美國經濟陷入衰退的可能性正在在華爾街上升，一些經濟學家甚至看到50-50個賠率。

華爾街正在增加美國經濟陷入衰退的可能性，一些經濟學家看到50-50個賠率。那是因為唐納德·特朗普總統沒有表現出支持他積極的關稅計劃的跡象，包括將在幾週內生效的相互義務。

The probability of the US economy slipping into a recession is rising on Wall Street, with some economists now seeing 50-50 odds.

美國經濟陷入經濟衰退的可能性正在在華爾街上升，一些經濟學家現在看到50-50個賠率。

Earlier this month, market gurus Ed Yardeni and Eric Wallerstein said they see odds of a bear market and a tariff-induced recession at 35%, while Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian lifted his recession probability to 25%-30% from 10% at the beginning of the year.

本月早些時候，市場大師Ed Yardeni和Eric Wallerstein表示，他們認為熊市的機率和關稅引起的經濟衰退佔35％，而安聯的首席經濟顧問穆罕默德·埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）將其衰退概率從年初的10％提高到25％-30％。

The likelihood that the US economy will slip into a recession is rising on Wall Street, with some economists seeing 50-50 odds.

美國經濟陷入衰退的可能性在華爾街上升，一些經濟學家看到了50-50個賠率。

JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman told reporters in Singapore on Wednesday that he now sees a roughly 40% recession risk, up from about 30% at the start of the year.

摩根大通首席經濟學家布魯斯·卡斯曼（Bruce Kasman）週三對新加坡的記者說，他現在看到大約40％的衰退風險，高於今年年初的30％。

But he added that recession odds would rise to 50% or above if President Donald Trump's planned reciprocal tariffs, which are due to take effect April 2, meaningfully come in to force.

但他補充說，如果唐納德·特朗普總統計劃的互惠關稅將於4月2日生效，衰退的賠率將增加到50％或更高。

"If we would continue down this road of what would be more disruptive, business-unfriendly policies, I think the risks on that recession front would go up," Kasman said.

卡斯曼說：“如果我們繼續沿著這條道路上，那將是更具破壞性，商業上不友好的政策，我認為衰退方面的風險就會上升。”

Meanwhile, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned that the chances of a recession are about 50%, citing Trump's tariffs, immigration crackdown, and mass federal layoffs, which are combining to cause sharp reductions in consumer and business spending plans.

同時，前財政部長拉里·薩默斯（Larry Summers）警告說，經濟衰退的機會約為50％，理由是特朗普的關稅，移民鎮壓和大規模聯邦裁員，這些融合以促進消費者和商業支出計劃的急劇減少。

When economic forecasts start being revised in a certain direction, there tends to be momentum, he told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday. And all the revisions are going toward less growth.

當他在周二告訴彭博電視台時，當經濟預測開始朝著一定方向進行修訂時，往往會有動力。所有的修訂都將用於減少增長。

"I think we've got a real uncertainty problem," Summers added. "I think it's going to be hard to fix that. And we're looking at a slowdown relative to what was forecast almost for sure and serious near-50% prospect of recession."

薩默斯補充說：“我認為我們有一個真正的不確定性問題。” “我認為很難解決這個問題。而且，相對於幾乎肯定的預測，衰退的前景幾乎肯定是相對於預測的放緩。”

Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi raised his recession odds to 35% from 15% at the start of the, citing tariffs.

穆迪（Moody）的分析首席經濟學家馬克·贊迪（Mark Zandi）以關稅為特徵，將衰退的賠率從15％提高到35％。

But if Trump follows through with his tariff plans and stays there for more than a few months, that would be enough to push the economy into recession, he told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday.

但是，如果特朗普遵循他的關稅計劃並在那里呆了幾個月以上，這足以使經濟陷入衰退，他在周三告訴彭博電視台。

For now, he has hope that negotiations will lead to tariffs getting reeled back in, which is keeping his forecast below 50%.

