MOVE：可以預測比特幣（BTC）價格的指數

這就是所謂的MOVE指數，也就是美國債券市場選擇權波動率預估指數。它是衡量每日波動性的指數

There is an index that seems to be able to help identify some movements in the price of Bitcoin in advance.

有一個指數似乎能夠幫助提前識別比特幣價格的一些變動。

At the base of this (inverse) correlation, however, there is no clear dynamic, but only the observation that in the past it has already happened several times that a movement in one direction of this index was followed a few days later by a movement in the opposite direction of the price of Bitcoin.

然而，在這種（逆）相關性的基礎上，並沒有明顯的動態，而只是觀察到，在過去，該指數朝一個方向的變動已經發生了好幾次，幾天后又發生了變動與比特幣價格的方向相反。

This, for example, also happened this week.

例如，這也發生在本週。

Therefore, monitoring this index does not provide certainty regarding the future movements of the Bitcoin price, but in certain situations, it can give some additional indication.

因此，監控該指數並不能提供比特幣價格未來走勢的確定性，但在某些情況下，它可以提供一些額外的指示。

MOVE: the index that can anticipate the price of Bitcoin (BTC)

MOVE：可以預測比特幣（BTC）價格的指數

This is the so-called MOVE index, which is the U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index.

這就是所謂的MOVE指數，也就是美國債券市場選擇權波動率預估指數。

It is an index that measures daily volatility in the American bond market.

它是衡量美國債券市場每日波動性的指數。

This index was originally devised by Merrill Lynch to measure fear in the U.S. bond market.

該指數最初由美林公司設計，旨在衡量美國債券市場的恐懼程度。

For the stock market, there is another volatility index, the famous VIX, while for the bond market, there is the MOVE.

對於股票市場來說，還有另一個波動性指數，就是著名的VIX，而對債券市場來說，還有MOVE。

In 2019 the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate became the ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index, while still retaining the acronym MOVE.

2019 年，美林選擇權波動率估計成為 ICE BofAML 美國債券市場選擇權波動性估計指數，同時仍保留縮寫 MOVE。

In particular, it measures the volatility on options traded on US Treasury Bonds. It is used as a parameter to monitor the perception of risk and to understand how the sentiment of operators in the US bond market tends to move.

特別是，它衡量美國國債交易選擇權的波動性。它被用作監控風險認知並了解美國債券市場運營商情緒走勢的參數。

Technically, it tracks the movement of the implied volatility of the returns of the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year US Treasury from the 1-month option prices.

從技術上講，它追蹤 2 年期、5 年期、10 年期和 30 年期美國公債回報率與 1 個月選擇權價格的隱含波動率的變動。

What is the purpose of the MOVE index

MOVE指數的目的是什麼

Since the implied volatility corresponds to the cost of insurance, the MOVE also measures the willingness of investors to purchase risk insurance. Therefore, the lower it is, the lower the demand for protection from risks.

由於隱含波動率對應於保險成本，因此MOVE也衡量投資者購買風險保險的意願。因此，它越低，抵禦風險的需求就越低。

This index was created in the 1990s to provide a signal of the change in risk sentiment in the fixed income market.

該指數創建於 20 世紀 90 年代，旨在提供固定收益市場風險情緒變化的訊號。

In particular, unlike the VIX, the MOVE index can increase even if the underlying (the Treasury) moves in both directions. The VIX, on the other hand, usually increases when the S&P 500 index drops significantly.

特別是，與 VIX 不同的是，即使標的資產（美國國債）雙向波動，MOVE 指數也會上漲。另一方面，當標準普爾 500 指數大幅下跌時，VIX 通常會上升。

However, since it is not an infallible indicator, the MOVE index cannot be considered a predictive index, so much so that it is not closely followed by bull and bear market operators.

然而，由於它不是一個萬無一失的指標，MOVE指數不能被視為一個預測指數，以至於它沒有受到牛市和熊市操作者的密切關注。

The values of this index tend to move between 80 and 120, with 80 representing a situation of substantial absence of fear, while 120 represents a sentiment of extreme fear. However, movements towards the extremes are quite rare.

此指數的數值往往在80到120之間波動，其中80代表基本上不存在恐懼的情況，而120則代表極度恐懼的情緒。然而，走向極端的運動相當罕見。

The apparent inverse correlation with the price of Bitcoin

與比特幣價格明顯的負相關

The apparent inverse correlation between the trend of the MOVE index and the price of Bitcoin was discovered by the journalist from Sole 24 Ore, Vito Lops.

MOVE指數的走勢與比特幣價格之間明顯的負相關關係是由Sole 24 Ore的記者Vito Lops發現的。

To detect this apparent correlation, it is necessary to specify that while the price of BTC moves minute by minute (or rather, second by second), the MOVE index is instead calculated only once a day, at the close of the stock market session.

為了檢測這種明顯的相關性，有必要指定雖然 BTC 的價格每分鐘（或更確切地說，每秒）移動，但 MOVE 指數僅在股票市場收盤時每天計算一次。

Therefore, the comparison can only be made on charts with daily candles.

因此，只能在有每日蠟燭圖的圖表上進行比較。

Starting from 2017, it is discovered that while the MOVE index was falling from 82.5 points to 46 points, the price of Bitcoin was rising from $1,000 to almost $20,000.

從2017年開始，人們發現，雖然MOVE指數從82.5點下降到46點，但比特幣的價格卻從1,000美元上漲到近2,000美元。

Subsequently, between 2018 and 2019 the MOVE index returned above 65 points, while the price of Bitcoin was in a full bear-market.

隨後，2018年至2019年間，MOVE指數重回65點以上，而比特幣價格則是全面熊市。

Between 2020 and 2021, leaving aside the moment when the markets collapsed due to the start of the pandemic, the MOVE index also fell below 40 points, and Bitcoin experienced another great bullrun.

2020年至2021年間，拋開因疫情爆發導致市場崩盤的那段時間，MOVE指數也跌破40點，比特幣又經歷了一次大牛市。

In 2022, however, the MOVE index rose significantly, up to over 150 points, just as BTC was once again ending up in a heavy bear-market.

然而到了 2022 年，MOVE 指數大幅上漲，漲幅超過 150 點，而此時 BTC 再次陷入熊市。

Since then, it first dropped to 83 points, while Bitcoin was rebounding, and then in recent months it climbed back above 116.

此後，它首先跌至 83 點，而比特幣則在反彈，然後近幾個月又回升至 116 點以上。

The lead of the MOVE index over the price of Bitcoin (BTC)

MOVE 指數領先比特幣 (BTC) 價格

All of this is certainly interesting, but it is even more interesting that when MOVE and Bitcoin move in opposite directions, often MOVE moves first and then Bitcoin.

這一切當然很有趣，但更有趣的是，當MOVE和比特幣朝相反方向移動時，往往是MOVE先移動，然後是比特幣。

For example, after the close of the stock market session on Monday, a strong increase in the MOVE index was observed in a short time, because it went from 100 points in the previous session (Friday) to 124 points.

例如，週一股市收盤後，MOVE指數在短時間內出現強勁上漲，從前一交易日（週五）的100點升至124點。

On Monday, the price of Bitcoin had indeed fallen, but it remained above the

週一，比特幣價格確實下跌，但仍維持在