宏观/加密货币夏季来临：金融市场范式转变

著名交易大师 Raoul Pal 介绍了“宏观/加密货币夏季”，这是受全球经济周期性推动的金融和加密货币市场的一个重要阶段。从历史上看，这一时期是金融状况指数之前的时期，标志着流动性上升的时期，推动了科技股、比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场的增长。帕尔强调了过去宏观夏季和秋季的急剧增长，特别是比特币、以太坊和山寨币，强调了这些周期与比特币减半事件的一致性。

The Advent of the Macro/Crypto Summer: A Paradigm Shift in Financial Markets

宏观/加密货币之夏的到来：金融市场的范式转变

In an incisive analysis, Raoul Pal, the renowned trading guru and founder of Global Macro Investor and Real Vision, has shed light on the emergence of a transformative phase in financial markets: the "Macro/Crypto Summer." This period, Pal argues, transcends the confines of a mere seasonal phenomenon, representing a profound shift in the cyclical dynamics of the global economy, with profound implications for the cryptocurrency market.

著名交易大师、Global Macro Investor 和 Real Vision 创始人拉乌尔·帕尔 (Raoul Pal) 在深入分析中揭示了金融市场变革阶段的出现：“宏观/加密货币之夏”。帕尔认为，这一时期超越了单纯季节性现象的范围，代表了全球经济周期性动态的深刻转变，对加密货币市场产生了深远的影响。

The Genesis of the Macro/Crypto Summer

宏观/加密货币之夏的起源

Pal's concept of the "Macro Summer" finds its genesis in "The Everything Code" cycle, a recurring pattern in economic activity. The Financial Conditions Index, a barometer of financial stress, historically precedes this cycle by approximately ten months. During this phase, the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index, a key indicator of economic health, typically reaches its nadir, signaling the commencement of GDP growth.

帕尔的“宏观夏季”概念起源于“一切代码”周期，这是经济活动中反复出现的模式。金融状况指数是金融压力的晴雨表，从历史上看，它比这个周期早大约十个月。在此阶段，经济健康状况的关键指标 ISM（供应管理协会）指数通常会达到最低点，标志着 GDP 开始增长。

Pal underscores the "near-perfect 3 1/2 year cyclicality" in the ISM business cycle, driven by liquidity dynamics and the underlying debt refinancing cycle. Liquidity, Pal emphasizes, plays a pivotal role: "And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022... macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis."

帕尔强调，在流动性动态和潜在债务再融资周期的推动下，ISM 商业周期具有“近乎完美的 3 1/2 年周期性”。帕尔强调，流动性发挥着关键作用：“这是由流动性驱动的，流动性于 2022 年底触底……宏观夏季和秋季都是流动性上升的时期，也是《一切代码》论文的核心部分。”

Liquidity's Impact on Financial Markets

流动性对金融市场的影响

This surge in liquidity exerts a transformative impact on tech stocks, which historically flourish during such phases. However, it is Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market that exhibit the most remarkable responses. Pal cites compelling growth figures from previous Macro Summer and Fall seasons to bolster his argument:

流动性的激增对科技股产生了变革性的影响，而科技股历来在这些阶段蓬勃发展。然而，表现出最显着反应的是比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场。帕尔引用了之前宏观夏季和秋季的令人信服的增长数据来支持他的论点：

• Bitcoin: Experienced surges of "2012/2013: +146x, 2016/2017: +30x, 2020/2021: +8x..."
• Ethereum: As an altcoin during the 2016/2017 and 2020/2021 cycles, achieved "2016/2017: +1,770x, 2020/2021: +41x."
• Altcoins (excluding ETH): Witnessed an aggregate market cap rise of "+24x" in the last cycle.

"Wild! When we just look at Altcoins ex-ETH (we only have shorter data for the last cycle), the entire market cap rose +24x! And that includes thousands of worthless tokens that didn't rise, so I'm not just cherry-picking winners here," Pal remarked.

