Morgan Creek 執行長預測，在減半和需求成長的推動下，比特幣年內將飆升至 15 萬美元

摩根溪資本管理公司執行長馬克尤斯科 (Mark Yusko) 預測，明年比特幣的價值可能會升至 15 萬美元。他的預測是基於梅特卡夫定律和即將到來的減半事件，這將減少開採新區塊的獎勵。 Yusko 預計，由於序數和銘文的額外交易費用，減半後比特幣的公允價值將調整至 75,000 美元。他認為減半後價格飆升的歷史模式可能會推動價格使其公允價值翻倍，達到 15 萬美元的預測目標。

Morgan Creek CEO Predicts Six-Figure Surge for Bitcoin within a Year, Citing Halving and Growing Demand

Morgan Creek 執行長預測比特幣價格將在一年內飆升六位數，理由是減半和需求成長

In a recent interview on CNBC's "Fast Money," Mark Yusko, founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, presented a bullish forecast for the cryptocurrency market, predicting a significant rise in Bitcoin's value within the next year.

摩根溪資本管理公司創始人兼首席執行官馬克·尤斯科(Mark Yusko)最近在接受CNBC“快錢”採訪時，對加密貨幣市場做出了看漲的預測，預計明年比特幣價值將大幅上漲。

Bitcoin on an Upward Trajectory

比特幣處於上升軌道

Yusko's anticipation for Bitcoin is remarkably optimistic, projecting a potential surge to $150,000 by this time next year. His projection is based on a mathematical model that applies Metcalfe's Law, a principle that establishes a relationship between a network's value and the number of its users. This analysis puts Bitcoin's current fair value at approximately $50,000.

Yusko 對比特幣的預期非常樂觀，預計明年這個時候比特幣的價格可能會飆升至 15 萬美元。他的預測是基於應用梅特卡夫定律的數學模型，該定律建立了網路價值與其用戶數量之間的關係。該分析認為比特幣目前的公允價值約為 5 萬美元。

The imminent halving event, expected around April 20, 2024, is seen as a catalyst for Bitcoin's value adjustment. The halving event refers to a scheduled reduction in the reward for mining new blocks on the Bitcoin blockchain, which is expected to occur every four years. Yusko anticipates that this reduction in rewards will trigger an upward adjustment in Bitcoin's fair value.

預計將於 2024 年 4 月 20 日左右即將到來的減半事件被視為比特幣價值調整的催化劑。減半事件是指按計畫減少在比特幣區塊鏈上挖掘新區塊的獎勵，預計每四年發生一次。 Yusko 預計，獎勵的減少將引發比特幣公允價值的上調。

Additionally, the introduction of new revenue streams such as transaction fees from ordinals and inscriptions, which allow users to inscribe data onto the Bitcoin blockchain, suggest a post-halving fair value adjustment to $75,000.

此外，新收入來源的引入，例如序號和銘文的交易費用，允許用戶將數據銘文到比特幣區塊鏈上，建議減半後公允價值調整至 75,000 美元。

Yusko believes that historical patterns post-halving indicate a surge in interest and investment, potentially driving the price to double its fair value. This historical pattern, coupled with the aforementioned factors, culminates in Yusko's $150,000 target for Bitcoin.

Yusko 認為，減半後的歷史模式顯示興趣和投資激增，可能推動價格使其公允價值翻倍。這種歷史模式，加上上述因素，最終導致 Yusko 將比特幣目標定為 15 萬美元。

Factors Fueling the Surge

推動激增的因素

Yusko elaborates on the mechanics expected to fuel this price surge. According to the Morgan Creek CEO, the upcoming halving will slash the daily supply of new coins from 900 to 450, while simultaneously there will be an anticipated increase in demand, partially driven by the US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. This anticipated imbalance between supply and demand is projected to escalate the price of Bitcoin.

尤斯科詳細闡述了預計推動價格飆升的機制。 Morgan Creek 執行長表示，即將到來的減半將使新幣的每日供應量從 900 枚削減至 450 枚，同時預期需求也會增加，部分原因是美國上市的現貨比特幣 ETF 的推動。這種預期的供需失衡預計將導致比特幣的價格上漲。

Yusko envisions a more exponential growth towards the end of the year, with historical trends suggesting a peak around nine months post-halving, potentially aligning with the holiday season.

Yusko 預計到年底將出現更指數級的增長，歷史趨勢表明減半後九個月左右將達到峰值，可能與假期季節一致。

Beyond Bitcoin

超越比特幣

While Bitcoin remains the focal point of Yusko's analysis, he also delves into other aspects of the crypto ecosystem. He discusses the impact of regulatory challenges on the market and highlights his interest in mining companies and chip makers like AMD and Nvidia. Despite high valuations in these areas, Yusko sees significant potential for growth.

雖然比特幣仍然是 Yusko 分析的焦點，但他也深入研究了加密生態系統的其他方面。他討論了監管挑戰對市場的影響，並強調了他對 AMD 和 Nvidia 等礦業公司和晶片製造商的興趣。儘管這些領域的估值很高，但尤斯科仍看到了巨大的成長潛力。

At Morgan Creek Digital, Yusko's company focuses on investing in private companies within the crypto sector, with liquid tokens comprising a smaller portion of their portfolio. Beyond Bitcoin, Yusko expresses optimism about the prospects of Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche, among others. Despite Bitcoin's dominance and its characterization as a superior form of digital gold, he believes in the exponential growth potential of smaller projects.

在 Morgan Creek Digital，Yusko 的公司專注於投資加密貨幣領域的私人公司，流動性代幣只佔其投資組合的一小部分。除了比特幣之外，Yusko 對以太坊、Solana 和 Avalanche 等的前景表示樂觀。儘管比特幣佔據主導地位，並被描述為一種高級形式的數位黃金，但他相信小型項目的指數增長潛力。

Yusko reveals Morgan Creek Digital's approach to investment in the crypto space, aligning more with a venture capital model than active trading. Their strategy predominantly involves long-term holding, though they strategically exit positions in response to specific developments, as seen

Yusko 揭示了 Morgan Creek Digital 在加密貨幣領域的投資方法，更多地與創投模型保持一致，而不是活躍交易。他們的策略主要涉及長期持有，儘管他們會根據具體事態發展策略性地退出頭寸，如圖所示