里亚尔贬值、通胀飙升，伊朗经济危机加剧

12月28日星期六，伊朗自由市场美元汇率飙升800托曼，达到81,700托曼。

Iran’s currency woes deepened on Saturday as the exchange rate of the US dollar in the free market surged by 800 tomans, reaching 81,700 tomans. Meanwhile, the British pound and the euro surpassed 103,000 tomans and 85,000 tomans, respectively.

周六，伊朗的货币困境进一步加深，美元在自由市场的汇率飙升800托曼，达到81,700托曼。与此同时，英镑和欧元分别突破103,000托曼和85,000托曼。

This significant depreciation of the Iranian rial comes amid a sharp increase in currency prices over the past year: the dollar has jumped by 5% in the past week, 17% in the past month, and an alarming 63% over the past year. As in previous instances, this rapid devaluation is expected to ripple through the economy, driving up the prices of goods and services.

伊朗里亚尔大幅贬值是在过去一年货币价格大幅上涨的背景下发生的：美元在过去一周上涨了5%，在过去一个月上涨了17%，在过去一年上涨了惊人的63%。与之前的情况一样，这种快速贬值预计将波及整个经济，推高商品和服务的价格。

Inflation and Wages: A Growing Disparity

通货膨胀和工资：日益扩大的差距

Despite the acknowledgment by the head of Iran’s Central Bank of a 52% inflation rate in 2024, the government’s proposed 2025 budget includes only a 20% increase in workers’ wages.

尽管伊朗中央银行行长承认2024年通胀率为52%，但政府拟议的2025年预算仅包括工人工资增长20%。

This disparity highlights the mounting economic challenges faced by ordinary Iranians. The soaring currency exchange rates have been accompanied by record-breaking increases in gold prices.

这种差异凸显了普通伊朗人面临的日益严峻的经济挑战。货币汇率飙升伴随着黄金价格破纪录的上涨。

On the same Saturday, the price of various gold coins in Iran rose by 1.5% to 3.5%. For example, the Emami coin saw a 2% increase from Thursday, reaching 57,300,000 tomans, while the Bahar Azadi coin rose by over 1.5% in just 24 hours to 54,540,000 tomans. Over the past year, the price of the Bahar Azadi coin has surged by more than 109%.

同周六，伊朗各类金币价格上涨1.5%至3.5%。例如，Emami 币较周四上涨 2%，达到 57,300,000 托曼，而 Bahar Azadi 币在短短 24 小时内上涨超过 1.5%，达到 54,540,000 托曼。过去一年，Bahar Azadi 币的价格飙升了 109% 以上。

Broader Currency Fluctuations

更广泛的货币波动

Other foreign currencies have also experienced sharp increases against the rial. The Swiss franc reached 90,500 tomans, the Canadian dollar 56,650 tomans, the Turkish lira 2,400 tomans, the UAE dirham 22,300 tomans, and the Chinese yuan exceeded 11,200 tomans.

其他外币兑里亚尔也大幅上涨。瑞士法郎达到90,500托曼，加元达到56,650托曼，土耳其里拉达到2,400托曼，阿联酋迪拉姆达到22,300托曼，人民币突破11,200托曼。

Over the last six months, Iran’s Central Bank has raised the NIMA rate—the official Foreign Exchange Transactions System rate—by more than 60%. This policy shift has significantly increased the cost of imported goods, further straining household budgets.

在过去六个月中，伊朗中央银行已将 NIMA 利率（官方外汇交易系统利率）提高了 60% 以上。这一政策转变显着增加了进口商品的成本，进一步加剧了家庭预算的紧张。

Official Responses and Inadequate Measures

官方回应和措施不充分

The government’s inability to stabilize the rial has exacerbated Iran’s economic crisis. On December 23, during a meeting of the Economic Committee of the Parliament, Minister of Economy Abdolnaser Hemmati acknowledged the limitations of government intervention, stating, “A lot of things cannot be done by force, and a significant percentage of non-oil export currency does not return.”

政府无力稳定里亚尔汇率，加剧了伊朗的经济危机。 12 月 23 日，在议会经济委员会会议上，经济部长阿卜杜勒纳塞尔·赫马提 (Abdolnaser Hemmati) 承认政府干预的局限性，他表示：“很多事情无法通过武力完成，很大一部分非石油出口货币不会回来。”

Given the current economic conditions, a proposed 20% salary increase for next year—which may rise to 30% with parliamentary intervention—is unlikely to offset the impact of a 63% increase in the dollar rate and 52% inflation. This imbalance will likely exacerbate poverty levels across Iranian society.

考虑到目前的经济状况，明年加薪 20% 的提议——在议会干预下可能会升至 30%——不太可能抵消美元汇率上涨 63% 和通货膨胀 52% 的影响。这种不平衡可能会加剧伊朗社会的贫困程度。

Compounding Crises

危机加剧

The economic turmoil is compounded by a series of overlapping crises. Frequent power outages, factory closures, and intensifying air pollution—which has reached toxic levels—have created additional burdens.

一系列重叠的危机加剧了经济动荡。频繁的停电、工厂关闭和空气污染加剧（已达到有毒水平）造成了额外的负担。

Public goods and services such as education, healthcare, and sports have become increasingly expensive, while gas shortages and soaring housing rents add to the pressure.

教育、医疗和体育等公共产品和服务变得越来越昂贵，而天然气短缺和房价飙升也加剧了压力。

Social issues, including rising crime rates and a 100% increase in street robberies over the past year, further illustrate the deteriorating living conditions. Environmental degradation and the regime’s costly support for proxy forces and regional conflicts continue to drain the nation’s wealth, leaving society under ever-mounting strain.

过去一年犯罪率上升、街头抢劫增加100%等社会问题进一步说明了生活条件的恶化。环境恶化、该政权对代理人势力的昂贵支持以及地区冲突继续耗尽国家的财富，使社会承受越来越大的压力。

“Natural” Currency Devaluation?

“自然”货币贬值？

In a stark illustration of the government’s stance, Jafar Ghaderi, the first vice-chairman of the Economic Commission in Parliament, described the rising prices of currency and basic goods as “natural.” Speaking last Thursday, he asserted that no one should expect a decrease in the dollar’s value.

议会经济委员会第一副主席贾法尔·加德里 (Jafar Ghaderi) 形容货币和基本商品价格上涨是“自然的”，这鲜明地体现了政府的立场。他在上周四发表讲话时断言，没有人应该预期美元会贬值。

Conclusion

结论

Iran’s spiraling economic crisis highlights systemic failures in managing inflation, stabilizing the currency, and addressing public needs.

伊朗不断升级的经济危机凸显了在管理通胀、稳定货币和满足公共需求方面的系统性失败。

As inflation and poverty rise hand in hand, the Iranian government’s limited and inconsistent responses are leaving millions of citizens to bear the brunt of these challenges.

随着通货膨胀和贫困齐头并进，伊朗政府有限且不一致的应对措施使数百万公民首当其冲地承受这些挑战。

Without comprehensive changes and effective economic policies, the situation is likely to worsen, deepening the plight of Iranian society.

如果没有全面的变革和有效的经济政策，局势可能会恶化，加深伊朗社会的困境。