Morgan Creek 首席执行官预测，在减半和需求增长的推动下，比特币年内将飙升至 15 万美元

摩根溪资本管理公司首席执行官马克·尤斯科 (Mark Yusko) 预测，明年比特币的价值可能会升至 15 万美元。他的预测是基于梅特卡夫定律和即将到来的减半事件，这将减少开采新区块的奖励。 Yusko 预计，由于序数和铭文的额外交易费用，减半后比特币的公允价值将调整至 75,000 美元。他认为减半后价格飙升的历史模式可能会推动价格使其公允价值翻倍，从而达到 150,000 美元的预测目标。

Morgan Creek CEO Predicts Six-Figure Surge for Bitcoin within a Year, Citing Halving and Growing Demand

Morgan Creek 首席执行官预测比特币价格将在一年内飙升六位数，理由是减半和需求增长

In a recent interview on CNBC's "Fast Money," Mark Yusko, founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, presented a bullish forecast for the cryptocurrency market, predicting a significant rise in Bitcoin's value within the next year.

摩根溪资本管理公司创始人兼首席执行官马克·尤斯科(Mark Yusko)最近在接受CNBC“快钱”采访时，对加密货币市场做出了看涨的预测，预计明年比特币价值将大幅上涨。

Bitcoin on an Upward Trajectory

比特币处于上升轨道

Yusko's anticipation for Bitcoin is remarkably optimistic, projecting a potential surge to $150,000 by this time next year. His projection is based on a mathematical model that applies Metcalfe's Law, a principle that establishes a relationship between a network's value and the number of its users. This analysis puts Bitcoin's current fair value at approximately $50,000.

Yusko 对比特币的预期非常乐观，预计明年这个时候比特币的价格可能会飙升至 15 万美元。他的预测基于应用梅特卡夫定律的数学模型，该定律建立了网络价值与其用户数量之间的关系。该分析认为比特币当前的公允价值约为 50,000 美元。

The imminent halving event, expected around April 20, 2024, is seen as a catalyst for Bitcoin's value adjustment. The halving event refers to a scheduled reduction in the reward for mining new blocks on the Bitcoin blockchain, which is expected to occur every four years. Yusko anticipates that this reduction in rewards will trigger an upward adjustment in Bitcoin's fair value.

预计将于 2024 年 4 月 20 日左右即将到来的减半事件被视为比特币价值调整的催化剂。减半事件是指按计划减少在比特币区块链上挖掘新区块的奖励，预计每四年发生一次。 Yusko 预计，奖励的减少将引发比特币公允价值的上调。

Additionally, the introduction of new revenue streams such as transaction fees from ordinals and inscriptions, which allow users to inscribe data onto the Bitcoin blockchain, suggest a post-halving fair value adjustment to $75,000.

此外，新收入来源的引入，例如序号和铭文的交易费用，允许用户将数据铭文到比特币区块链上，建议减半后公允价值调整至 75,000 美元。

Yusko believes that historical patterns post-halving indicate a surge in interest and investment, potentially driving the price to double its fair value. This historical pattern, coupled with the aforementioned factors, culminates in Yusko's $150,000 target for Bitcoin.

Yusko 认为，减半后的历史模式表明兴趣和投资激增，可能推动价格使其公允价值翻倍。这种历史模式，加上上述因素，最终导致 Yusko 将比特币目标定为 15 万美元。

Factors Fueling the Surge

推动激增的因素

Yusko elaborates on the mechanics expected to fuel this price surge. According to the Morgan Creek CEO, the upcoming halving will slash the daily supply of new coins from 900 to 450, while simultaneously there will be an anticipated increase in demand, partially driven by the US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. This anticipated imbalance between supply and demand is projected to escalate the price of Bitcoin.

尤斯科详细阐述了预计推动价格飙升的机制。 Morgan Creek 首席执行官表示，即将到来的减半将使新币的每日供应量从 900 枚削减至 450 枚，同时预期需求也会增加，部分原因是美国上市的现货比特币 ETF 的推动。这种预期的供需失衡预计将导致比特币的价格上涨。

Yusko envisions a more exponential growth towards the end of the year, with historical trends suggesting a peak around nine months post-halving, potentially aligning with the holiday season.

Yusko 预计到年底将出现更加指数级的增长，历史趋势表明减半后九个月左右将达到峰值，可能与假期季节一致。

Beyond Bitcoin

超越比特币

While Bitcoin remains the focal point of Yusko's analysis, he also delves into other aspects of the crypto ecosystem. He discusses the impact of regulatory challenges on the market and highlights his interest in mining companies and chip makers like AMD and Nvidia. Despite high valuations in these areas, Yusko sees significant potential for growth.

虽然比特币仍然是 Yusko 分析的焦点，但他还深入研究了加密生态系统的其他方面。他讨论了监管挑战对市场的影响，并强调了他对 AMD 和 Nvidia 等矿业公司和芯片制造商的兴趣。尽管这些领域的估值很高，但尤斯科仍看到了巨大的增长潜力。

At Morgan Creek Digital, Yusko's company focuses on investing in private companies within the crypto sector, with liquid tokens comprising a smaller portion of their portfolio. Beyond Bitcoin, Yusko expresses optimism about the prospects of Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche, among others. Despite Bitcoin's dominance and its characterization as a superior form of digital gold, he believes in the exponential growth potential of smaller projects.

在 Morgan Creek Digital，Yusko 的公司专注于投资加密货币领域的私营公司，流动性代币只占其投资组合的一小部分。除了比特币之外，Yusko 对以太坊、Solana 和 Avalanche 等的前景表示乐观。尽管比特币占据主导地位，并且被描述为一种高级形式的数字黄金，但他相信小型项目的指数增长潜力。

Yusko reveals Morgan Creek Digital's approach to investment in the crypto space, aligning more with a venture capital model than active trading. Their strategy predominantly involves long-term holding, though they strategically exit positions in response to specific developments, as seen

Yusko 揭示了 Morgan Creek Digital 在加密货币领域的投资方法，更多地与风险投资模型保持一致，而不是活跃交易。他们的策略主要涉及长期持有，尽管他们会根据具体事态发展战略性地退出头寸，如图所示