裡亞爾貶值、通膨飆升，伊朗經濟危機加劇

12月28日星期六，伊朗自由市場美元匯率飆升800托曼，達到81,700托曼。

Iran’s currency woes deepened on Saturday as the exchange rate of the US dollar in the free market surged by 800 tomans, reaching 81,700 tomans. Meanwhile, the British pound and the euro surpassed 103,000 tomans and 85,000 tomans, respectively.

週六，伊朗的貨幣困境進一步加深，美元在自由市場的匯率飆升800托曼，達到81,700托曼。同時，英鎊和歐元分別突破103,000托曼和85,000托曼。

This significant depreciation of the Iranian rial comes amid a sharp increase in currency prices over the past year: the dollar has jumped by 5% in the past week, 17% in the past month, and an alarming 63% over the past year. As in previous instances, this rapid devaluation is expected to ripple through the economy, driving up the prices of goods and services.

伊朗裡亞爾大幅貶值是在過去一年貨幣價格大幅上漲的背景下發生的：美元在過去一周上漲了5%，在過去一個月上漲了17%，在過去一年上漲了驚人的63%。與先前的情況一樣，這種快速貶值預計將波及整個經濟，並推高商品和服務的價格。

Inflation and Wages: A Growing Disparity

通貨膨脹和薪資：日益擴大的差距

Despite the acknowledgment by the head of Iran’s Central Bank of a 52% inflation rate in 2024, the government’s proposed 2025 budget includes only a 20% increase in workers’ wages.

儘管伊朗中央銀行行長承認2024年通膨率為52%，但政府擬議的2025年預算僅包括工人薪資成長20%。

This disparity highlights the mounting economic challenges faced by ordinary Iranians. The soaring currency exchange rates have been accompanied by record-breaking increases in gold prices.

這種差異凸顯了一般伊朗人面臨的日益嚴峻的經濟挑戰。貨幣匯率飆升伴隨著黃金價格破紀錄的上漲。

On the same Saturday, the price of various gold coins in Iran rose by 1.5% to 3.5%. For example, the Emami coin saw a 2% increase from Thursday, reaching 57,300,000 tomans, while the Bahar Azadi coin rose by over 1.5% in just 24 hours to 54,540,000 tomans. Over the past year, the price of the Bahar Azadi coin has surged by more than 109%.

同周六，伊朗各類金幣價格上漲1.5%至3.5%。例如，Emami 幣較週四上漲 2%，達到 57,300,000 托曼，而 Bahar Azadi 幣在短短 24 小時內上漲超過 1.5%，達到 54,540,000 托曼。過去一年，Bahar Azadi 幣的價格飆升了 109% 以上。

Broader Currency Fluctuations

更廣泛的貨幣波動

Other foreign currencies have also experienced sharp increases against the rial. The Swiss franc reached 90,500 tomans, the Canadian dollar 56,650 tomans, the Turkish lira 2,400 tomans, the UAE dirham 22,300 tomans, and the Chinese yuan exceeded 11,200 tomans.

其他外幣兌裡亞爾也大幅上漲。瑞士法郎達到90,500托曼，加幣達56,650托曼，土耳其里拉達到2,400托曼，阿聯酋迪拉姆達到22,300托曼，人民幣突破11,200托曼。

Over the last six months, Iran’s Central Bank has raised the NIMA rate—the official Foreign Exchange Transactions System rate—by more than 60%. This policy shift has significantly increased the cost of imported goods, further straining household budgets.

在過去六個月中，伊朗中央銀行已將 NIMA 利率（官方外匯交易系統利率）提高了 60% 以上。這項政策轉變顯著增加了進口商品的成本，進一步加劇了家庭預算的緊張。

Official Responses and Inadequate Measures

官方回應和措施不充分

The government’s inability to stabilize the rial has exacerbated Iran’s economic crisis. On December 23, during a meeting of the Economic Committee of the Parliament, Minister of Economy Abdolnaser Hemmati acknowledged the limitations of government intervention, stating, “A lot of things cannot be done by force, and a significant percentage of non-oil export currency does not return.”

政府無力穩定裡亞爾匯率，加劇了伊朗的經濟危機。 12 月23 日，在議會經濟委員會會議上，經濟部長阿卜杜勒納塞爾·赫馬提(Abdolnaser Hemmati) 承認政府乾預的局限性，他表示：「很多事情無法透過武力完成，很大一部分非石油出口貨幣不會回來。

Given the current economic conditions, a proposed 20% salary increase for next year—which may rise to 30% with parliamentary intervention—is unlikely to offset the impact of a 63% increase in the dollar rate and 52% inflation. This imbalance will likely exacerbate poverty levels across Iranian society.

考慮到目前的經濟狀況，明年加薪 20% 的提議——在議會幹預下可能會升至 30%——不太可能抵消美元匯率上漲 63% 和通貨膨脹 52% 的影響。這種不平衡可能會加劇伊朗社會的貧窮程度。

Compounding Crises

危機加劇

The economic turmoil is compounded by a series of overlapping crises. Frequent power outages, factory closures, and intensifying air pollution—which has reached toxic levels—have created additional burdens.

一系列重疊的危機加劇了經濟動盪。頻繁的停電、工廠關閉和空氣污染加劇（已達到有毒水平）造成了額外的負擔。

Public goods and services such as education, healthcare, and sports have become increasingly expensive, while gas shortages and soaring housing rents add to the pressure.

教育、醫療和體育等公共產品和服務變得越來越昂貴，而天然氣短缺和房價飆升也加劇了壓力。

Social issues, including rising crime rates and a 100% increase in street robberies over the past year, further illustrate the deteriorating living conditions. Environmental degradation and the regime’s costly support for proxy forces and regional conflicts continue to drain the nation’s wealth, leaving society under ever-mounting strain.

過去一年犯罪率上升、街頭搶劫增加100%等社會問題進一步說明了生活條件的惡化。環境惡化、政權對代理人勢力的昂貴支持以及地區衝突持續耗盡國家的財富，使社會承受越來越大的壓力。

“Natural” Currency Devaluation?

「自然」貨幣貶值？

In a stark illustration of the government’s stance, Jafar Ghaderi, the first vice-chairman of the Economic Commission in Parliament, described the rising prices of currency and basic goods as “natural.” Speaking last Thursday, he asserted that no one should expect a decrease in the dollar’s value.

議會經濟委員會第一副主席賈法爾·加德里 (Jafar Ghaderi) 形容貨幣和基本商品價格上漲是“自然的”，這鮮明地體現了政府的立場。他在上週四發表演說時斷言，沒有人應該預期美元會貶值。

Conclusion

結論

Iran’s spiraling economic crisis highlights systemic failures in managing inflation, stabilizing the currency, and addressing public needs.

伊朗不斷升級的經濟危機凸顯了在管理通膨、穩定貨幣和滿足公共需求方面的系統性失敗。

As inflation and poverty rise hand in hand, the Iranian government’s limited and inconsistent responses are leaving millions of citizens to bear the brunt of these challenges.

隨著通貨膨脹和貧困齊頭並進，伊朗政府有限且不一致的應對措施使數百萬公民首當其沖地承受這些挑戰。

Without comprehensive changes and effective economic policies, the situation is likely to worsen, deepening the plight of Iranian society.

如果沒有全面的變革和有效的經濟政策，局勢可能會惡化，加深伊朗社會的困境。