经许可的赌博实体运营。

However, prediction markets are designed to function as instruments for forecasting outcomes based on probabilities, rather than games of chance.

然而，预测市场的目的是作为基于概率而不是机会游戏来预测结果的工具。

In the U.S., the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFT) has jurisdiction over prediction markets, viewing them as a collection of event contracts, similar to weather derivatives used by farmers to hedge against crop loss.

在美国，商品期货交易委员会（CFT）对预测市场拥有管辖权，将其视为事件合约的集合，类似于农民用来对冲农作物损失的天气衍生品。

Both Polymarket and Kalshi have engaged in disputes with the CFTC regarding the classification of their platforms. While Kalshi ultimately obtained permission to offer election-based event contracts, Polymarket faced a setback, with U.S. users being blocked from accessing its platform.

Polymarket 和 Kalshi 都曾就其平台的分类问题与 CFTC 发生争议。虽然 Kalshi 最终获得了提供基于选举的活动合同的许可，但 Polymarket 却遇到了挫折，美国用户被禁止访问其平台。

These election-based event contracts played a significant role during the 2024 election, serving as financial instruments to prepare for the post-election market.

这些基于选举的事件合约在 2024 年选举期间发挥了重要作用，成为为选举后市场做准备的金融工具。

For instance, considering Bitcoin's "Trump Bump" during the election, traders could anticipate a price correction if Kamala Harris won, prompting crypto traders to hedge their holdings with prediction market positions.

例如，考虑到比特币在选举期间的“特朗普暴涨”，如果卡马拉·哈里斯获胜，交易者可能会预计价格会出现调整，从而促使加密货币交易者通过预测市场头寸对冲其持有的资产。

Despite facing challenges and naysayers predicting its demise post-election, data from Polymarket Analytics showed that the platform continued to thrive, boasting $1.6 billion in monthly volume.

尽管面临挑战，反对者预测其在选举后消亡，但 Polymarket Analytics 的数据显示，该平台继续蓬勃发展，月交易量达到 16 亿美元。

A substantial portion of this volume stemmed from sports-themed prediction market contracts, with over $1.1 billion bet on the NFL Super Bowl, $740 million on the Champion's League, and $700 million on the NBA Finals.

其中很大一部分来自以体育为主题的预测市场合同，其中 NFL 超级碗投注超过 11 亿美元，冠军联赛投注 7.4 亿美元，NBA 总决赛投注 7 亿美元。

Unlike events such as elections, wars, or corporate acquisitions, the outcome of a sporting event carries no broader financial or societal consequences. This aspect of sports-themed prediction markets aligns them more closely with online sports betting, which has its own distinct regulatory framework.

与选举、战争或公司收购等事件不同，体育赛事的结果不会带来更广泛的财务或社会影响。体育主题预测市场的这一方面使它们与在线体育博彩更加紧密地结合在一起，后者有自己独特的监管框架。

In jurisdictions with licensed online sportsbooks, such as Singapore, the authorities have clear grounds to impose a ban on prediction markets offering sports betting.

在新加坡等拥有在线体育博彩许可的司法管辖区，当局有明确的理由禁止提供体育博彩的预测市场。

Within the U.S., state-level gaming regulators may also turn their attention to these platforms, potentially prompted by the online sports gaming giants that legalized an industry that was once prohibited.

在美国，州级游戏监管机构也可能将注意力转向这些平台，这可能是由于在线体育游戏巨头将曾经被禁止的行业合法化所致。

Nevertheless, there is still a place for sports-themed prediction market contracts within the broader ecosystem.

尽管如此，以体育为主题的预测市场合约在更广泛的生态系统中仍然占有一席之地。

Considering the NFL's broadcasting rights, which are valued at over $100 billion, and the streaming services' attempts to enter the sports market, prediction market contracts pertaining to NFL ratings, for instance, could serve as a valuable tool for equity holders of media companies.

考虑到 NFL 价值超过 1000 亿美元的转播权，以及流媒体服务进军体育市场的尝试，与 NFL 收视率相关的预测市场合同可以成为媒体公司股权持有人的宝贵工具。

These contracts can help them gauge the return on their investments in broadcasting rights and identify other potential opportunities or applications. Or, as a final note, Polymarket could simply relocate to Canada, where Ontario permits both political and sports betting. Sometimes, the wisest wager is on a change of scenery, and there's not a prediction market for that just yet.

这些合同可以帮助他们衡量广播权投资的回报，并确定其他潜在的机会或应用。或者，最后一点，Polymarket 可以简单地搬到加拿大，因为安大略省允许政治和体育博彩。有时，最明智的赌注是换个环境，但目前还没有这样的预测市场。