國際貨幣基金組織預測墨西哥經濟將持續放緩

預計2025年成長率為1.3%，此後IMF預測2024年墨西哥經濟將成長1.5%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its 2025 outlook for Mexico, predicting a slowdown in the country's economic growth. The report, which follows the IMF's routine ‘Article IV’ assessment of the Mexican economy, warns that Mexico needs to be prepared for slower global growth.

國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）發布了墨西哥2025年展望，預計該國經濟成長將放緩。該報告是在國際貨幣基金組織對墨西哥經濟進行例行「第四條」評估之後發布的，警告墨西哥需要為全球經濟成長放緩做好準備。

According to the outlook, Mexico's economic growth is projected to reach 1.3% in 2025, following an anticipated growth of 1.5% in 2024. This slowdown is attributed to several factors, including capacity limitations, monetary policies, and external influences.

根據展望，墨西哥經濟成長預計將在2024年成長1.5%之後，在2025年達到1.3%。

The report highlights the Mexican government's adoption of an expansionary fiscal policy, which is seen as a negative factor. However, it also notes that growth is being moderated by capacity constraints and the high interest rate regime maintained by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) in its fight against inflation.

報告強調了墨西哥政府採取的擴張性財政政策，這被視為一個負面因素。然而，報告也指出，由於產能限制和墨西哥銀行（Banxico）為對抗通貨膨脹而維持的高利率制度，經濟成長正在放緩。

The IMF anticipates that Banxico's monetary policy tightening and the deceleration in activity will lead to inflation converging to the central bank's target of 3% by 2025.

國際貨幣基金組織預計，墨西哥央行的貨幣政策緊縮和經濟活動放緩將導致通膨到 2025 年接近央行 3% 的目標。

Furthermore, the outlook estimates a slight increase in the current account deficit in 2024, due to a faster growth in investment and consumption-related import volumes compared to exports. This imbalance could put pressure on Mexico's external sustainability and potentially affect the stability of its currency.

此外，由於投資和消費相關的進口量比出口量成長更快，展望預計 2024 年經常帳赤字將略有增加。這種失衡可能會對墨西哥的外部永續性造成壓力，並可能影響其貨幣的穩定性。

The report also identifies several risks to Mexico's economic outlook. On the downside, risks include a downturn in the US market, which is Mexico's main trading partner and pembeli of half of its exports, could negatively impact Mexican exports and economic growth. Additionally, higher global risk aversion or unanticipated effects from recent institutional changes may also exert a negative influence on output and investors.

該報告還指出了墨西哥經濟前景面臨的一些風險。不利的一面是，風險包括墨西哥主要貿易夥伴美國市場的低迷，以及佔其出口一半的彭貝利，可能對墨西哥的出口和經濟成長產生負面影響。此外，全球風險厭惡情緒上升或近期制度變化帶來的意外影響也可能對產出和投資者產生負面影響。

However, the IMF also notes potential upside risks. These include positive surprises in import demand from the US or the ongoing reshuffling of value-added production networks, which could offset the negative factors mentioned above.

然而，國際貨幣基金組織也注意到潛在的上行風險。其中包括美國進口需求的意外積極或增值生產網絡的持續重組，這可能會抵消上述負面因素。

Another aspect examined by the IMF is Mexico's fiscal situation. The general consolidated budget deficit is expected to reach 5.9% of GDP in 2024, which would translate to a fiscal stimulus of about 2% of GDP.

國際貨幣基金組織審查的另一個面向是墨西哥的財政狀況。預計到 2024 年，綜合預算赤字將達到 GDP 的 5.9%，這意味著財政刺激將達到 GDP 的 2% 左右。

This expansionary fiscal stance is projected to increase the gross public sector borrowing requirement to around 57.8% of GDP by the end of 2024.

預計到 2024 年底，這種擴張性財政立場將使公共部門總借貸需求增加至 GDP 的 57.8% 左右。

According to the IMF, there is a possibility of a small fiscal slippage by year-end, due to either increased support for Pemex, a state ABS, or higher spending on infrastructure projects than initially estimated.

國際貨幣基金組織表示，由於對墨西哥國家石油公司（國家資產支持證券）的支持增加，或基礎設施項目支出高於最初估計，到年底財政可能會出現小幅下滑。

In line with its assessment of fiscal policy, the IMF provides recommendations for Mexico, focusing on the development of a realistic and sustainable medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy.

根據其對財政政策的評估，國際貨幣基金組織為墨西哥提供了建議，重點是製定現實且可持續的中期財政整頓策略。

The new government plans to begin a gradual fiscal tightening in 2025 to reduce the deficit below 3 percent of GDP in the medium run. This plan, according to the IMF, should be based on well-specified policy measures and could be complemented by a comprehensive and well-designed tax reform.

新政府計劃從2025年開始逐步實施財政緊縮，中期將赤字削減至GDP的3%以下。國際貨幣基金組織表示，該計畫應以明確的政策措施為基礎，並輔以全面且精心設計的稅收改革。

Specifically, regarding the revenue side for 2025, the IMF recommends cutting tax expenditures and reconsidering the taxation rates and bands, especially for the personal income tax (PIT).

具體而言，關於2025年的收入方面，國際貨幣基金組織建議削減稅收支出並重新考慮稅率和稅率，特別是個人所得稅（PIT）。

Other areas that could be rationalized to generate revenue for necessary fiscal adjustment and bolster market confidence include a broader assessment of tax exemptions and improvement in the tax administration system.

其他可以合理化以產生收入以進行必要的財政調整並增強市場信心的領域包括更廣泛的免稅評估和改善稅收管理系統。

Throughout this process, the government's ability to implement credible fiscal consolidation while mitigating economic downturns will be crucial for Mexico.

在整個過程中，政府在緩解經濟衰退的同時實施可靠的財政整頓的能力對墨西哥至關重要。

These projections underscore the importance of a sound policy mix in an IMF member country to achieve sustainable rates of economic growth and maintain fiscal and monetary discipline.

這些預測強調了國際貨幣基金組織成員國良好的政策組合對於實現永續經濟成長率和維持財政和貨幣紀律的重要性。

The coming months will be critical for the new Mexico administration as the country prepares to navigate both internal and external challenges and begins to execute its economic plan.

未來幾個月對墨西哥新政府來說至關重要，因為該國準備應對內部和外部挑戰並開始執行其經濟計劃。

The outcome of these actions will be closely followed by Mexico, its trade partners, and other stakeholders in the LAC region.

墨西哥、其貿易夥伴以及拉丁美洲和加勒比地區的其他利益相關者將密切關注這些行動的結果。