国际货币基金组织预测墨西哥经济将继续放缓

预计2025年增长率为1.3%，此后IMF预测2024年墨西哥经济将增长1.5%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its 2025 outlook for Mexico, predicting a slowdown in the country's economic growth. The report, which follows the IMF's routine ‘Article IV’ assessment of the Mexican economy, warns that Mexico needs to be prepared for slower global growth.

国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布了墨西哥2025年展望，预计该国经济增长将放缓。该报告是在国际货币基金组织对墨西哥经济进行例行“第四条”评估之后发布的，警告墨西哥需要为全球经济增长放缓做好准备。

According to the outlook, Mexico's economic growth is projected to reach 1.3% in 2025, following an anticipated growth of 1.5% in 2024. This slowdown is attributed to several factors, including capacity limitations, monetary policies, and external influences.

根据展望，墨西哥经济增长预计将在2024年增长1.5%之后，在2025年达到1.3%。这种放缓归因于多种因素，包括产能限制、货币政策和外部影响。

The report highlights the Mexican government's adoption of an expansionary fiscal policy, which is seen as a negative factor. However, it also notes that growth is being moderated by capacity constraints and the high interest rate regime maintained by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) in its fight against inflation.

报告强调了墨西哥政府采取的扩张性财政政策，这被视为一个负面因素。然而，报告也指出，由于产能限制和墨西哥银行（Banxico）为对抗通货膨胀而维持的高利率制度，经济增长正在放缓。

The IMF anticipates that Banxico's monetary policy tightening and the deceleration in activity will lead to inflation converging to the central bank's target of 3% by 2025.

国际货币基金组织预计，墨西哥央行的货币政策紧缩和经济活动放缓将导致通胀到 2025 年接近央行 3% 的目标。

Furthermore, the outlook estimates a slight increase in the current account deficit in 2024, due to a faster growth in investment and consumption-related import volumes compared to exports. This imbalance could put pressure on Mexico's external sustainability and potentially affect the stability of its currency.

此外，由于投资和消费相关的进口量比出口量增长更快，展望预计 2024 年经常账户赤字将略有增加。这种失衡可能会给墨西哥的外部可持续性带来压力，并可能影响其货币的稳定性。

The report also identifies several risks to Mexico's economic outlook. On the downside, risks include a downturn in the US market, which is Mexico's main trading partner and pembeli of half of its exports, could negatively impact Mexican exports and economic growth. Additionally, higher global risk aversion or unanticipated effects from recent institutional changes may also exert a negative influence on output and investors.

该报告还指出了墨西哥经济前景面临的一些风险。不利的一面是，风险包括墨西哥主要贸易伙伴美国市场的低迷，以及占其出口一半的彭贝利，可能对墨西哥的出口和经济增长产生负面影响。此外，全球避险情绪上升或近期制度变化带来的意外影响也可能对产出和投资者产生负面影响。

However, the IMF also notes potential upside risks. These include positive surprises in import demand from the US or the ongoing reshuffling of value-added production networks, which could offset the negative factors mentioned above.

然而，国际货币基金组织也注意到潜在的上行风险。其中包括美国进口需求的意外积极或增值生产网络的持续重组，这可能会抵消上述负面因素。

Another aspect examined by the IMF is Mexico's fiscal situation. The general consolidated budget deficit is expected to reach 5.9% of GDP in 2024, which would translate to a fiscal stimulus of about 2% of GDP.

国际货币基金组织审查的另一个方面是墨西哥的财政状况。预计到 2024 年，综合预算赤字将达到 GDP 的 5.9%，这意味着财政刺激将达到 GDP 的 2% 左右。

This expansionary fiscal stance is projected to increase the gross public sector borrowing requirement to around 57.8% of GDP by the end of 2024.

预计到 2024 年底，这种扩张性财政立场将使公共部门总借贷需求增加至 GDP 的 57.8% 左右。

According to the IMF, there is a possibility of a small fiscal slippage by year-end, due to either increased support for Pemex, a state ABS, or higher spending on infrastructure projects than initially estimated.

国际货币基金组织表示，由于对墨西哥国家石油公司（国家资产支持证券）的支持增加，或基础设施项目支出高于最初估计，到年底财政可能会出现小幅下滑。

In line with its assessment of fiscal policy, the IMF provides recommendations for Mexico, focusing on the development of a realistic and sustainable medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy.

根据其对财政政策的评估，国际货币基金组织为墨西哥提供了建议，重点是制定现实且可持续的中期财政整顿战略。

The new government plans to begin a gradual fiscal tightening in 2025 to reduce the deficit below 3 percent of GDP in the medium run. This plan, according to the IMF, should be based on well-specified policy measures and could be complemented by a comprehensive and well-designed tax reform.

新政府计划从2025年开始逐步实行财政紧缩，中期将赤字削减至GDP的3%以下。国际货币基金组织表示，该计划应以明确的政策措施为基础，并辅之以全面且精心设计的税收改革。

Specifically, regarding the revenue side for 2025, the IMF recommends cutting tax expenditures and reconsidering the taxation rates and bands, especially for the personal income tax (PIT).

具体而言，关于2025年的收入方面，国际货币基金组织建议削减税收支出并重新考虑税率和税率，特别是个人所得税（PIT）。

Other areas that could be rationalized to generate revenue for necessary fiscal adjustment and bolster market confidence include a broader assessment of tax exemptions and improvement in the tax administration system.

其他可以合理化以产生收入以进行必要的财政调整并增强市场信心的领域包括更广泛的免税评估和改善税收管理体系。

Throughout this process, the government's ability to implement credible fiscal consolidation while mitigating economic downturns will be crucial for Mexico.

在整个过程中，政府在缓解经济衰退的同时实施可靠的财政整顿的能力对墨西哥至关重要。

These projections underscore the importance of a sound policy mix in an IMF member country to achieve sustainable rates of economic growth and maintain fiscal and monetary discipline.

这些预测强调了国际货币基金组织成员国良好的政策组合对于实现可持续经济增长率和维持财政和货币纪律的重要性。

The coming months will be critical for the new Mexico administration as the country prepares to navigate both internal and external challenges and begins to execute its economic plan.

未来几个月对于墨西哥新政府来说至关重要，因为该国准备应对内部和外部挑战并开始执行其经济计划。

The outcome of these actions will be closely followed by Mexico, its trade partners, and other stakeholders in the LAC region.

墨西哥、其贸易伙伴以及拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的其他利益相关者将密切关注这些行动的结果。