比特币：经历了“2012/2013：+146x、2016/2017：+30x、2020/2021：+8x...”的飙升以太坊：作为一种山寨币，在 2016/2017 和 2020/2021 周期中，实现了“2016/2016/2017：+30x”。 2017 年：+1,770 倍，2020/2021 年：+41 倍。“山寨币（不包括 ETH）：在上一个周期见证了总市值上涨“+24 倍”。“狂野！当我们只看除 ETH 之外的山寨币时（我们仅上一个周期的数据较短），整个市值上涨了 24 倍！其中包括数千个没有上涨的毫无价值的代币，所以我不仅仅是在这里挑选获胜者，”Pal 评论道。

The Case of DOGE: A Testament to Crypto Summer's Power

DOGE 案例：加密夏季力量的证明

Pal highlights DOGE, a popular meme coin, as a prime example of the "power of Crypto Summer and Fall." Its value experienced significant multipliers – "2016/2017: +136x, 2020/2021: +370x" – in the aforementioned cycles.

Pal 强调 DOGE（一种流行的模因币）是“加密货币夏季和秋季的力量”的典型例子。在上述周期中，其价值经历了显着的倍增——“2016/2017：+136x，2020/2021：+370x”。

These figures underscore the profound influence of macroeconomic cycles on crypto valuations, with Pal pointing out the alignment of these cycles with Bitcoin's halving events. "Crypto summer has started and fully develops post-halving," he states, highlighting the interconnectedness of these cycles with the broader financial landscape.

这些数字强调了宏观经济周期对加密货币估值的深远影响，帕尔指出这些周期与比特币减半事件的一致性。他表示：“加密货币夏季已经开始，并在减半后全面发展。”他强调了这些周期与更广泛的金融格局的相互关联性。

Looking Ahead: Liquidity Expectations and Global Monetary Policy

展望未来：流动性预期和全球货币政策

Pal's analysis extends beyond the past, peering into the future and projecting a continued rise in liquidity through the end of 2025. This anticipation stems from a complex interplay of global financial mechanisms, including the potential for increased US money printing in response to a massive ramp-up in interest payments and adjustments in Fed Net Liquidity and the Treasury General Account (TGA).

帕尔的分析超越了过去，展望了未来，并预测到 2025 年底流动性将持续增加。这种预期源于全球金融机制的复杂相互作用，包括美国为应对大规模印钞而增加印钞的可能性利息支付以及美联储净流动性和财政部普通账户（TGA）的调整。

"Will the US join the summer party? [...] I know it seems impossible now, but the US is on the verge of a massive ramp-up in interest payments. [...] at some point – the balance sheet will stop shrinking, which is enough to unleash liquidity into the system. [...] I cannot see how they don't massively expand liquidity, one way or another.

“美国会加入夏季派对吗？[...]我知道现在看来不可能，但美国正处于利息支付大幅增加的边缘。[...]在某个时候——资产负债表将停止收缩，这足以向系统释放流动性。[...]我不明白他们如何不以某种方式大规模扩大流动性。

Moreover, Pal predicts that the US may not be the sole contributor to liquidity injections into financial systems in the coming months. "I've no idea whether it's China, the EU, Japan, or the US that drives this or maybe a bit of all. Time will tell," he remarked.

此外，帕尔预测，美国可能不是未来几个月向金融体系注入流动性的唯一贡献者。 “我不知道是中国、欧盟、日本还是美国推动了这一进程，或者也许是所有因素共同推动了这一进程。时间会证明一切，”他表示。

Investment Strategies for the Macro/Crypto Summer

宏观/加密货币夏季投资策略

Pal credits his investment strategies, particularly in tech and crypto, to the insights gleaned from The Everything Code. This approach has positioned him for the unfolding Macro Summer, with a keen focus on the altcoin market and the so-called "Banana Zone." He concludes:

帕尔将他的投资策略（尤其是在科技和加密货币领域）归功于从 The Everything Code 中收集到的见解。这种方法使他能够适应即将到来的宏观夏季，重点关注山寨币市场和所谓的“香蕉区”。他的结论是：

"But the bigger game is yet to be played out as Alt season arrives and we fully enter the Banana Zone. The Banana Zone cometh, and it is a huge wealth-generating machine. Patience will be rewarded. In the meantime, don't fuck this up. #DFTU"

“但更大的游戏尚未上演，因为 Alt 季节到来，我们完全进入香蕉区。香蕉区到来了，它是一个巨大的财富生成机器。耐心会得到回报。同时，不要他妈的。#DFTU”

As of press time, BTC traded at $67,003.

截至发稿，BTC 交易价格为 67,003 美元。