就目前而言，他希望談判將導致關稅重新加入，這使他的預測低於50％。

"But I don't say that with any confidence with each passing day. And of course, the uncertainty around all of this is doing damage."

“但是我不會對每一天的信心充滿信心。當然，所有這一切的不確定性都在造成傷害。”

In fact, surveys of consumers and businesses show that they are turning increasingly gloomy about the economy amid tariff uncertainty and mass federal layoffs. Even executives in deep-red states that voted for Trump say seeing business conditions are collapsing.

實際上，對消費者和企業的調查表明，由於關稅不確定性和大規模聯邦裁員，他們對經濟變得越來越令人沮喪。即使是在深紅色州投票給特朗普的高管說，看到商業狀況正在崩潰。

Elsewhere on Wall Street, recession probabilities aren't as high, but they are rising sharply. Market gurus Ed Yardeni and Eric Wallerstein said earlier this month that they see odds of a bear market and a tariff-induced recession at 35%, which compares to 20% at the beginning of the year.

在華爾街的其他地方，經濟衰退的概率不高，但它們正在急劇上升。 Market Gurus Ed Yardeni和Eric Wallerstein本月早些時候表示，他們看到熊市市場的機率，而關稅引起的衰退佔35％，相比之下為20％。

And Allianz chief economic advisor Mohamed El-Erian lifted his recession probability to 25%-30% from 10% at the beginning of the year.

安聯的首席經濟顧問穆罕默德·埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）將衰退的可能性從今年年初的10％提高到25％-30％。

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was asked on NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday if he could guarantee there won't be a recession, and he replied that there are no guarantees, adding that his earlier comment of an economic adjustment doesn't mean there has to be a recession.

財政部長斯科特·貝斯特（Scott Bessent）在NBC的媒體上被問到他是否可以保證不會衰退，他回答說沒有保證，並補充說他先前對經濟調整的評論並不意味著必須有衰退。

"But I can tell you that if we kept on this track, what I could guarantee is we would have had a financial crisis. I've studied it. I've taught it. And if we had kept up at these spending levels, that everything was unsustainable. So we are resetting and we are putting things on a sustainable path."

“但是我可以告訴你，如果我們一直保持這一軌道，我可以保證的是，我們會遇到金融危機。我已經進行了研究。我已經教了它。如果我們保持在這些支出水平上，一切都是不可持續的。因此，我們正在重新安置，我們將事情置於可持續的道路上。”

For his part, Trump last weekend refused to rule out a recession, causing stocks to dive, then said days later that he doesn't see one coming. But Trump isn’t budging on his trade policies, saying Thursday that “I’m not going to bend at all.”

特朗普上週末，特朗普拒絕排除衰退，導致股票潛水，然後幾天后說，他沒有看到一個人來。但是特朗普並沒有採取他的貿易政策，他說：“我根本不會彎腰。”

And when asked about the sharp dive in approval in a recent CNN poll on how Americans view Trump's handling of the economy, the White House defended his economic plans and pointed to his record during his first term.

當被問及在最近的一項CNN的一項關於美國人如何看待特朗普的經濟處理的民意調查中，當被問及尖銳的潛水時，白宮捍衛了他的經濟計劃，並在他的第一任期內指出了他的記錄。

“Since President Trump was elected, industry leaders have responded to President Trump’s America First economic agenda of tariffs, deregulation, and the unleashing of American energy with trillions in investment commitments that will create thousands of new jobs,” spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement. “President Trump delivered historic job, wage, and investment growth in his first term, and is set to do so again in his second term.”

發言人庫什·德賽（Kush Desai）在一份聲明中說：“自特朗普總統當選以來，行業領導人已經回應了特朗普總統的美國首個關稅，放鬆管制和釋放美國能源的經濟議程，並以數万億美元的投資承諾將創造數千個新工作。” “特朗普總統在他的第一任期內完成了歷史性的工作，工資和投資增長，並將在第二任期內再次這樣做。”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

這個故事最初是在fortune.com上出現的