美国经济陷入衰退的可能性正在在华尔街上升，一些经济学家甚至看到50-50个赔率。

华尔街正在增加美国经济陷入衰退的可能性，一些经济学家看到50-50个赔率。那是因为唐纳德·特朗普总统没有表现出支持他积极的关税计划的迹象，包括将在几周内生效的相互义务。

The probability of the US economy slipping into a recession is rising on Wall Street, with some economists now seeing 50-50 odds.

美国经济陷入经济衰退的可能性正在在华尔街上升，一些经济学家现在看到50-50个赔率。

Earlier this month, market gurus Ed Yardeni and Eric Wallerstein said they see odds of a bear market and a tariff-induced recession at 35%, while Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian lifted his recession probability to 25%-30% from 10% at the beginning of the year.

本月早些时候，市场大师Ed Yardeni和Eric Wallerstein表示，他们认为熊市的几率和关税引起的经济衰退占35％，而安联的首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）将其衰退概率从年初的10％提高到25％-30％。

The likelihood that the US economy will slip into a recession is rising on Wall Street, with some economists seeing 50-50 odds.

美国经济陷入衰退的可能性在华尔街上升，一些经济学家看到了50-50个赔率。

JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman told reporters in Singapore on Wednesday that he now sees a roughly 40% recession risk, up from about 30% at the start of the year.

摩根大通首席经济学家布鲁斯·卡斯曼（Bruce Kasman）周三对新加坡的记者说，他现在看到大约40％的衰退风险，高于今年年初的30％。

But he added that recession odds would rise to 50% or above if President Donald Trump's planned reciprocal tariffs, which are due to take effect April 2, meaningfully come in to force.

但他补充说，如果唐纳德·特朗普总统计划的互惠关税将于4月2日生效，衰退的赔率将增加到50％或更高。

"If we would continue down this road of what would be more disruptive, business-unfriendly policies, I think the risks on that recession front would go up," Kasman said.

卡斯曼说：“如果我们继续沿着这条道路上，那将是更具破坏性，商业上不友好的政策，我认为衰退方面的风险就会上升。”

Meanwhile, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned that the chances of a recession are about 50%, citing Trump's tariffs, immigration crackdown, and mass federal layoffs, which are combining to cause sharp reductions in consumer and business spending plans.

同时，前财政部长拉里·萨默斯（Larry Summers）警告说，经济衰退的机会约为50％，理由是特朗普的关税，移民镇压和大规模联邦裁员，这些融合以促进消费者和商业支出计划的急剧减少。

When economic forecasts start being revised in a certain direction, there tends to be momentum, he told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday. And all the revisions are going toward less growth.

当他在周二告诉彭博电视台时，当经济预测开始朝着一定方向进行修订时，往往会有动力。所有的修订都将用于减少增长。

"I think we've got a real uncertainty problem," Summers added. "I think it's going to be hard to fix that. And we're looking at a slowdown relative to what was forecast almost for sure and serious near-50% prospect of recession."

萨默斯补充说：“我认为我们有一个真正的不确定性问题。” “我认为很难解决这个问题。而且，相对于几乎肯定的预测，衰退的前景几乎肯定是相对于预测的放缓。”

Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi raised his recession odds to 35% from 15% at the start of the, citing tariffs.

穆迪（Moody）的分析首席经济学家马克·赞迪（Mark Zandi）以关税为特征，将衰退的赔率从15％提高到35％。

But if Trump follows through with his tariff plans and stays there for more than a few months, that would be enough to push the economy into recession, he told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday.

但是，如果特朗普遵循他的关税计划并在那里呆了几个月以上，这足以使经济陷入衰退，他在周三告诉彭博电视台。

For now, he has hope that negotiations will lead to tariffs getting reeled back in, which is keeping his forecast below 50%.

就目前而言，他希望谈判将导致关税重新加入，这使他的预测低于50％。

"But I don't say that with any confidence with each passing day. And of course, the uncertainty around all of this is doing damage."

“但是我不会对每一天的信心充满信心。当然，所有这一切的不确定性都在造成伤害。”

In fact, surveys of consumers and businesses show that they are turning increasingly gloomy about the economy amid tariff uncertainty and mass federal layoffs. Even executives in deep-red states that voted for Trump say seeing business conditions are collapsing.

实际上，对消费者和企业的调查表明，由于关税不确定性和大规模联邦裁员，他们对经济变得越来越令人沮丧。即使是在深红色州投票给特朗普的高管说，看到商业状况正在崩溃。

Elsewhere on Wall Street, recession probabilities aren't as high, but they are rising sharply. Market gurus Ed Yardeni and Eric Wallerstein said earlier this month that they see odds of a bear market and a tariff-induced recession at 35%, which compares to 20% at the beginning of the year.

在华尔街的其他地方，经济衰退的概率不高，但它们正在急剧上升。 Market Gurus Ed Yardeni和Eric Wallerstein本月早些时候表示，他们看到熊市市场的几率，而关税引起的衰退占35％，相比之下为20％。

And Allianz chief economic advisor Mohamed El-Erian lifted his recession probability to 25%-30% from 10% at the beginning of the year.

安联的首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）将衰退的可能性从今年年初的10％提高到25％-30％。

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was asked on NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday if he could guarantee there won't be a recession, and he replied that there are no guarantees, adding that his earlier comment of an economic adjustment doesn't mean there has to be a recession.

财政部长斯科特·贝斯特（Scott Bessent）在NBC的媒体上被问到他是否可以保证不会衰退，他回答说没有保证，并补充说他先前对经济调整的评论并不意味着必须有衰退。

"But I can tell you that if we kept on this track, what I could guarantee is we would have had a financial crisis. I've studied it. I've taught it. And if we had kept up at these spending levels, that everything was unsustainable. So we are resetting and we are putting things on a sustainable path."

“但是我可以告诉你，如果我们一直保持这一轨道，我可以保证的是，我们会遇到金融危机。我已经进行了研究。我已经教了它。如果我们保持在这些支出水平上，一切都是不可持续的。因此，我们正在重新安置，我们将事情置于可持续的道路上。”

For his part, Trump last weekend refused to rule out a recession, causing stocks to dive, then said days later that he doesn't see one coming. But Trump isn’t budging on his trade policies, saying Thursday that “I’m not going to bend at all.”

特朗普上周末，特朗普拒绝排除衰退，导致股票潜水，然后几天后说，他没有看到一个人来。但是特朗普并没有采取他的贸易政策，他说：“我根本不会弯腰。”

And when asked about the sharp dive in approval in a recent CNN poll on how Americans view Trump's handling of the economy, the White House defended his economic plans and pointed to his record during his first term.

当被问及在最近的一项CNN的一项关于美国人如何看待特朗普的经济处理的民意调查中，当被问及尖锐的潜水时，白宫捍卫了他的经济计划，并在他的第一任期内指出了他的记录。

“Since President Trump was elected, industry leaders have responded to President Trump’s America First economic agenda of tariffs, deregulation, and the unleashing of American energy with trillions in investment commitments that will create thousands of new jobs,” spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement. “President Trump delivered historic job, wage, and investment growth in his first term, and is set to do so again in his second term.”

发言人库什·德赛（Kush Desai）在一份声明中说：“自特朗普总统当选以来，行业领导人已经回应了特朗普总统的美国首个关税，放松管制和释放美国能源的经济议程，并以数万亿美元的投资承诺将创造数千个新工作。” “特朗普总统在他的第一任期内完成了历史性的工作，工资和投资增长，并将在第二任期内再次这样做。”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

这个故事最初是在fortune.com上出现的