宏觀/加密貨幣夏季來臨：金融市場典範轉移

著名交易大師 Raoul Pal 介紹了“宏觀/加密貨幣夏季”，這是受全球經濟週期推動的金融和加密貨幣市場的一個重要階段。從歷史上看，這段時期是金融狀況指數之前的時期，標誌著流動性上升的時期，推動了科技股、比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的成長。帕爾強調了過去宏觀夏季和秋季的急劇增長，特別是比特幣、以太坊和山寨幣，強調了這些週期與比特幣減半事件的一致性。

The Advent of the Macro/Crypto Summer: A Paradigm Shift in Financial Markets

宏觀/加密貨幣之夏的到來：金融市場的典範轉移

In an incisive analysis, Raoul Pal, the renowned trading guru and founder of Global Macro Investor and Real Vision, has shed light on the emergence of a transformative phase in financial markets: the "Macro/Crypto Summer." This period, Pal argues, transcends the confines of a mere seasonal phenomenon, representing a profound shift in the cyclical dynamics of the global economy, with profound implications for the cryptocurrency market.

著名交易大師、Global Macro Investor 和 Real Vision 創辦人 Raoul Pal 在深入分析中揭示了金融市場變革階段的出現：「宏觀/加密貨幣之夏」。帕爾認為，這段時期超越了單純季節性現象的範圍，代表了全球經濟週期性動態的深刻轉變，對加密貨幣市場產生了深遠的影響。

The Genesis of the Macro/Crypto Summer

宏觀/加密貨幣之夏的起源

Pal's concept of the "Macro Summer" finds its genesis in "The Everything Code" cycle, a recurring pattern in economic activity. The Financial Conditions Index, a barometer of financial stress, historically precedes this cycle by approximately ten months. During this phase, the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index, a key indicator of economic health, typically reaches its nadir, signaling the commencement of GDP growth.

帕爾的「宏觀夏季」概念起源於「一切代碼」週期，這是經濟活動中反覆出現的模式。金融狀況指數是金融壓力的晴雨表，從歷史上看，它比這個週期早大約十個月。在此階段，經濟健康狀況的關鍵指標 ISM（供應管理協會）指數通常會達到最低點，這標誌著 GDP 開始成長。

Pal underscores the "near-perfect 3 1/2 year cyclicality" in the ISM business cycle, driven by liquidity dynamics and the underlying debt refinancing cycle. Liquidity, Pal emphasizes, plays a pivotal role: "And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022... macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis."

帕爾強調，在流動性動態和潛在債務再融資週期的推動下，ISM 商業週期具有「近乎完美的 3 1/2 年週期性」。帕爾強調，流動性發揮關鍵作用：「這是由流動性驅動的，流動性於2022 年底觸底……宏觀夏季和秋季都是流動性上升的時期，也是《一切代碼》論文的核心部分。”

Liquidity's Impact on Financial Markets

流動性對金融市場的影響

This surge in liquidity exerts a transformative impact on tech stocks, which historically flourish during such phases. However, it is Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market that exhibit the most remarkable responses. Pal cites compelling growth figures from previous Macro Summer and Fall seasons to bolster his argument:

流動性的激增對科技股產生了變革性的影響，而科技股歷來在這些階段蓬勃發展。然而，表現出最顯著反應的是比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場。帕爾引用了先前宏觀夏季和秋季的令人信服的成長數據來支持他的論點：

• Bitcoin: Experienced surges of "2012/2013: +146x, 2016/2017: +30x, 2020/2021: +8x..."
• Ethereum: As an altcoin during the 2016/2017 and 2020/2021 cycles, achieved "2016/2017: +1,770x, 2020/2021: +41x."
• Altcoins (excluding ETH): Witnessed an aggregate market cap rise of "+24x" in the last cycle.

"Wild! When we just look at Altcoins ex-ETH (we only have shorter data for the last cycle), the entire market cap rose +24x! And that includes thousands of worthless tokens that didn't rise, so I'm not just cherry-picking winners here," Pal remarked.

