MOVE：可以预测比特币（BTC）价格的指数

这就是所谓的MOVE指数，即美国债券市场期权波动率预估指数。它是衡量每日波动性的指数

There is an index that seems to be able to help identify some movements in the price of Bitcoin in advance.

有一个指数似乎能够帮助提前识别比特币价格的一些变动。

At the base of this (inverse) correlation, however, there is no clear dynamic, but only the observation that in the past it has already happened several times that a movement in one direction of this index was followed a few days later by a movement in the opposite direction of the price of Bitcoin.

然而，在这种（逆）相关性的基础上，并没有明显的动态，而只是观察到，在过去，该指数朝一个方向的变动已经发生了好几次，几天后又发生了变动与比特币价格的方向相反。

This, for example, also happened this week.

例如，这也发生在本周。

Therefore, monitoring this index does not provide certainty regarding the future movements of the Bitcoin price, but in certain situations, it can give some additional indication.

因此，监控该指数并不能提供比特币价格未来走势的确定性，但在某些情况下，它可以提供一些额外的指示。

MOVE: the index that can anticipate the price of Bitcoin (BTC)

MOVE：可以预测比特币（BTC）价格的指数

This is the so-called MOVE index, which is the U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index.

这就是所谓的MOVE指数，即美国债券市场期权波动率预估指数。

It is an index that measures daily volatility in the American bond market.

它是衡量美国债券市场每日波动性的指数。

This index was originally devised by Merrill Lynch to measure fear in the U.S. bond market.

该指数最初由美林公司设计，旨在衡量美国债券市场的恐惧程度。

For the stock market, there is another volatility index, the famous VIX, while for the bond market, there is the MOVE.

对于股票市场来说，还有另一个波动率指数，就是著名的VIX，而对于债券市场来说，还有MOVE。

In 2019 the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate became the ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index, while still retaining the acronym MOVE.

2019 年，美林期权波动率估计成为 ICE BofAML 美国债券市场期权波动率估计指数，同时仍保留缩写 MOVE。

In particular, it measures the volatility on options traded on US Treasury Bonds. It is used as a parameter to monitor the perception of risk and to understand how the sentiment of operators in the US bond market tends to move.

特别是，它衡量美国国债交易期权的波动性。它被用作监控风险认知并了解美国债券市场运营商情绪走势的参数。

Technically, it tracks the movement of the implied volatility of the returns of the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year US Treasury from the 1-month option prices.

从技术上讲，它跟踪 2 年期、5 年期、10 年期和 30 年期美国国债回报率与 1 个月期权价格的隐含波动率的变动。

What is the purpose of the MOVE index

MOVE指数的目的是什么

Since the implied volatility corresponds to the cost of insurance, the MOVE also measures the willingness of investors to purchase risk insurance. Therefore, the lower it is, the lower the demand for protection from risks.

由于隐含波动率对应于保险成本，因此MOVE还衡量投资者购买风险保险的意愿。因此，它越低，抵御风险的需求就越低。

This index was created in the 1990s to provide a signal of the change in risk sentiment in the fixed income market.

该指数创建于 20 世纪 90 年代，旨在提供固定收益市场风险情绪变化的信号。

In particular, unlike the VIX, the MOVE index can increase even if the underlying (the Treasury) moves in both directions. The VIX, on the other hand, usually increases when the S&P 500 index drops significantly.

特别是，与 VIX 不同的是，即使标的资产（美国国债）双向波动，MOVE 指数也会上涨。另一方面，当标准普尔 500 指数大幅下跌时，VIX 通常会上升。

However, since it is not an infallible indicator, the MOVE index cannot be considered a predictive index, so much so that it is not closely followed by bull and bear market operators.

然而，由于它不是一个万无一失的指标，MOVE指数不能被视为一个预测指数，以至于它没有受到牛市和熊市操作者的密切关注。

The values of this index tend to move between 80 and 120, with 80 representing a situation of substantial absence of fear, while 120 represents a sentiment of extreme fear. However, movements towards the extremes are quite rare.

该指数的数值往往在80到120之间波动，其中80代表基本不存在恐惧的情况，而120则代表极度恐惧的情绪。然而，走向极端的运动相当罕见。

The apparent inverse correlation with the price of Bitcoin

与比特币价格明显的负相关

The apparent inverse correlation between the trend of the MOVE index and the price of Bitcoin was discovered by the journalist from Sole 24 Ore, Vito Lops.

MOVE指数的走势与比特币价格之间明显的负相关关系是由Sole 24 Ore的记者Vito Lops发现的。

To detect this apparent correlation, it is necessary to specify that while the price of BTC moves minute by minute (or rather, second by second), the MOVE index is instead calculated only once a day, at the close of the stock market session.

为了检测这种明显的相关性，有必要指定虽然 BTC 的价格每分钟（或者更确切地说，每秒）移动，但 MOVE 指数仅在股票市场收盘时每天计算一次。

Therefore, the comparison can only be made on charts with daily candles.

因此，只能在带有每日蜡烛图的图表上进行比较。

Starting from 2017, it is discovered that while the MOVE index was falling from 82.5 points to 46 points, the price of Bitcoin was rising from $1,000 to almost $20,000.

从2017年开始，人们发现，虽然MOVE指数从82.5点下降到46点，但比特币的价格却从1000美元上涨到近20000美元。

Subsequently, between 2018 and 2019 the MOVE index returned above 65 points, while the price of Bitcoin was in a full bear-market.

随后，2018年至2019年间，MOVE指数重回65点以上，而比特币价格则处于全面熊市。

Between 2020 and 2021, leaving aside the moment when the markets collapsed due to the start of the pandemic, the MOVE index also fell below 40 points, and Bitcoin experienced another great bullrun.

2020年至2021年间，抛开因疫情爆发导致市场崩盘的那段时间，MOVE指数也跌破40点，比特币又经历了一次大牛市。

In 2022, however, the MOVE index rose significantly, up to over 150 points, just as BTC was once again ending up in a heavy bear-market.

然而到了 2022 年，MOVE 指数大幅上涨，涨幅超过 150 点，而此时 BTC 再次陷入熊市。

Since then, it first dropped to 83 points, while Bitcoin was rebounding, and then in recent months it climbed back above 116.

此后，它首先跌至 83 点，而比特币则在反弹，然后近几个月又回升至 116 点以上。

The lead of the MOVE index over the price of Bitcoin (BTC)

MOVE 指数领先于比特币 (BTC) 价格

All of this is certainly interesting, but it is even more interesting that when MOVE and Bitcoin move in opposite directions, often MOVE moves first and then Bitcoin.

所有这一切当然很有趣，但更有趣的是，当MOVE和比特币朝相反方向移动时，往往是MOVE先移动，然后是比特币。

For example, after the close of the stock market session on Monday, a strong increase in the MOVE index was observed in a short time, because it went from 100 points in the previous session (Friday) to 124 points.

例如，周一股市收盘后，MOVE指数在短时间内出现强劲上涨，从前一交易日（周五）的100点升至124点。

On Monday, the price of Bitcoin had indeed fallen, but it remained above the

周一，比特币价格确实下跌，但仍维持在