比特幣：經歷了「2012/2013：+146x、2016/2017：+30x、2020/2021：+8x...」的飆升以太坊：作為一種山寨幣，在2016/2017 和2020/2021 週期中，實現了“2016/2016/2017：+30x”。2017 年：+1,770 倍，2020/2021 年：+41 倍。“山寨幣（不包括ETH）：在上一個週期見證了總市值上漲“ +24 倍」。「狂野！當我們只看ETH 以外的山寨幣時（我們僅上一個週期的數據較短），整個市值上漲了24 倍！其中包括數千個沒有上漲的毫無價值的代幣，所以我不僅僅是在這裡挑選獲勝者，」Pal 評論道。

The Case of DOGE: A Testament to Crypto Summer's Power

DOGE 案例：加密夏季力量的證明

Pal highlights DOGE, a popular meme coin, as a prime example of the "power of Crypto Summer and Fall." Its value experienced significant multipliers – "2016/2017: +136x, 2020/2021: +370x" – in the aforementioned cycles.

Pal 強調 DOGE（一種流行的迷因幣）是「加密貨幣夏季和秋季的力量」的典型例子。在上述週期中，其價值經歷了顯著的倍增—「2016/2017：+136x，2020/2021：+370x」。

These figures underscore the profound influence of macroeconomic cycles on crypto valuations, with Pal pointing out the alignment of these cycles with Bitcoin's halving events. "Crypto summer has started and fully develops post-halving," he states, highlighting the interconnectedness of these cycles with the broader financial landscape.

這些數字強調了宏觀經濟週期對加密貨幣估值的深遠影響，帕爾指出這些週期與比特幣減半事件的一致性。他表示：「加密貨幣夏季已經開始，並在減半後全面發展。」他強調了這些週期與更廣泛的金融格局的相互關聯性。

Looking Ahead: Liquidity Expectations and Global Monetary Policy

展望未來：流動性預期與全球貨幣政策

Pal's analysis extends beyond the past, peering into the future and projecting a continued rise in liquidity through the end of 2025. This anticipation stems from a complex interplay of global financial mechanisms, including the potential for increased US money printing in response to a massive ramp-up in interest payments and adjustments in Fed Net Liquidity and the Treasury General Account (TGA).

帕爾的分析超越了過去，展望了未來，並預測到2025 年底流動性將持續增加。這種預期源於全球金融機制的複雜相互作用，包括美國為應對大規模印鈔而增加印鈔的可能性利息支付以及聯準會淨流動性和財政部普通帳戶（TGA）的調整。

"Will the US join the summer party? [...] I know it seems impossible now, but the US is on the verge of a massive ramp-up in interest payments. [...] at some point – the balance sheet will stop shrinking, which is enough to unleash liquidity into the system. [...] I cannot see how they don't massively expand liquidity, one way or another.

「美國會加入夏季派對嗎？[...]我知道現在看來不可能，但美國正處於利息支付大幅增加的邊緣。[...]在某個時候——資產負債表將停止收縮，這足以向系統釋放流動性。[...]我不明白他們如何不以某種方式大規模擴大流動性。

Moreover, Pal predicts that the US may not be the sole contributor to liquidity injections into financial systems in the coming months. "I've no idea whether it's China, the EU, Japan, or the US that drives this or maybe a bit of all. Time will tell," he remarked.

此外，帕爾預測，美國可能不是未來幾個月向金融體系注入流動性的唯一貢獻者。 「我不知道是中國、歐盟、日本還是美國推動了這一進程，或者也許是所有因素共同推動了這一進程。時間會證明一切，」他表示。

Investment Strategies for the Macro/Crypto Summer

宏觀/加密貨幣夏季投資策略

Pal credits his investment strategies, particularly in tech and crypto, to the insights gleaned from The Everything Code. This approach has positioned him for the unfolding Macro Summer, with a keen focus on the altcoin market and the so-called "Banana Zone." He concludes:

帕爾將他的投資策略（尤其是在科技和加密貨幣領域）歸功於從 The Everything Code 中收集到的見解。這種方法使他能夠適應即將到來的宏觀夏季，重點關注山寨幣市場和所謂的「香蕉區」。他的結論是：

"But the bigger game is yet to be played out as Alt season arrives and we fully enter the Banana Zone. The Banana Zone cometh, and it is a huge wealth-generating machine. Patience will be rewarded. In the meantime, don't fuck this up. #DFTU"

「但更大的遊戲尚未上演，因為 Alt 季節到來，我們完全進入香蕉區。香蕉區到來了，它是一個巨大的財富生成機器。耐心會得到回報。同時，不要他媽的。#DFTU”

As of press time, BTC traded at $67,003.

截至發稿，BTC 交易價格為 67,003 美元。